两种模式在风电场风速预测应用中的对比

利用2011年12月至2012年11月贺兰山风电场测风塔实测资料和同期WRF、BJ-RUC模式预测结果,对2种模式在风速预测中的应用进行对比分析。结果发现,月尺度上,2种模式预测的风速月均值普遍较实测值高,且WRF较BJ-RUC更接近实测值;WRF预测的月平均风速标准差普遍较实测低,而BJ-RUC普遍比实测大;春季WRF预测效果整体上较BJ-RUC好,其它季节WRF预测的月平均风速均方根误差较BJ-RUC的小,但与实测风速的相关性较BJ-RUC与实测风速相关性差。日尺度上,凌晨至中午前后和傍晚至前半夜2个时段,2种模式预测风速普遍比实测值大,而中午至傍晚时分正相反,预测值普遍较实测小。2种模式对〉12 m·s^-1风速预测的均方根误差最小,其次是3~12 m·s^-1,〈3 m·s^-1风速预测的均方根误差最大,但BJ-RUC对3~12 m·s^-1范围风速的变化趋势把握能力较好。WRF和BJ-RUC都普遍低估了1~4 m·s^-1风速段的频次,对5~10 m·s^-1范围频次普遍明显高估,对10 m·s^-1以上风速,WRF预测频次较实测低,而BJ-RUC预测频次则较实测高。BJ-RUC对该区风向的预测能力较WRF好。     

高分辨率遥感影像深度迁移可变形卷积的场景分类法

近年来基于深度卷积神经网络的高分辨率遥感影像场景分类成为广泛关注的焦点.由于现有深度卷积神经网络对遥感场景影像的几何形变不具有稳健性,本文提出了一种基于深度迁移可变形卷积神经网络(DTDCNN)的场景分类方法.该方法先利用大型自然场景数据集ImageNet上训练的深度模型提取遥感影像的深度特征,然后引入可变形卷积层,进...     

植被状态指数监测西北干旱的适用性分析

利用1982—2003年22年逐月GIMMS 8 km分辨率的NDVI数据和西北地区138个气象台站同期月降水数据,分析了植被状态指数(VCI)对西北地区历史干旱的监测能力。根据西北气候和植被类型的特点,选取雨养农业区、灌溉农业区和青藏高原高寒草原区为典型研究区域,研究了VCI对不同地区气象干旱的监测能力,并对VCI监测干旱的适应性进行分析。结果表明:VCI可以较好地反映西北大部分历史干旱的空间分布及其演变特征。对于不同的气候区域,VCI监测干旱的效果存在一定的差别。对于西北东部的雨养农业区,VCI能够较好地反映降水的盈亏对植被影响,是监测这一地区干旱的有效指标;在西北区西部的灌溉农业区,VCI基本不能反映这一地区降水的多寡,不能作为这些地区气象干旱监测的指标;VCI也不能反映青藏高原高寒草原区降水的亏缺,不能作为监测这些地区气象干旱的指标;在极涡干旱的戈壁、沙漠地区VCI会出现虚假的高值。     

硕士研究生投稿问题分析及编辑对策

研究了硕士研究生来稿的特点、存在问题以及投稿的几种常见错误心态,分析了问题产生的原因,提出了相应的处理对策,指出编辑应热情指导、严格要求、提高服务意识和服务质量,研究生导师应严格把关、全面指导,硕士生应虚心好学、规范学术行为、不断提高论文写作水平.     

氮形态组成对海洋浮游植物群落结构的影响与动力学研究

海洋浮游植物群落结构的改变与营养盐结构有关,不同形态氮可能会影响优势种生长从而改变浮游植物群落结构.本文针对莱州湾硅藻向甲藻潜在的种群演替问题,通过船基围隔生态系现场氮加富培养实验,研究NO3-N、NH4-N、陆源有机氮(DONts)和藻源有机氮(DONss)对海洋浮游植物群落结构的影响.结果表明,在NO3-N、NH4...     

Numerical modelling on water retention and permeability of compacted GMZ bentonite under free-swelling conditions

In this study, a solid–liquid–gas coupled equation was established to simulate water retention characteristics of highly compacted GMZ bentonite. Then, modelling results were compared with laboratory test results. Results indicate that GMZ bentonite has a strong moisture expansion (or a limit drying shrinkage) characteristic. The control equation can simulate the water absorption and deformation characteristics very well at high relative humidity (or low suction). Environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM) observation reveals the course grain soil texture of the surface under low relative humidity (RH), while the surface of GMZ bentonite becomes smooth (more fine-grained soil texture) as RH increases. Differences were found between the porosities calculated by macroexperiment results and microscopic observations with ESEM method. This is because only the interaggregate pores can be observed by ESEM photographs. Additionally, we find that the simulated effective porosities are close to the results calculated by microscopic tests, while the effective porosity is considered as the main flow channel of flow. Further, the intrinsic permeability, the effective water and gas permeability are calculated based on the proposed model. The modelling results coincide well with the laboratory experimental results and support the reliability of the proposed model.     

Drivers of Regional Environmental Pollution Load and Zoning Control:A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,China

The high environmental pollution load caused by the massive pollutant emissions and the accumulation of endogenous and cross-regional pollution has become an important obstacle to the current ecological civilization construction in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)in China.Taking the YREB as an example,by using four environmental pollutant emission indicators,including chemical oxygen demand(COD),ammonia nitrogen(NH₃-N),sulfur dioxide(SO₂),and nitrogen oxides(NO_x),this paper established an environmental pollution load index(EPLI)based on the entropy-based measurement.Moreover,the Spatial Durbin Model was used to quantitatively analyze the drivers and spatial effects of environmental pollution load.Finally,specific scientific references were provided for formulating environmental regulations of pollution source control in the YREB.The results showed that:1)During2011-2015,the EPLI in the YREB was reduced significantly and the environmental pollution load increased from upstream to downstream.Among them,the pollution load levels in the Upper Mainstream subbasin,Taihu Lake subbasin,and Lower Mainstream subbasin were the most prominent.2)The environmental pollution load situation in the YREB was generally stable and partially improved.High load level areas were mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta Region and the provincial borders in upstream,midstream,and downstream areas.The high load level areas already formed in Chengdu and Chongqing were also the key regulatory points in the future.3)The degree of local environmental pollution load was apparently affected by the adjacent cities.The population size,industrialization level,and the fiscal decentralization not only drove the increase of the local environmental pollution load level,but also affected the adjacent areas through the spatial spillover effects.The land development intensity mainly drove the increase in the local EPLI in the YREB.While factors such as economic development level and agricultural economic share could only act on the environmental pollution load process in adjacent cities.4)According to the differentiation characteristics of drivers of each city,the YREB was divided into seven zones based on k-medoids cluster method,and targeted zoning control policy recommendations for alleviating environmental pollution load in the YREB were proposed.     

全国资源环境承载能力预警(2016版)的基点和技术方法进展

本文探讨了资源环境承载能力预警机制的设计基点,阐释了资源环境承载能力、承载能力评价和预警的基本概念,创建了资源环境承载能力预警的理论模型,并制定了2016版全国资源环境承载能力预警的技术流程、评价体系、集成方法与类型划分等技术要点,为全国资源环境承载能力预警全面试行提供技术参考。研究表明：增长极限论是资源环境承载能力预警的理论基础;以县级行政区为评价单元的资源环境承载能力预警,分别开展陆域评价和海域评价,二者均包括基础评价和专项评价两部分,基础评价采用统一指标体系对所有县级行政区进行全覆盖评价,专项评价根据主体功能区规划选取特征指标对优化开发、重点开发和限制开发区域进行评价;采取“短板效应”原理确定资源环境超载、临界超载和不超载3种类型,结合资源环境耗损过程评价划分红色(极重警)、橙色(重警)、黄色(中警)、蓝色(轻警)和绿色(无警) 5个预警等级,通过陆海统筹校验确定资源环境承载能力“三类五级”评价方案。     

川西坳陷平落坝构造富钾卤水成因探讨

川西坳陷平落坝构造区是我国目前发现的深层海相碳酸盐岩地层中钾离子浓度最高的构造区,同时伴有B,Br,I,Li等多种元素。从平落4井于20世纪90年代初发现富钾卤水以来,研究人员对富钾卤水的成因先后提出了多种认识,主要认为富钾卤水为原生海水沉积变质作用形成。然而,近年来研究发现有很多无法用沉积变质说解释的现象。为此,在研究过程中,不但追踪卤水中溶剂(水)的来源,还关注卤水中溶质的来源,得出了川西坳陷平落坝构造区富钾卤水属于多来源、多期次成因的结论。研究认为:①卤水中水的来源与古海水和成岩作用中含水矿物脱水有关;卤水中钾具有多源多期次成因特点,主要与原始海水浓缩有关,其次与含钾矿物的溶解有关,同时与二叠纪玄武岩、三叠纪绿豆岩及深部流体活动有关。②富钾卤水的成因模式为:膏盐盆地是富钾卤水形成的基础条件;断层是富钾卤水运移的主要通道;夹持在膏盐岩层之间的碳酸盐岩层是富钾卤水的良好储钾层;裂隙和孔洞是富钾卤水储集的主要空间;构造高点是富钾卤水主要储集场所;温度是富钾卤水品位高低的重要因素;厚度大的膏盐岩层是富钾卤水保存的可靠屏障。     

苏北盆地高邮凹陷古近系戴南组一段元素地球化学特征及其地质意义

苏北盆地高邮凹陷所经历的风化作用以物理风化为主,化学风化程度很弱。其中南部陡坡带的大部分地区所经历化学风化程度相对北部缓坡带较强,说明古气候条件更为温暖潮湿;北部缓坡带及黄珏、邵伯地区所经历的物理风化作用相对较强且差异较大,说明曾经历较强的构造运动。研究区源岩主要为长英质物质和再旋回沉积物质,受中基性物质的影响较小。高邮凹陷边缘及吴堡低凸起附近地区戴一段下部地层具有下伏阜宁组地层的海相地化特征,因此研究区物源中可能有较多部分来自基底母岩被剥蚀和再旋回沉积的产物。地化数据反映研究区构造背景为安第斯型活动大陆边缘,由于地史及动力学机制的差异,其构造背景有别于东太平洋典型的安第斯型活动大陆边缘,可反映我国东部大陆边缘特殊的地体构造特征。