空间尺度转换与跨尺度信息链接:区域生态水文模拟研究空间尺度转换方法综述

空间尺度转换是近年来区域生态水文研究领域的一个基本研究问题。其需要主要是源于模型的输入数据与所能提供的数据空间尺度不一致以及模型所代表的地表过程空间尺度与所观测的地表过程空间尺度不吻合。综述了目前区域生态水文模拟研究中常用的空间尺度转换研究方法,包括向上尺度转换和向下尺度转换。详细论述了2种向下尺度转换方法: 统计学经验模型和动态模型。前者是通过将GCM大尺度数据与长期的历史观测数据比较从而建立统计学相关模型, 然后利用这个统计学经验模型进行向下的空间尺度转换. 然而动态模型并不直接对GCM数据进行向下尺度的转换,而是对与GCM进行动态耦合的区域气候模型(RCM) 的输出数据进行空间尺度转换. 通常后者所获得的数据精度要比前者高,但是一个主要缺点就是并不是全球所有的研究区域都有对应的RCM。还详细论述了2种向上尺度转换方法: 统计学经验模型和斑块模型。前者是建立一个能代表小尺度信息在大尺度上分布的密度分布概率函数, 然后利用这个函数在所需的大尺度上进行积分而求得大尺度所需的信息。而后者是根据相似性最大化原则将大尺度划分为若干个可操作的小尺度斑块,然后将计算的每个小尺度斑块的信息平均化得到大尺度所需的信息。通常在计算这种斑块化的小尺度信息的时候,对每个小尺度也会采用统计学经验模型来计算代表整个斑块小尺度的信息。建议用斑块模型与统计学经验模型相集合的方法来实现向上的空间尺度转换     

Rapid magmatic processes accompany arc–continent collision: the Western Bismarck arc, Papua New Guinea

New U–Th–Ra, major and trace element, and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data are presented for young lavas from the New Britain and Western Bismarck arcs in Papua New Guinea. New Britain is an oceanic arc, whereas the latter is the site of an arc–continent collision. Building on a recent study of the Manus Basin, contrasts between the two arcs are used to evaluate the processes and timescales of magma generation accompanying arc–continent collision and possible slab detachment. All three suites share many attributes characteristic of arc lavas that can be ascribed to the addition of a regionally uniform subduction component derived from the subducting altered oceanic crust and sediment followed by dynamic melting of the modified mantle. However, the Western Bismarck arc lavas diverge from the Pb isotope mixing array formed by the New Britain and the Manus Basin lavas toward elevated ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb. We interpret this to reflect a second and subsequent addition of sediment melt at crustal depth during collision. ²³⁸U and ²²⁶Ra excesses are preserved in all of the lavas and are greatest in the Western Bismarck arc. High-Mg andesites with high Sr/Y ratios in the westernmost arc are attributed to recent shallow mantle flux melting at the slab edge. Data for two historical rhyolites are also presented. Although these rhyolites formed in quite different tectonic settings and display different geochemical and isotopic compositions, both formed from mafic parents within millennia.     

南京直立人的U/Th和U/Pa年代

中国直立人化石的准确定年对于研究人类演化有着极为重要的意义。1993～1994年在南京汤山葫芦洞发现的两个直立人头盖骨化石和一枚牙化石被称为“南京直立人”。其中1号头盖骨化石之上的方解石钙板的U/Th年龄为53.3_(-1.2)~(+1.5)万年;但考虑到定年的准确性,则为53.3_(-3.0)~(+3.5)万年。其~(231)Pa/~(235)U活度比值为0.998±0.006。这表明“南京直立人”的年代应该大于50万年。与”南京直立人”伴生的动物牙化石U/Th年代为18.5～29.0万年;U/Pa年代为13.7～17.2万年。此外,对于同一颗牙化石,牙釉的年龄小于牙本质的年龄。同一样品的U/Pa年龄也显著小于其U/Th年龄。因此,牙化石的U摄取过程并不符合U早期摄取模式。多数牙化石分析点在~(234)U/~(238)U-~(230)Th/~(238)U图上落在位于U早期摄取和线性摄取模式曲线之间,指示牙化石的U摄取过程很可能介于上述两种模式之间。如果这一假设成立,那么牙化石的U/Th和U/Pa线性摄取模式年龄则为其年代的上限。因为不受U摄取过程~(234)U/~(238)U变化的影响,U/Pa线性摄取模式年龄比U/Th较为可靠。最小的U/Pa线性摄取模式年龄为1Ma,这是”南京直立人”上限年龄的估计。从定年结果看,”南京直立人”可能生活在海洋同位素(MIS)16阶段,但这不是最终结论。     

Disseminated ‘jigsaw piece’ dolomite in Upper Jurassic shelf sandstones,Central North Sea: an example of cement growth during bioturbation?

Unusual textural and chemical characteristics of disseminated dolomite in Upper Jurassic shelf sediments of the North Sea have provided the basis for a proposed new interpretation of early diagenetic dolomite authigenesis in highly bioturbated marine sandstones. The dolomite is present throughout the Franklin Sandstone Formation of the Franklin and Elgin Fields as discrete, non‐ferroan, generally unzoned, subhedral to highly anhedral ‘jigsaw piece’ crystals. These are of a similar size to the detrital silicate grains and typically account for ≈5% of the rock volume. The dolomite crystals are never seen to form polycrystalline aggregates or concretions, or ever to envelop the adjacent silicate grains. They are uniformly dispersed throughout the sandstones, irrespective of detrital grain size or clay content. Dolomite authigenesis predated all the other significant diagenetic events visible in thin section. The dolomite is overgrown by late diagenetic ankerite, and bulk samples display stable isotope compositions that lie on a mixing trend between these components. Extrapolation of this trend suggests that the dolomite has near‐marine δ¹⁸O values and low, positive δ¹³C values. The unusual textural and chemical characteristics of this dolomite can all be reconciled if it formed in the near‐surface zone of active bioturbation. Sea water provided a plentiful reservoir of Mg and a pore fluid of regionally consistent δ¹⁸O. Labile bioclastic debris (e.g. aragonite, Mg‐calcite) supplied isotopically positive carbon to the pore fluids during shallow‐burial dissolution. Such dissolution took place in response to the ambient ‘calcite sea’ conditions, but may have been catalysed by organic matter oxidation reactions. Bioturbation not only ensured that the dissolving carbonate was dispersed throughout the sandstones, but also prohibited coalescence of the dolomite crystals and consequent cementation of the grain framework. Continued exchange of Mg²⁺ and Ca²⁺ with the sea‐water reservoir maintained a sufficient Mg/Ca ratio for dolomite (rather than calcite) to form. Irregular crystal shapes resulted from dissolution, of both the dolomite and the enclosed fine calcitic shell debris, before ankerite precipitation during deep‐burial diagenesis.     

石笋氧同位素和微量元素记录的陕南地区4200～2000a B.P.高分辨率季风降雨变化

基于陕南祥龙洞石笋XL2的19个230Th年龄、218个氧同位素分析以及896个Sr/Ca分析数据,高分辨率重建了4200～1972a B.P.期间陕南地区季风降雨变化.重建结果显示陕南地区这一时期季风降雨有显著的127～105a和57a周期,可能分别受控于太阳活动、PDO和/或AMO的变化.重建时段有3次百年尺度的干旱事件,分别发生于2200～2100a B.P.,2900～2700a B.P.和3600～3400a B.P.,其中2900～2700a B.P.干旱事件对应于北大西洋地区2.8ka冷事件.对比研究显示,尽管祥龙洞石笋和董哥洞石笋δ18O记录整体一致,但除了2900～ 2700aB.P.干旱事件之外,其他两次干旱事件在董哥洞石笋记录中并不明显.而尽管总体上祥龙洞和和尚洞石笋δ18O记录的差异要大,但XL2的3次干旱事件在和尚洞记录都有明显体现.有精确年代控制的祥龙洞、董哥洞及和尚洞石笋氧同位素记录的差异,揭示晚全新世我国季风降雨在十一百年尺度存在区域差异.     

Radiative Processes in the Stable Boundary Layer: Part I. Radiative Aspects

The structure of the radiatively dominated stable boundary layer is analysed using idealized calculations at high vertical and spectral resolution. The temperature profile of a nocturnal radiative boundary layer, developing after the evening transition, is found to be well described in terms of radiative cooling to the surface, although radiative exchanges within the atmosphere become increasingly important with time. The treatment of non-black surfaces is discussed in some detail and it is shown that the effect of reducing the surface emissivity is to decrease rather than to increase the radiative cooling rate in the surface layer. It is also argued that an accurate assessment of the impact of non-black surfaces requires careful attention to the spectral and directional characteristics of the surface emissivity. A polar nocturnal boundary layer, developing above snow-covered ground, is simulated and found to reach a slowly evolving state characterized by a strong radiative divergence near the surface that is comparable to observed values. Radiative boundary layers are characterized by large temperature gradients near the surface. An erratum to this article can be found at     

The Vulnerability of the Australian Beef Industry to Impacts of the Cattle Tick (Boophilus microplus) under Climate Change

An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible.     

Quaternary glaciation of the Bale Mountains,Ethiopia

Central Ethiopia comprises a high plateau at 2000–3000 m, formed from Tertiary lava flows and bisected by the Eastern African Rift. Ten volcanic mountains rise to altitudes of just over 4000 m, but on only three has Quaternary glaciation been substantiated by published field observations. On the Bale Mountains (4400 m), a previous report based on limited evidence proposed an ice‐cap extending to 600 km². Based on aerial photographs and ground surveys, this paper reports evidence of a more complex situation. A wide spread of large erratic boulders on the plateau records a central ice cap of 30 km², though ice probably extended for a further 40 km². Further north two groups of deeply incised and clearly glaciated valleys contain moraines and roches moutonnées (60 km²). On interfluves between them and on the open north slopes are moraines from an earlier stage of the same glaciation or from a distinct older event. Altogether about 180 km² may have been glaciated. Cores dated by ¹⁴C from inside and outside the glaciated area suggest that at least the northern valley glaciers may date from the Last Glacial Maximum. Estimated equilibrium line altitudes for these glaciers and the ice‐cap are 3750–4230 m. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.