Development and testing of the Revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney (RMMF) soil erosion model under different pedological datasets

The study aims to investigate the effect of soil properties delineation on erosion modelling. To that end, the soil attributes of the Venetikos River catchment, northwestern Greece, are described using two pedological datasets, i.e. field samples and classification maps. The goal is to select the most appropriate for the accurate estimation of erosion. The Revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney (RMMF) model is developed per base map (annual or multi-annual), keeping all other parameters unchanged. Modelled sediment yield (SY) values are validated against “observed” ones, calculated utilizing the sediment rating curve methodology. Overall, the classification maps approach (164.35 t km^-2 year^?1) performed better than the soil samples one (82.97 t km^-2 year^?1), displaying higher convergence to the synthetic SY (548.9 t km^-2 year^?1). The discrepancy among approaches is attributed to the different computation methodologies (thus pedological background) used. Both approximations successfully identified the high-risk erosion areas. The same conclusions arose from the multi-annual application of the model.     

Optimal multi-step collocation: application to the space-wise approach for GOCE data analysis

Collocation is widely used in physical geodesy. Its application requires to solve systems with a dimension equal to the number of observations, causing numerical problems when many observations are available. To overcome this drawback, tailored step-wise techniques are usually applied. An example of these step-wise techniques is the space-wise approach to the GOCE mission data processing. The original idea of this approach was to implement a two-step procedure, which consists of first predicting gridded values at satellite altitude by collocation and then deriving the geo-potential spherical harmonic coefficients by numerical integration. The idea was generalized to a multi-step iterative procedure by introducing a time-wise Wiener filter to reduce the highly correlated observation noise. Recent studies have shown how to optimize the original two-step procedure, while the theoretical optimization of the full multi-step procedure is investigated in this work. An iterative operator is derived so that the final estimated spherical harmonic coefficients are optimal with respect to the Wiener–Kolmogorov principle, as if they were estimated by a direct collocation. The logical scheme used to derive this optimal operator can be applied not only in the case of the space-wise approach but, in general, for any case of step-wise collocation. Several numerical tests based on simulated realistic GOCE data are performed. The results show that adding a pre-processing time-wise filter to the two-step procedure of data gridding and spherical harmonic analysis is useful, in the sense that the accuracy of the estimated geo-potential coefficients is improved. This happens because, in its practical implementation, the gridding is made by collocation over local patches of data, while the observation noise has a time-correlation so long that it cannot be treated inside the patch size. Therefore, the multi-step operator, which is in theory equivalent to the two-step operator and to the direct collocation, is in practice superior thanks to the time-wise filter that reduces the noise correlation before the gridding. The criteria for the choice of this filter are investigated numerically.     

Deformation patterns in the southwestern part of the Mediterranean Ridge (South Matapan Trench,Western Greece)

Seismic reflection data and bathymetry analyses, together with geological information, are combined in the present work to identify seabed structural deformation and crustal structure in the Western Mediterranean Ridge (the backstop and the South Matapan Trench). As a first step, we apply bathymetric data and state of art methods of pattern recognition to automatically detect seabed lineaments, which are possibly related to the presence of tectonic structures (faults). The resulting pattern is tied to seismic reflection data, further assisting in the construction of a stratigraphic and structural model for this part of the Mediterranean Ridge. Structural elements and stratigraphic units in the final model are estimated based on: (a) the detected lineaments on the seabed, (b) the distribution of the interval velocities and the presence of velocity inversions, (c) the continuity and the amplitudes of the seismic reflections, the seismic structure of the units and (d) well and stratigraphic data as well as the main tectonic structures from the nearest onshore areas. Seabed morphology in the study area is probably related with the past and recent tectonics movements that result from African and European plates’ convergence. Backthrusts and reverse faults, flower structures and deep normal faults are among the most important extensional/compressional structures interpreted in the study area.     

The contribution of anthropogenic forcings to regional changes in temperature during the last decade

Regional distributions of the mean annual temperature in the 2000s are computed with and without the effect of anthropogenic influences on the climate in several sub-continental regions. Simulated global patterns of the temperature response to external forcings are regressed against observations using optimal fingerprinting. The global analysis provides constraints which are then used to construct the regional temperature distributions. A similar approach was also employed in previous work, but here the methodology is extended to examine changes in any region, including areas with a poor observational coverage that were omitted in the earlier study. Two different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used in the analysis. Anthropogenic forcings are found to have at least quadrupled the likelihood of occurrence of a year warmer than the warmest year since 1900 in 23 out of the 24 regions. The temperature distributions computed with the two models are very similar. While a more detailed assessment of model dependencies remains to be made once additional suitable GCM simulations become available, the present study introduces the statistical methodology and demonstrates its first application. The derived information concerning the effect of human influences on the regional climate is useful for adaptation planning. Moreover, by pre-computing the change in the likelihood of exceeding a temperature threshold over a range of thresholds, this kind of analysis enables a near real-time assessment of the anthropogenic impact on the observed regional temperatures.     

Improved equations for eccentricity generation in hierarchical triple systems

In a series of papers, we developed a technique for estimating the inner eccentricity in hierarchical triple systems, with the inner orbit being initially circular. However, for certain combinations of the masses and the orbital elements, the secular part of the solution failed. In this paper, we derive a new solution for the secular part of the inner eccentricity, which corrects the previous weakness. The derivation applies to hierarchical triple systems with coplanar and initially circular orbits. The new formula is tested numerically by integrating the full equations of motion for systems with mass ratios from 10⁻³ to 10³. We also present more numerical results for short-term eccentricity evolution, in order to get a better picture of the behaviour of the inner eccentricity.     

Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales

Cold related mortality among people aged over 50 in England and Wales has decreased at a rate of 85 deaths per million population per year over the period 1976–2005. This trend is two orders of magnitude higher than the increase in heat-related mortality observed after 1976. Long term changes in temperature-related mortality may be linked to human activity, natural climatic forcings, or to adaptation of the population to a wider range of temperatures. Here we employ optimal detection, a formal statistical methodology, to carry out an end to end attribution analysis. We find that adaptation is a major influence on changing mortality rates. We also find that adaptation has prevented a significant increase in heat-related mortality and considerably enhanced a significant decrease in cold-related mortality. Our analysis suggests that in the absence of adaptation, the human influence on climate would have been the main contributor to increases in heat-related mortality and decreases in cold-related mortality.     

Assessing water stress in Mediterranean lotic systems: insights from an artificially intermittent river in Greece

Water stress in Mediterranean countries is the result of both variable and changing climatic conditions and widespread anthropogenic pressures. Evrotas, an intermittent river located in Southern Greece, was used as a case study to assess the impacts of water stress on Mediterranean lotic ecosystems. Based on hydrological analyses, it was revealed that during prolonged drought years, such as the summers of 2007 and 2008, the vast majority of the Evrotas riverbed was completely desiccated, primarily as a result of substantial water abstraction for irrigation. The effects of desiccation on the riverine ecosystem were evaluated using fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages according to the demands of the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC (WFD). Faunal responses to water stress were assessed through comparisons of assemblages attributes in perennial and intermittent reaches and pre-drought versus post-drought communities. Effects of hydrological disturbance on fish species richness, density, percentage composition and size structure were more pronounced in intermittent than in perennial sites. The most obvious and immediate impact was the elimination of populations in the intermittent reaches. However, upon flow resumption, the recolonisation from upstream perennial reaches began, thereby permitting partial re-establishment of the depleted fish communities. Nevertheless, the structural integrity of fish communities remained severely impacted and recovery was markedly slow. On the contrary, post-drought macroinvertebrate assemblages were not affected by summer droughts, and the recruitment processes were rapid after flow resumption. Our findings point to the necessity of establishing a distinction between naturally and artificially driven intermittent rivers. We, therefore, propose the introduction of an “artificially intermittent Mediterranean river” condition within the context of the WFD assessment applications.     

Identification of hydrologic and geochemical pathways using high frequency sampling,REE aqueous sampling and soil characterization at Koiliaris Critical Zone Observatory,Crete

Koiliaris River watershed is a Critical Zone Observatory that represents severely degraded soils due to intensive agricultural activities and biophysical factors. It has typical Mediterranean soils under the imminent threat of desertification which is expected to intensify due to projected climate change. High frequency hydro-chemical monitoring with targeted sampling for Rare Earth Elements (REE) analysis of different water bodies and geochemical characterization of soils were used for the identification of hydrologic and geochemical pathways. The high frequency monitoring of water chemical data highlighted the chemical alterations of water in Koiliaris River during flash flood events. Soil physical and chemical characterization surveys were used to identify erodibility patterns within the watershed and the influence of soils on surface and ground water chemistry. The methodology presented can be used to identify the impacts of degraded soils to surface and ground water quality as well as in the design of methods to minimize the impacts of land use practices.