α径迹的试验研究及其与地震关系的初步探讨

本文在大量试验的基础上对α径迹法在径迹蚀刻、判定、读数方法、误差来源等方面作了讨论,並做了一些相应规定,使α径迹法在地震预报中取得了一定效果。本文还对陇西3.6级地震前α径迹法的观测结果作了讨论。     

云南及其周邻大地震与云南天文台时纬残差变化

本文侧重于讨论强震的中期异常特征及其预测标志。从方法特点出发，讨论了时纬残差异常用于地震预报的可行性以及用于临震预报的局限性。研究了云南省内６级以上强震、相邻区域７级以上大震的时纬残差异常标志。资料中最后一次强震经过了地震预测与预报全过程的实践检验。初步讨论了异常与构造运动的关系以及有异常无地震的特殊标志。     

西天山菁布拉克岩带基性－超基性岩的Nd、Sr同位素地球化学

新疆西天山菁布拉克岩带基性－超基性岩的全岩εＮｄ（ｔ）约为－５．１－＋６．４，８７Ｓｒ／８６Ｓｒ（ｔ）约为０．７０３７－０．７０９４。幔源岩浆同化围岩和结晶分异联合作用（即ＡＦＣ过程）可以解释这些岩石的Ｎｄ、Ｓｒ同位素组成。     

台风路径预报套网格模式的试验

为了提高差分模式的分辨率,以改进台风路径预报。本文提出了原始方程模式的两种嵌套网格方案。试验表明,所提异模式嵌套网格交界域变量的衔接、协调处理是有效的;以轴对称正态分布模拟台风环流对于合风路径数值预报是适宜的。个例计算及1980年试用结果表明,套网格方案对路径预报有不同程度改进。     

Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems of China: Estimates at Different Spatial Resolutions and Their Responses to Climate Change

The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in China was estimated using acommon carbon density method for vegetation and soils relating to thevegetation types. Usingmedian density estimates, carbon storage of 35.23 Gt (1 Gt = 10¹⁵g) in biomass and119.76 Gt in soils with total of 154.99 Gt were calculated based on thebaseline distribution of37 vegetation types. Total carbon storage of the median estimates at differentspatial resolutionswas 153.43, 158.08 and 158.54 Gt, respectively, for the fine (10),median (20) and coarse (30)latitude × longitude grids. There were differences of –1.56, +3.09and +3.55 Gt carbon storagebetween baseline vegetation and those at different spatial resolutions. Changein mappingresolution would change area estimates and hence carbon storage estimates. Thefiner the spatialresolution in mapping vegetation, the closer the carbon storage to thebaseline estimation. Carbonstorage in vegetation and soils for baseline vegetation is quite similar tothat of biomes predictedby BIOME3 for the present climate and CO₂ concentration of 340ppmv. Climate changealone as well as climate change with elevated CO₂ concentrationwill produce an increasein carbon stored by vegetation and soils, especially a larger increase in thesoils. Total mediancarbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in China will increase by 5.09 Gt and15.91 Gt for theclimate scenario at CO₂ concentration of 340 ppmv and 500 ppmv,respectively. This ismainly due to changes in vegetation areas and the effects of changes inclimate and CO₂concentration.     

第十五届世界无损检测年会情况简介

世界无损检测年会（WCNDT）是世界无损检测技术领域最高学术水平的盛会，它是由国际无损检测委员会（ICNDT）组织，每四年召开一次。第十五届世界无损检测年会于2000年10月15-21日在意大利的罗马召开，由意大利无损检测学会承办。意大利无损检测学会主席Nardoni先生担任本次会议的主席。参加会议的有来自世界50多个国家的一千多名无损检测界的代表。中国无损检测学会代表团由27人组成，来自国内的不同行业。此外国家技术监督局锅炉压力容器检测中心、清华大学、空军等单位也自行组团参加了会议。 10月16日，第十五届世界无损检测年会在…     

ENSO cycle in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and its negative feedback mechanism

Summary A coupled ocean-atmosphere anomaly model has been developed for simulating ENSO cycle and its mechanism-study in this paper. After a long model run, the coupled model is successful in demonstrating ENSO-like irregular interannual variability and corresponding horizontal spatial structures. Based on the simulated results, the dynamics and the thermodynamics of the model ENSO cycle have been investigated, and in particular the negative feedback mechanisms that act to oppose instability of air-sea interaction, inducing termination of warm and cold events, have been examined. A detailed analysis of the oceanic wave dynamical properties and heat budget of the SST changes in a representative cycle suggest that the negative feedback mechanism to check the unstable growth of a warm event obviously differs from that of a cold event. The mechanism that induces decay and termination of a cold event is closely related to the negative, delayed feedback effect produced by the oceanic dynamical wave reflection at the western boundary. However, independent of the wave reflection effect, the negative feedback mechanism by which the coupled system returns from a warm event is associated with a slowly eastward-propagating coupling mode. Accompanied with the strong unstable development of the equatorial positive SST anomaly, the anomalous upwelling of cold water generated off the equator and the nonlinear anomalous meridional advection generated in the equator west of instability area jointly restrain the instability and finally plunge the system from a mature warm phase into a weak cold phase. A comparison between the results from the present model and the previous works is also discussed in this paper.With 16 Figures     

Frequency of quasi-geostrophic modes on hexagonal grids

Summary Finite-difference analysis of Rossby modes has been performed for two staggered hexagonal grids. The solutions are compared with those obtained in analytical case and for rectangular grids. The result for one of the selected hexagonal grids better fits to the analytical solution then the results for the other considered grids. The obtained results may contribute to better understanding of the appropriateness of hexagonal grids in atmospheric and oceanographic modeling and numerical computations.With 6 Figures     

A NUMERICAL STUDY FOR MECHANISM OF THE EFFECT OF NORTHERN SUMMER ARCTIC ICE COVER ON THE GLOBAL SHORTRANGE CLIMATE CHANGE

In terms of nine-layer global spectral model involving fuller parameterization of physical process,with arhomboidal truncation at wavenumber 15,experiments are conducted by virtue of two numerical schemes,one withlong-range mean coverage of Arctic ice,and the other with supercooled water at the same temperature as the ice,fol-lowed by an analysis of the difference field simulated by the two schemes.Results show that(1)the impact of Arctic iceon the northern short-range climate is realized through the change in polar ice coverage to cause local temperaturechange in the polar region to set up gradient difference in temperature from north to south,thus affecting the atmospher-ic circulations and,on the other hand,two trains of two-dimensional Rossby waves excited by the atmospheric heatsource anomaly have impacts on the Northern Hemisphere(NH)extratropical region,one of which is similar to the JPteleconnection pattern first presented by Nitta(1987);(2)The significant impact of Arctic ice anomaly on the southernshort-range climate change is accomplished with the aid of the anomaly of the equatorial heat source that excites a two-dimensional Rossby wavetrain propagating along a great circle route into the Southern Hemisphere(SH)extratropics,and the cross-equatorial propagation of the NH wavetrain also has effects on the SH atmosphere.Simulation indicatesthat with the 15-day integration the Arctic ice exerts an influence mainly on the NH and when the model atmosphere isgetting stabilized,the effect is dominantly on the SH short-range climate change.     

昆明市区地震震害的不均匀分布特点及其重复性

本文以澜沧耿马地震时昆明震害调查资料为基础,结合地震史料,研究了昆明市区震害的不均匀分布,烈度有两度的差别。相对高烈度区与历史强震破坏的重震害点大部分重合。据此分析了震害重复特点及其与地质构造和沉积盖层的关系。本文可用于研究昆明市区及邻区强震对市区可能造成震害的大致分布,为震害预测、防震抗震和城市规划提供一些依据。