“Natural cycles” in lay understandings of climate change

This article analyses lay understandings of climate change elicited through a longitudinal population-based survey of climate change, place and community among 1162 residents in the Hunter Valley, Southeast Australia. We explore how older residents in contrasting rural and coastal geographic areas perceive climate change information in terms of culturally relevant meanings and values, lived experiences and emotional responses to seasonal cycles, temperature fluctuations and altered landscapes. Thematic analysis of comments given by 467 interviewees to an open-ended question identified a significant subset for whom the concepts of “nature” and “science” express competing views about changing climatic conditions. For them, the idea of “natural cycles” is a significant cultural construct that links nature and humans through time in a way that structures stable and resilient understandings of environmental change, drawing on established cosmological frameworks for contemplating the future in relation to the past. In contrast to other studies that postulate scepticism and denial as individuals’ fear management strategies in the face of climate change threat, we found that the natural cycles view is founded on a reassuring deeper conviction about how nature works, and is linked to other pro-environmental values not commonly found in sceptical groups. It is a paradox of natural cycles thinking that it rejects the anthropocentrism that is at the heart of science-based environmentalism. By contrast, it places humans as deeply integrated with nature, rather than operating outside it and attempting with uncertain science to control something that is ultimately uncontrollable.     

Climatic and oceanographic changes in the Northeast Atlantic reflected by magnetic properties of sediments deposited on the Portuguese Margin during the last 340 ka

Rock magnetic parameters measured along two giant piston cores MD95-2040 (40°34′N, 9°51′W) and MD95-2042 (37°47′N, 10°09′W) collected off the Portuguese Margin, related to other proxy-climatic data, have been used to reconstruct magnetic mineralogical changes of, in relation to environmental and climatic conditions over the North Atlantic, Western Europe and Northwest Africa during the last three climatic cycles (since isotope stage 10). Thin discrete layers containing coarse grains of titano-magnetite are associated with events of iceberg discharge during Heinrich events 1-6 [Heinrich, Quat. Res. 29 (1988) 142] that have equivalent events in isotope stages 5-8. Concentrations of fine-grained (Ti-) magnetite and hematite/goethite, varying in phase opposition, are directly linked with alternations of cold and warm climatic periods. Spectral analyses of the rock magnetic signals reveal Milankovitch periods at 100 and 41 ka, confirming the relationship with long-term climatic changes at high latitudes. The nature (Ti-magnetite) and size range of the finest ferrimagnetic fraction as well as its variation, suggest a control by deep currents carrying a colloidal/clayey fraction from remote sources (Iceland, Faeroes, mid-Atlantic Ridge). Variation of hematite/goethite contents is linked with transport by rivers and winds from the neighbouring continent. A tight correlation with the D-O cycles in Greenland ice records confirms that North Atlantic oceanic regimes and continental wind regimes were strongly influenced by millennial scale climatic changes throughout the last 350 ka.     

Quantification of the effect of forest harvesting versus climate on streamflow cycles and trends in an evergreen broadleaf catchment

ABSTRACT

A new method known as Unobserved Components–Dynamic Harmonic Regression (UC-DHR) was applied to a 39-year record of rainfall and streamflow for three sub-catchments of the Sarukawa Experimental Watershed in southwestern Japan. Some 25% of the timber was harvested from one of the sub-catchments in May–July 1982 and the objective was to quantify the magnitude of this effect relative to the effects of climate cycles (e.g. Southern Oscillation Index). The observed effects of inter-annual climate cycles (i.e. 0.89–1.36 mm/d) were seen to be comparable (i.e. 0.70–1.17 mm/d) to the effects of harvesting 25% of the standing timber. This result underlines the importance of always quantifying the effect of climate on streamflow response when harvesting impacts are studied.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor T. Okruszko     

Evaluating ecosystem-based management options: Effects of trawling in Torres Strait,Australia

A suite of management options for a prawn trawl fishery in Torres Strait, Australia was assessed for impacts on the benthic fauna using a dynamic management strategy evaluation approach. The specification of the management options was gained through consultation with stakeholders. Data for the model was drawn from several sources: the fleet data from fishery logbooks and satellite vessel monitoring systems, benthic depletion rates from trawl-down experiments, benthic recovery rates from post-experiment recovery monitoring studies, and benthic distribution from large-scale benthic surveys. Although there were large uncertainties in the resulting indicators, robust measures relevant to management were obtained by taking ratios relative to the status quo. The management control with the biggest effect was total effort; reducing trawl effort always led to increases in benthic faunal density of up to 10%. Spatial closures had a smaller benefit of up to 2%. The effect of closing a set of buffer zones around reefs to trawling was indistinguishable from the status quo option. Closing a larger area, however, was largely beneficial especially for sea cucumbers. When the spatial distributions of fauna prior to fishing were accounted for, fauna with distributions positively correlated with effort improved relative to those negatively correlated. The reduction in prawn catch under effort reduction scenarios could be ameliorated by introducing temporal closures over the full-moon period.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and He degassing at El Chichón volcano,Chiapas, Mexico: gas flux,origin and relationship with local and regional tectonics

During 2007–2008, three CO₂ flux surveys were performed on El Chichón volcanic lake, Chiapas, Mexico, with an additional survey in April 2008 covering the entire crater floor (including the lake). The mean CO₂ flux calculated by sequential Gaussian simulation from the lake was 1,190 (March 2007), 730 (December 2007) and 1,134 g m⁻² day⁻¹ (April 2008) with total emission rates of 164 ± 9.5 (March 2007), 59 ± 2.5 (December 2007) and 109 ± 6.6 t day⁻¹ (April 2008). The mean CO₂ flux estimated from the entire crater floor area was 1,102 g m⁻² day⁻¹ for April 2008 with a total emission rate of 144 ± 5.9 t day⁻¹. Significant change in CO₂ flux was not detected during the period of survey, and the mapping of the CO₂ flux highlighted lineaments reflecting the main local and regional tectonic patterns. The ³He/⁴He ratio (as high as 8.1 R _A) for gases in the El Chichón crater is generally higher than those observed at the neighbouring Transmexican Volcanic Belt and the Central American Volcanic Arc. The CO₂/³He ratios for the high ³He/⁴He gases tend to have the MORB-like values (1.41 × 10⁹), and the CO₂/³He ratios for the lower ³He/⁴He gases fall within the range for the arc-type gases. The high ³He/⁴He ratios, the MORB-like CO₂/³He ratios for the high ³He/⁴He gases and high proportion of MORB-CO₂ (M = 25 ±15%) at El Chichón indicate a greater depth for the generation of magma when compared to typical arc volcanoes.     

Climate change or nuclear power—No thanks! A quantitative study of public perceptions and risk framing in Britain

The UK is witnessing a new line in political debate around new nuclear energy generation as one potential feature of future energy policy, specifically for contributing to climate change mitigation alongside energy security. Little is known about how ordinary citizens might be responding to this reframing. This paper reports the results from a major British survey (n=1491) undertaken in the autumn of 2005. The consistent message is that while higher proportions of the British public are prepared to accept nuclear power if they believe it contributes to climate change mitigation, this is a highly conditional view, with very few actively preferring this over renewable sources given the choice. People see both climate change and nuclear power as problematic in terms of risks and express only a ‘reluctant acceptance’ of nuclear power as a ‘solution’ to climate change. The combined data from this survey can also be interpreted as an indication of the complexity surrounding beliefs about energy futures and the difficulty of undertaking simplistic risk–risk tradeoffs within any single framing of the issues; such as nuclear energy versus climate change. The results also indicate that it would be unwise, in the UK as elsewhere, to simplistically assume that there exists any single or stable public ‘opinion’ on such complex matters. We conclude with a discussion of the role and implications of the survey evidence for the policy process.     

Improving sub-salt imaging using 3D basin model derived velocities

The quality of depth imaging is directly related to the accuracy of the underlying velocity model. In most sub-salt settings, lack of angular illumination severely degrades the resolution and accuracy of velocity information derived from the seismic data itself. A standard approach for building a starting velocity model uses more reliable velocity information outboard of salt which is subsequently extrapolated to populate the sub-salt regions. The shortcoming of this method lies in the assumption that the effective stress observed outboard of salt can be extrapolated beneath salt solely as a function of depth below mudline.     

Using fine‐scale catch predictions to examine spatial variation in growth and catchability of Panulirus cygnus along the west coast of Australia

Puerulus settlement has been monitored throughout the western rock lobster Panulirus cygnus fishery for nearly 40 years. These data, in combination with indices of effort and water temperature, were used to produce recruitment‐catch relationships for each 1° transect of latitude in the coastal part of this fishery from Kalbarri to Cape Leeuwin, as well as at the offshore Abrolhos Islands (total of eight transects). The fine spatial scales of these models provided estimates of certain life history traits that are known to affect lobster catches between adjacent fishing ports. This catch modelling showed that the proportions of 3‐ and 4‐year‐old post‐settlement lobsters contributing to the catches varied markedly from the southern to northern transects, suggesting that juvenile lobsters grow substantially faster in the warmer northern and offshore waters of this fishery. These proportions provide accurate estimates of juvenile growth rates, which are vital in the construction of location‐specific growth algorithms required by the age‐structured models used in the management of this fishery. Model estimates of density‐dependent mortality were greater in the more densely populated centre of the fishery and markedly lower at the northern and southern limits of this species distribution. Annual increases in fishing efficiency were also found to be lowest at the northern and southern extremes of the fishery and greatest in the centre of the fishery, where technology advances and increased fleet mobility have enabled the fleet to increase efficiency by 1–3% each year. Catchability (q) was found to be most influenced by water temperatures in the cooler southern transects, whereas at the Abrolhos Islands, changes in water temperature produced almost no discernable change in q. The catch modelling was also used to quantify the impact of management changes introduced in the 1993/94 fishing season. Increased protection of female lobsters and an 18% pot reduction resulted in a 3–4% permanent reduction in the catch rates of lobsters throughout most of the coastal fishery, whereas at the offshore Abrolhos Islands, catch rates increased by c. 20%, presumably owing to a reduction in the level of pot saturation.     

CPOD successful in trial for detecting Māui dolphin outside harbours

Critically endangered Māui dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori maui) are found exclusively off the west coast of New Zealand’s North Island. One important data gap troubling efforts to reduce the current unsustainable level of bycatch is the limited information on the offshore and alongshore limits of their range. Passive acoustic monitoring studies could address this data gap, but Māui dolphin habitat is dominated by a sandy substrate that can shift greatly in the strong local currents. In February 2016, a short pilot CPOD deployment was thus attempted as a first step to see if the equipment could be deployed and recovered in the area and if the data collected would be viable, with a second unit deployed inside a harbour for comparison with earlier TPOD data. The pilot was largely successful, and roughly 11% of all minutes in the core habitat location contained detections of clicks attributed to Māui dolphin. A visual inspection of the data suggests some trends with diel and tidal patterns. Further work of this type is thus recommended.