Ancient harbors and Holocene morphogenesis of the Ras Ibn Hani peninsula (Syria)

Ras Ibn Hani peninsula, a wave-dominated tombolo (800 × 1000 m) on the Syrian coast, provides evidence for significant Holocene changes that can be linked to geological inheritance, rising post-glacial sea level, sediment supply and human impacts. Initial development of Ras Ibn Hani's coastal system began ~ 8000 years ago when shallow marine environments formed in a context of rising post-glacial sea level. Following relative sea-level stabilization ~ 6000 cal yr BP, beach facies trace the gradual formation of a wave-dominated sandbank fronted by a ~ 2300 × ~ 500 m palaeo-island whose environmental potentiality was attractive to Bronze Age societies. A particularly rapid phase of tombolo accretion is observed after ~ 3500 cal yr BP characterised by a two- to fourfold increase in sedimentation rates. This is consistent with (i) a pulse in sediment supply probably driven by Bronze Age/Iron Age soil erosion in local catchments, and (ii) positive feedback mechanisms linked to regionally attested neotectonics. Archaeological remains and radiocarbon datings confirm that the subaerial tombolo was probably in place by the Late Bronze Age. These data fit tightly with other eastern Mediterranean tombolo systems suggesting that there is a great deal of predictability to their geology and stratigraphy at the regional scale.     

Using fine‐scale catch predictions to examine spatial variation in growth and catchability of Panulirus cygnus along the west coast of Australia

Puerulus settlement has been monitored throughout the western rock lobster Panulirus cygnus fishery for nearly 40 years. These data, in combination with indices of effort and water temperature, were used to produce recruitment‐catch relationships for each 1° transect of latitude in the coastal part of this fishery from Kalbarri to Cape Leeuwin, as well as at the offshore Abrolhos Islands (total of eight transects). The fine spatial scales of these models provided estimates of certain life history traits that are known to affect lobster catches between adjacent fishing ports. This catch modelling showed that the proportions of 3‐ and 4‐year‐old post‐settlement lobsters contributing to the catches varied markedly from the southern to northern transects, suggesting that juvenile lobsters grow substantially faster in the warmer northern and offshore waters of this fishery. These proportions provide accurate estimates of juvenile growth rates, which are vital in the construction of location‐specific growth algorithms required by the age‐structured models used in the management of this fishery. Model estimates of density‐dependent mortality were greater in the more densely populated centre of the fishery and markedly lower at the northern and southern limits of this species distribution. Annual increases in fishing efficiency were also found to be lowest at the northern and southern extremes of the fishery and greatest in the centre of the fishery, where technology advances and increased fleet mobility have enabled the fleet to increase efficiency by 1–3% each year. Catchability (q) was found to be most influenced by water temperatures in the cooler southern transects, whereas at the Abrolhos Islands, changes in water temperature produced almost no discernable change in q. The catch modelling was also used to quantify the impact of management changes introduced in the 1993/94 fishing season. Increased protection of female lobsters and an 18% pot reduction resulted in a 3–4% permanent reduction in the catch rates of lobsters throughout most of the coastal fishery, whereas at the offshore Abrolhos Islands, catch rates increased by c. 20%, presumably owing to a reduction in the level of pot saturation.     

Impact of lunar cycle and swell on the daily catch rate of western rock lobster (Panulirus cygnus) using time series modelling

The western rock lobster fishery is one of the most valuable single‐species fisheries in Australia, valued at AU$300 million per year. The impact of environmental factors such as lunar cycle and swell on the daily catch rate of the western rock lobster (Panulirus cynus) is of particular interest in the stock assessment and management of the fishery. The variation in daily catch rates was examined for two periods (migrating period November‐January, non‐migrating period February‐June), at different depths in three management zones for three categories of lobster (undersize, legal size, and setose). Regression and transfer function models for relationships between catch rates and environmental data were considered and compared. The lunar cycle has a significant impact on the daily catch rates with c. 30% lower catch rate during the full moon and c. 20% higher catches near the new moon. This impact occurs mainly during the non‐migrating period both in deep water (40–100 m) and shallow water (<40 m). The swell on the day before fishing was also shown to be significantly related to the catch rate with an increase of c. 10–15% for an increase in swell from light to moderate or moderate to high. These environmental factors can be used to standardise catch rates to provide an improved abundance index for stock assessment. Also, management closures are being considered for 3–5 days over the low catch rate, full moon period to reduce fishing costs and lower fishing effort.     

Using tolerance intervals to assess recovery of mussel beds impacted by the Exxon Valdez oil spill

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) have been measured in mussel tissues in early spring and summer since 1993 throughout Prince William Sound (PWS) and the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Season-specific thresholds were established at reference sites to identify ‘above background’ total PAH levels. Thresholds were estimated using one-sided 99% tolerance limits. Thresholds were similar across reference sites but differed by an order of magnitude across seasons. Trends in total PAH since 1998 were assessed for sites impacted by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill or the Alyeska Marine Terminal. Summer samples exhibited no trends; early spring samples declined. In early spring, all sites were judged ‘recovered’ by 2004; in summer, one site in western Prince William Sound and two in the western GOA exceeded thresholds by 11 ng/g dry weight or less. Robust estimation methods prevented bias from observations affected by unknown releases or laboratory errors.     

Quantification of the effect of forest harvesting versus climate on streamflow cycles and trends in an evergreen broadleaf catchment

ABSTRACT

A new method known as Unobserved Components–Dynamic Harmonic Regression (UC-DHR) was applied to a 39-year record of rainfall and streamflow for three sub-catchments of the Sarukawa Experimental Watershed in southwestern Japan. Some 25% of the timber was harvested from one of the sub-catchments in May–July 1982 and the objective was to quantify the magnitude of this effect relative to the effects of climate cycles (e.g. Southern Oscillation Index). The observed effects of inter-annual climate cycles (i.e. 0.89–1.36 mm/d) were seen to be comparable (i.e. 0.70–1.17 mm/d) to the effects of harvesting 25% of the standing timber. This result underlines the importance of always quantifying the effect of climate on streamflow response when harvesting impacts are studied.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor T. Okruszko     

Tsunami impact assessment: development of vulnerability matrix for critical infrastructure and application to Christchurch,New Zealand

Natural Hazards - Tsunamis can have severe impacts on society. In addition to casualties and damage to buildings, they can also damage and disrupt critical infrastructure. To support effective risk...     

Towards spatially distributed quantitative assessment of tsunami inundation models

This paper presents a framework and data for spatially distributed assessment of tsunami inundation models. Our associated validation test is based upon the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which affords a uniquely large amount of observational data for events of this kind. Specifically, we use eyewitness accounts to assess onshore flow depths and speeds as well as a detailed inundation survey of Patong City, Thailand to compare modelled and observed inundation. Model predictions matched well the detailed inundation survey as well as altimetry data from the JASON satellite, eyewitness accounts of wave front arrival times and onshore flow speeds. Important buildings and other structures were incorporated into the underlying elevation model and are shown to have a large influence on inundation extent.     

Deformation and seismic effects in the ice cover of Lake Baikal

The mechanics of the ice cover of Lake Baikal has been studied through monitoring of its deformation and seismic effects and full-sizeuniaxial compression and shear tests in 2005–2007. We measured the shear strength of ice specimens and large in situ blocks (σ = 0.2?1.9 MPa) and investigated it as a function of air temperature and ice structure. Deformation was analyzed in terms of various natural controls, such as air temperature and pressure, wind, sub-ice currents, and local earthquakes. Precise strain measurements along ice cracks were used to explore the strain behavior of ice, including the cases of dynamic failure (ice shocks). Measurements by seismic station Baikal-12 were used to monitor diurnal background micro seismicity variations and to record an ice quake with its magnitude (M = 0.3–0.8; E = 104–105 J) comparable to a medium-size rock burst or a small earthquake. Ice quakes were studied in terms of their nucleation, dynamics, and after effects, as well as the strain and seismic responses of the ice, using sub-ice explosions in the latter case. The natural conditions of deformation in the elastoviscoplastic Baikal ice are similar to lithospheric processes and thus can be employed in tectonophysical modeling with scientific and practical implications for hazard mitigation.     

Spectroscopic surveys of cosmic evolution

ALMA will be the premier instrument for the study of galaxy evolution in the early universe—enabling studies of the gas content, dynamics and dynamical masses, and star formation with unparalleled resolution and sensitivity. Galaxy evolution and AGN growth in the early universe are believed to be strongly driven by merging and dynamical interactions. Thus, a full exploration of the environmental influence is absolutely essential. The Cosmic Evolution Survey (COSMOS) is specifically designed to probe the correlated coevolution of galaxies, star formation, active galactic nuclei (AGN) and dark matter (DM) large-scale structure (LSS) over the redshift range z>0.5 to 3. In this contribution I review the characteristics of the COSMOS survey and very exciting initial results on mapping large scale structure in galaxies and dark matter. The survey includes multi-wavelength imaging and spectroscopy from X-ray to radio wavelengths covering a 2 square degree equatorial field. Given the very high sensitivity and resolution of these datasets, COSMOS will provide unprecedented samples of objects at z>3 for followup studies wit ALMA.