Contribution of Global Warming and Atmospheric Circulation to the Hottest Spring in Eastern China in 2018

The spring of 2018 was the hottest on record since 1951 over eastern China based on station observations, being 2.5°C higher than the 1961-90 mean and with more than 900 stations reaching the record spring mean temperature. This event exerted serious impacts in the region on agriculture, plant phenology, electricity transmission systems, and human health. In this paper, the contributions of human-induced climate change and anomalous anticyclonic circulation to this event are investigated using t...     

Probabilistic estimates of recent changes in temperature: a multi-scale attribution analysis

The role of anthropogenic forcings in temperature changes during recent decades is investigated over a range of spatial scales. Changes in the annual mean surface temperature and also in the warmest night of the year, which has implications for human health, are considered. Distributions of regional trends with and without the effect of human activity are produced, using constraints from a global optimal detection analysis. Anthropogenic forcings are estimated to have more than doubled the likelihood of mean warming in all regions considered except central North America, where results are more model dependent. The likelihood of warming of the warmest night has also increased, but the estimated change is more uncertain. Inferences on sub-continental scales are indicative rather than definitive because of the absence of locally important forcings and processes in model simulations, as well as model biases. As model inconsistencies may impact regional analyses, a multi-model approach is essential.     

Dissolved organic nitrogen as an indicator of livestock impacts on soil biochemical quality

Soil degradation in the Mediterranean and other arid and semi-arid regions of the world is caused mainly by cultivation and grazing. A consequence of de-vegetation due to overgrazing has been a decrease in organic matter (litter) input to soil and a decrease of aggregate size and stability making soils more susceptible to erosion and to organic matter losses. This study provided evidence linking the Dissolved Organic Nitrogen (DON) export from river basins to livestock grazing intensity and the resulting decrease in vegetation. Koiliaris River Basin in Crete was selected to study the effects of livestock grazing on water quality because it offers a unique morphologic situation due to its karstic hydrogeology draining the upland grazing areas through karstic springs. Mass balance calculations of N loads indicated that organic N is behaving as a conservative substance. It is postulated that the two potential mechanisms of Mineralization–Immobilization-Turnover and Direct Uptake did not operate in the degraded soils of the karst and arguments are presented justifying the hypothesis. De-vegetated soils of the area had lower C and N content, the same bacterial count, but lower microbial activity, lower fungi counts and species richness and lower mineralizable N compared to naturally vegetated soils. DON was the predominant N species in both extracted soluble N pools. De-vegetated soils had lower decomposition potential compared to vegetated soils. Mineralization and plant uptake appeared to be restricted and leaching of soluble low aromaticity organic matter was favored. A linear relationship between DON export and livestock N load was obtained for five Greek basins suggesting a mechanism that operates on regional scales. The de-vegetation of grazing lands in Koiliaris River highland calcaric leptosols was shown to be a primary factor causing the decline of soil biochemical quality and DON can be used as a reliable indicator for livestock grazing impacts to soil biochemical quality.     

Eccentricity evolution in hierarchical triple systems with eccentric outer binaries

We develop a technique for estimating the inner eccentricity in hierarchical triple systems, with the inner orbit being initially circular, while the outer one is eccentric. We consider coplanar systems with well-separated components and comparable masses. The derivation of short-period terms is based on an expansion of the rate of change of the Runge–Lenz vector. Then, the short-period terms are combined with secular terms, obtained by means of canonical perturbation theory. The validity of the theoretical equations is tested by numerical integrations of the full equations of motion.     

The 30 October 2020, MW = 7.0, Samos earthquake: aftershock relocation,slip model,Coulomb stress evolution and estimation of shaking

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - We study the major MW = 7.0, 30 October 2020, Samos earthquake and its aftershocks, by calculating improved locations using differential travel times and...     

Analysis of Faults' Effect on the Stability of Surface Lignite Mining Areas Using the Distinct Element Method

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Mining operations can drastically affect the stability of nearby areas. A representative case for this has been the Mavropigi mine, a part of an open-pit...     

Numerical Slope Stability Analysis of Deep Excavations Under Rainfall Infiltration

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Rainfall leads to the deterioration of slope stability conditions, while intense rainfall has been commonly associated with landslides on natural or...     

Precise and efficient evaluation of gravimetric quantities at arbitrarily scattered points in space

Gravimetric quantities are commonly represented in terms of high degree surface or solid spherical harmonics. After EGM2008, such expansions routinely extend to spherical harmonic degree 2190, which makes the computation of gravimetric quantities at a large number of arbitrarily scattered points in space using harmonic synthesis, a very computationally demanding process. We present here the development of an algorithm and its associated software for the efficient and precise evaluation of gravimetric quantities, represented in high degree solid spherical harmonics, at arbitrarily scattered points in the space exterior to the surface of the Earth. The new algorithm is based on representation of the quantities of interest in solid ellipsoidal harmonics and application of the tensor product trigonometric needlets. A FORTRAN implementation of this algorithm has been developed and extensively tested. The capabilities of the code are demonstrated using as examples the disturbing potential T, height anomaly \(\zeta \), gravity anomaly \(\Delta g\), gravity disturbance \(\delta g\), north–south deflection of the vertical \(\xi \), east–west deflection of the vertical \(\eta \), and the second radial derivative \(T_{rr}\) of the disturbing potential. After a pre-computational step that takes between 1 and 2 h per quantity, the current version of the software is capable of computing on a standard PC each of these quantities in the range from the surface of the Earth up to 544 km above that surface at speeds between 20,000 and 40,000 point evaluations per second, depending on the gravimetric quantity being evaluated, while the relative error does not exceed \(10^{-6}\) and the memory (RAM) use is 9.3 GB.     

Fast-track attribution assessments based on pre-computed estimates of changes in the odds of warm extremes

Climate Dynamics - Regional warming due to anthropogenic influence on the climate is expected to increase the frequency of very warm years and seasons. The growing research area of extreme event...     

Genetic seascape of the threatened Caribbean elkhorn coral,Acropora palmata,on the Puerto Rico Shelf

It has been proposed that the elkhorn coral Acropora palmata is genetically separated into two distinct provinces in the Caribbean, an eastern and a western population admixing in Western Puerto Rico and around the Mona Passage. In this study, the genetic structure of A. palmata sampled at 11 Puerto Rican localities and localities from Curaçao, the Bahamas and Guadeloupe were examined. Analyses using five microsatellite markers showed that 75% of sampled colonies had unique genotypes, the rest being clone mates. Genetic diversity among genets was high (H_E = 0.761) and consistent across localities (0.685–0.844). F_ST ranged from ?0.011 to 0.047, supporting low but significant genetic differentiation between localities within the previously reported eastern and western genetic provinces. Plots of genetic per geographic distances and significant Mantel tests supported isolation‐by‐distance (IBD) within Puerto Rico. Analysis with the software STRUCTURE favored a scenario with weak differentiation between two populations, assigning Eastern Puerto Rican locations (Fajardo and Culebra), Guadeloupe and Curaçao to the Caribbean eastern population and Western Puerto Rican locations (west of Vega Baja and Ponce), Mona and the Bahamas to the Caribbean western population. Vieques and San Juan area harbored admixed profiles. Standardized F_ST per 1000 km unit further supported higher differentiation between localities belonging to different STRUCTURE populations, with IBD being stronger within Puerto Rico than on larger regional scales. This stronger genetic transition seems to separate localities between putative eastern and western provinces in the Eastern Puerto Rican region, but not around the Mona Passage.