Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe

The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234?C3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard.     

A hybrid optimization scheme for self-potential measurements due to multiple sheet-like bodies in arbitrary 2D resistivity distributions

Self-potential is a passive geophysical method that can be applied in a straightforward manner with minimum requirements in the field. Nonetheless, interpretation of self-potential data is particularly challenging due to the inherited non-uniqueness present in all potential methods. Incorporating information regarding the target of interest can facilitate interpretation and increase the reliability of the final output. In the current paper, a novel method for detecting multiple sheet-like targets is presented. A numerical framework is initially described that simulates sheet-like bodies in an arbitrary 2D resistivity distribution. A scattered field formulation based on finite differences is employed that allows the edges of the sheet to be independent of the grid geometry. A novel analytical solution for two-layered models is derived and subsequently used to validate the accuracy of the proposed numerical scheme. Lastly, a hybrid optimization is proposed that couples linear least-squares with particle-swarm optimization in order to effectively locate the edges of multiple sheet-like bodies. Through numerical and real data, it is proven that the hybrid optimization overcomes local minimal that occurs in complex resistivity distributions and converges substantially faster compared to traditional particle-swarm optimization.     

Field Survey of the 27 February 2010 Chile Tsunami

On 27 February 2010, a magnitude M _w?=?8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile??s Maule region causing substantial damage and loss of life. Ancestral tsunami knowledge from the 1960 event combined with education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate after the earthquake. Many of the tsunami victims were tourists in coastal campgrounds. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event and surveyed 800?km of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín and the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Mocha, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter). The collected survey data include more than 400 tsunami flow depth, runup and coastal uplift measurements. The tsunami peaked with a localized runup of 29?m on a coastal bluff at Constitución. The observed runup distributions exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. Observations from the 2010 and 1960 Chile tsunamis are compared.     

Topography-adjusted solar radiation indices and their importance in hydrology

Abstract

Solar radiation, direct and diffuse, is affected by surface characteristics, such as slope, aspect, altitude and shading. The paper examines the effects of topography on radiation, at multiple spatiotemporal scales, using suitable geometric methods for the direct and diffuse components. Two indices are introduced for comparing the direct radiation received by areas at the same and different latitudes. To investigate the profile of direct radiation across the whole of Greece, these are evaluated from an hourly to annual basis, via GIS techniques. Moreover, different approaches are examined for estimating the actual global radiation at operational spatial scales (sub-basin and terrain), according to the available meteorological data. The study indicates that the errors of typical hydrometeorological modelling formulas, which ignore the topographic effects and the seasonal allocation of direct and diffuse radiation, depend on the spatial scale and are non-uniformly distributed in time. In all cases, the estimations are improved by applying the proposed adjustment approaches. In particular, the adjustment of the measured global radiation ensures up to 10% increase of efficiency, while the modified Angström formula achieves slight (i.e. 2–4%) increase of efficiency and notable reduction of bias.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Mamassis, N., Efstratiadis, A. and Apostolidou, I.-G., 2012. Topography-adjusted solar radiation indices and their importance in hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 756–775.     

Isotope Geochemistry of the Pb-Zn-Ba(-Ag-Au) Mineralization at Triades-Galana,Milos Island,Greece

The Pb-Zn-Ba(-Ag-Au) mineralization in the Triades and Galana mine areas is hosted in 2.5–1.4 Ma pyroclastic rocks, and structurally controlled mostly by NE-SW or N-S trending brittle faults. Proximal pervasive silica and distal pervasive sericite-illite alteration are the two main alteration types present at the surface. The distribution of mineralization-alteration in the district suggests at least two hydrothermal events or that hydrothermal activity lasted longer at Galana. The Sr isotope signature of sphalerite and barite (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.709162 to 0.710214) and calculated oxygen isotope composition of a fluid in equilibrium with barite and associated quartz at temperatures of around 230°C are suggestive of a seawater hydrothermal system and fluid/rock interaction. Lead isotope ratios of galena and sphalerite (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb from 18.8384 to 18.8711; ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb from 15.6695 to 15.6976; ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb from 38.9158 to 39.0161) are similar to those of South Aegean Arc volcanic and Aegean Miocene plutonic rocks, and compatible with Pb derived from an igneous source. Galena and sphalerite from Triades-Galana have δ³⁴S_VCDT values ranging from +1 to +3.6‰, whereas barite sulfate shows δ³⁴S_VCDT values from +22.8 to +24.4‰. The sulfur isotope signatures of these minerals are explained by seawater sulfate reduction processes. The new analytical data are consistent with a seawater-dominated hydrothermal system and interaction of the hydrothermal fluid with the country rocks, which are the source of the ore metals.     

Tectonic and sedimentological evolution of the Pliocene–Quaternary basins of Zakynthos island, Greece: case study of the transition from compressional to extensional tectonics

Pliocene–Quaternary basins of the Ionian islands evolved in a complex tectonic setting that evolved from a mid to late Cenozoic compressional zone of the northern external Hellenides to the rapidly extending Pliocene–Quaternary basins of the Peloponnese. The northern limit of the Hellenic Trench marks the junction of these two tectonic regimes. A foreland-propagating fold and thrust system in the northern external Hellenides segmented the former Miocene continental margin basin in Zakynthos and permitted diapiric intrusion of Triassic gypsum along thrust ramps. Further inboard, coeval extensional basins developed, with increasing rates of subsidence from the Pliocene to Quaternary, resulting in four principal types of sedimentation: (1) condensed shelf-sedimentation on the flanks of rising anticlines; (2) coarse-grained sedimentation in restricted basins adjacent to evaporitic diapirs rising along thrust ramps; (3) larger basins between fold zones were filled by extrabasinal, prodeltaic mud and sand from the proto-Acheloos river; (4) margins of subsiding Quaternary basins were supplied at sea-level highstands by distal deltaic muds and at lowstands by locally derived coarse clastic sediment.     

Modern fan deltas in the western Gulf of Corinth,Greece

Rivers in the western Gulf of Corinth have built gravelly fan deltas into waters 100–300 m deep. Seismic profiles (3.5 kHz) and gravity cores show that sand-filled channels extend seaward of modern distributary mouths and lead to sandy depositional lobes in deeper water. Much of the fan delta slope is underlain by mud. Closely spaced gullies cut the interchannel ridges on either side of the main channels. Incised slope valleys occur on east-facing slopes, where the wave fetch is greatest, and may be formed by rip-current-induced turbidity currents.     

Numerical modeling of centrifuge cyclic lateral pile load experiments

To gain insight into the inelastic behavior of piles, the response of a vertical pile embedded in dry sand and subjected to cyclic lateral loading was studied experimentally in centrifuge tests conducted in Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussées. Three types of cyclic loading were applied, two asymmetric and one symmetric with respect to the unloaded pile. An approximately square-root variation of soil stiffness with depth was obtained from indirect in-flight density measurements, laboratory tests on re...     

Building design based on energy dissipation: a critical assessment

The basic objective of this study is the assessment of the European seismic design codes and in particular of EC2 and EC8 with respect to the recommended behaviour factor q. The assessment is performed on two reinforced concrete multi-storey buildings, having symmetrical and non-symmetrical plan view respectively, which were optimally designed under four different values of the behaviour factor. In the mathematical formulation of the optimization problem the initial construction cost is considered as the objective function to be minimized while the cross sections and steel reinforcement of the beams and the columns constitute the design variables. The provisions of Eurocodes 2 and 8 are imposed as constraints to the optimization problem. Life-cycle cost analysis, in conjunction with structural optimization, is believed to be a reliable procedure for assessing the performance of structures during their life time. The two most important findings that can be deduced are summarized as follows: (1) The proposed Eurocode behaviour factor does not lead to a more economical design with respect to the total life-cycle cost compared to other values of q (q = 1, 2). (2) The differences of the total life-cycle cost values may be substantially greater than those observed for the initial construction cost for four different q (q = 1, 2, 3, 4).