<Emphasis>H</Emphasis>ydrological variability of the <Emphasis>S</Emphasis>oummam watershed <Emphasis>(N</Emphasis>ortheastern <Emphasis>A</Emphasis>lgeria<Emphasis>)</Emphasis> and the possible links to climate fluctuations

The long-term variability of rainfall in the Soummam watershed (NE Algeria) has been analysed over the past 108 years using continuous wavelet method in order to identify the interannual modes controlling the rainfall variability. Statistical analyses of rainfall timeseries have shown its distribution following five periods of time, limited by a series of discontinuities around 1935, 1950, 1970 and 1990. The continuous wavelet transform have demonstrated different low frequency modes: 2–4, 4–8, 8–16 and 16–32 years.The annual band is expanded during the full study period with some pics around 1905, 1920–1935 and 1960; it shows a negative long-term trend, in particular since the period 1970–1990 when a major change has been identified. Then, the relationships between climate patterns of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the hydrological variability in the frequency domain have been investigated; they have shown a mean explained variance of 40 and 24 %, respectively. Such variances are less obvious for the annual mode and increase for the interannual frequencies. The coherence suffer from high perturbations since the period 1970–1990 when the NAO (SOI) shifts from negative (positive) phases to positive (negative) ones. Such anomalies are responsible for significant changes of rainfall variability, emphasising the global warming effects.     

Analysis of rock drainage and cooling experiments for underground cryogenic LNG storage

Hydrogeological monitoring was conducted around a pilot cavern for underground cryogenic LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) storage. The monitoring was mainly focused on the operation of a drainage and recharge system. After the operation of the drainage system commenced, the drainage rate decreased rapidly in the initial stages and then decreased gradually. Hydrogeological monitoring revealed that the rock drainage system operated effectively. During drainage, the water table was maintained below the cavern roof. The recharge for ice-ring formation was performed in two phases. The first phase involved the cessation of pumping in downward-drainage holes and the second involved the closure of upward boreholes. Since the water table was maintained below the cavern roof, artificial recharge was planned at first. However, it was not implemented due to heavy rainfall in the recharge stage. On the basis of hydrogeological monitoring and hydraulic tests, it was found that the fractures above the roof and on the right wall of the pilot cavern mainly affected seepage into the cavern and thermal variation due to the storage of liquid nitrogen. Thermal variation was examined by the thermometers installed around the pilot cavern. The cooling and thawing processes reveal the characteristics of thermal distribution in the rock and the 0 °C isotherm. The cooling phase lasted for six months, and the 0 °C isotherm progressed in time after the injection of liquid nitrogen into the cavern. The isotherm propagated up to about 4 m from the floor and the sidewall of the cavern and about 3 m from the cavern roof. The cooling rate of the rock mass above the cavern roof was lower than that of the other cavern sides due to the gaseous space in the upper part of the containment. The fractures were analyzed and considered for thermal modeling. A two-dimensional finite element analysis was performed to compare the field monitoring at the pilot cavern. The numerical modeling shows the distance between the ice ring and heat transfer pattern of the fractures around the pilot cavern. The propagation of the measured and calculated 0 °C isotherm reveals that the water-conveying joint on the right wall might affect thermal propagation through a thermal pipe.     

Escaping the climate policy uncertainty trap: options contracts for REDD+

Climate policy uncertainty significantly hinders investments in low-carbon technologies, and the global community is behind schedule to curb carbon emissions. Strong actions will be necessary to limit the increase in global temperatures, and continued delays create risks of escalating climate change damages and future policy costs. These risks are system-wide, long-term and large-scale and thus hard to diversify across firms. Because of its unique scale, cost structure and near-term availability, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has significant potential to help manage climate policy risks and facilitate the transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Call’ options contracts in the form of the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits from jurisdictional REDD+ programmes at a predetermined price per ton of CO₂ could help unlock this potential despite the current lack of carbon markets that accept REDD+ for compliance. This approach could provide a globally important cost-containment mechanism and insurance for firms against higher future carbon prices, while channelling finance to avoid deforestation until policy uncertainties decline and carbon markets scale up.

Key policy insights

• Climate policy uncertainty discourages abatement investments, exposing firms to an escalating systemic risk of future rapid increases in emission control expenditures.

• This situation poses a risk of an abatement ‘short squeeze,’ paralleling the case in financial markets when prices jump sharply as investors rush to square accounts on an investment they have sold ‘short’, one they have bet against and promised to repay later in anticipation of falling prices.

• There is likely to be a willingness to pay for mechanisms that hedge the risks of abruptly rising carbon prices, in particular for ‘call’ options, the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits at a predetermined price, due to the significantly lower upfront capital expenditure compared to other hedging alternatives.

• Establishing rules as soon as possible for compliance market acceptance of high-quality emissions reductions credits from REDD+ would facilitate REDD+ transactions, including via options-based contracts, which could help fill the gap of uncertain climate policies in the short and medium term.

     

Flow in upper-mantle rocks: Some geophysical and geodynamic consequences

Flow mechanisms effective in the upper mantle and some of the parameters of the creep equation are determined from the study of peridotites from basalt and kimberlite xenoliths and alpine-type massifs. Creep controlled by dislocation climb, as inferred by Weertman, is the dominant mechanism. Evidence for superplastic flow is found in the deepest kimberlite xenoliths. Flow in the alpine-type massifs is ascribed either to intrusion in the crust when continental plates collide (lherzolite massifs) or to sea-floor spreading (harzburgite massifs included in ophiolites). The consideration of textures, crystal substructures and preferred orientations connected with P,T equilibrium conditions derived from pyroxenes, helps in deciphering the large-scale structure and flow of peridotites in the crust and in the mantle down to 200 km. For the first 150 km, the representative structures are those of the basalt xenoliths and the kimberlite xenoliths with a coarsegrained texture. They have many features in common and probably represent a static lithosphere with, in basalt xenoliths, possible evidence for the transition to the shear flowing asthenosphere. The porphyroclastic and mosaic-textured xenoliths, in kimberlites equilibrated at depth between 150 and 200 km and a few more superficial basalt xenoliths, reflect a much larger strain rate and applied stress and might be connected to vertical instabilities also responsible for magma genesis.     

Coupling mechanisms in double sandbar systems. Part 2: impact on alongshore variability of inner‐bar rip channels

Double sandbar systems are common morphological features along sandy, wave‐dominated, micro‐ to meso‐tidal coastlines. In the companion paper, we demonstrated how various alongshore inner‐bar rip‐channel patterns can develop through morphological coupling to an alongshore‐variable outer bar. The simulated coupling patterns are, however, scarcely observed in the field. Instead, inner‐bar rip channels more often possess remarkably smaller and more variable alongshore length scales, suggesting that coupling mechanisms do not play a substantial role in the overall double‐sandbar dynamics. Here we use a numerical model to show that the relative importance of self‐organization and morphological coupling changes in favour of the latter with an increase in waterdepth variability along the outer‐bar crest. Furthermore, we find that the typical alongshore variability in inner‐bar rip‐channel scale is indicative of a mixture of self‐organization and morphological coupling rather than self‐organization alone. Morphological coupling may thus be more important to understanding and predicting the evolution of inner‐bar rip channels than previously envisaged. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.     

Process length variation of the cyst of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum in the North Pacific and Baltic‐Skagerrak region: calibration as an annual density proxy and first evidence of pseudo‐cryptic speciation

Process length variation of cysts of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum (Claparède et Lachmann) Bütschli in surface sediments from the North Pacific was investigated. The average process length showed a significant inverse relation to annual seawater density: σ_{t annual} = ?0.8674 × average process length + 1029.3 (R² = 0.84), with a standard error of 0.78 kg m^?3. A sediment trap study from Effingham Inlet in British Columbia revealed the same relationship between average process length and local seawater density variations. In the Baltic–Skagerrak region, the average process length variation was related significantly to annual seawater density: σ_{t annual} = 3.5457 × average process length ? 993.28 (R² = 0.86), with a standard error of 3.09 kg m^?3. These calibrations cannot be reconciled, which accentuates the regional character of the calibrations. This can be related to variations in molecular data (small subunit, long subunit and internal transcribed spacer sequences), which show the presence of several genotypes and the occurrence of pseudo‐cryptic speciation within this species. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wave train model for knickpoint migration

Rivers respond to a drop in their base level by incising the topography. The upstream propagation of an incision, as usually depicted by a knickpoint migration, is thought to depend on several parameters such as the drainage area, lithology, and the amplitude of the base level drop. We first investigate the case of the Messinian Salinity Crisis that was characterized by the extreme base level fall (1500 m) of the Mediterranean Sea at the end of the Miocene. The response of drainage areas of three orders of magnitude (10³ to 10⁶ km²) highlights the dominant role of the drainage area (with a square root relationship) in controlling the knickpoint migration after a base level fall. A compilation of mean rates of knickpoint propagation for time durations ranging from 10² to 10⁷ years displays a similar relationship indicating that successive wave trains of knickpoint can migrate in a river: first, wave trains linked to the release of the alluvial cover and then, wave trains related to the bedrock incision, which correspond to the real time response of rivers. Wave trains with very low retreat rates (long lived knickpoints > 1 My) rather correspond to the response time of regional landscape.     

The Influence of the Solar Coronal Radiation on Coronal Plasma Structures,I: Determination of the Incident Coronal Radiation

Coronal structures receive radiation not only from the solar disc, but also from the corona. This height-dependent incident radiation plays a crucial role in the excitation and the ionisation of the illuminated plasma. The aim of this article is to present a method for computing the detailed incident radiation coming from the solar corona, which is perceived at a point located at an arbitrary height. The coronal radiation is calculated by integrating the radiation received at a point in the corona over all of the corona visible from this point. The emission from the corona at all wavelengths of interest is computed using atomic data provided by CHIANTI. We obtain the spectrum illuminating points located at varying heights in the corona at wavelengths between 100 and 912 Å when photons can ionise H or He atoms and ions in their ground states. As expected, individual spectral lines will contribute most at the height within the corona where the local temperature is closest to their formation temperature. As there are many spectral lines produced by many ions, the coronal intensity cannot be assumed to vary in the same way at all wavelengths and so must be calculated for each separate height that is to be considered. This code can be used to compute the spectrum from the corona illuminating a point at any given height above the solar surface. This brings a necessary improvement to models where an accurate determination of the excitation and ionisation states of coronal plasma structures is crucial.