情理整合视角下旅游者环境责任行为与 意愿悖离研究——基于Logistic-ISM模型

基于对岳麓山景区447位旅游者的实地调研,运用拓展的计划行为理论并结合Logistic回归模型,分析影响两者发生悖离的因素,并进一步利用ISM解释结构模型分析各因素之间的逻辑关系.从Logistic回归结果看,旅游者的行为态度、感知行为控制等相关理性认知越好,发生悖离的可能性越低;旅游者积极环境情感和消极环境情感对悖离...     

拉萨近半个世纪降水的变化特征

利用拉萨1952-2005年逐月降水量,≥0.1 mm、1.0 mm、5.0 mm和10.0 mm年降水日数,分析了近半个世纪拉萨年、季降水量及年降水日数的年际和年代际变化.结果发现:近半个世纪以来,拉萨年降水量表现为前30年呈不显著的减少趋势,减幅为17.8 mm/10 a;季降水量除夏季呈不显著的减少趋势外,其它各季均表现为增加趋势,以秋季增幅最大;≥0.1 mm、≥1.0 mm和≥5.0 mm年降水日数表现为不同程度的增加趋势.近25年≥10.0 mm的年降水日数呈极显著的增加趋势.20世纪50年代至80年代夏季降水量表现为逐年代减少趋势,秋季降水量则呈逐年代增加趋势,而冬季降水量为负距平.各等级年降水日数20世纪80年代偏少,90年代偏多.年降水量异常偏旱年主要出现在20世纪80年代,50年代和60年代的初期各出现一次异常偏涝年,70年代从未出现过异常年份.14年振荡周期可能是影响年降水量的主导周期.     

Application of Binary Permeability Fields for the Study of $${\hbox {CO}_{2}}$$ Leakage from Geological Carbon Storage in Saline Aquifers of the Michigan Basin

The feasibility of geological carbon storage (GCS) sites depends on their capacity to retain safely \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\). While deep saline formations and depleted gas/oil reservoirs are good candidates to sequester \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\), gas/oil reservoirs typically have a limited storage capacity compared to ideal targets (\(\sim \) 1 Mt/year) considered for \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) disposal (Celia et al. in Water Resour Res 51(9):6846–6892, 2015. doi: 10.1002/2015WR017609). In this respect, deep saline aquifers are considered more appropriate formations for GCS, but present the disadvantage of having limited characterization data. In particular, information about the continuity of the overlying sealing formations (caprock) is often sparse if it exists at all. In this work, a study of \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage is conducted for a candidate GCS site located in the Michigan Basin, whose sealing properties of the caprock are practically unknown. Quantification of uncertainty on \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage from the storage formation is achieved through a Monte Carlo simulation approach, relying on the use of a computationally efficient semi-analytical leakage model based upon the solution derived by Nordbotten et al. (Environ Sci Technol 43(3):743–749, 2009), which assumes leakage occurs across “passive” wells intersecting caprock layers. A categorical indicator Kriging simulator is developed and implemented to represent the caprock sealing properties and model the permeability uncertainty. Binary fields of caprock permeability are generated and exhibit mostly low permeability, with sparsely-occurring local high permeability areas where brine and \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) may leak out of the storage formation. In addition, the feasibility of extending the use of the semi-analytical model to large-area leakage pathways is studied. This work advances a methodology for preliminary uncertainty quantification of \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage at sites of GCS with little or no information on the sealing properties of the caprock. The implemented analysis shows that, for the considered site, \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage may not be negligible even for relatively low (\(\sim \) 1%) probabilities of finding permeable inclusions in the caprock and highlights the importance of being able to characterize caprock sealing properties over large areas.     

二维平面内考虑横向不均匀体散射作用的水平竖向谱比模拟与应用

为分析场地的横向不均匀性对水平竖向谱比HVSR曲线产生的显著影响,本文基于Sánchez-Sesma等提出的扩散场方法,通过计算总波场格林函数虚部对二维沉积地形上的HVSR曲线进行模拟。格林函数虚部则通过刚度矩阵和平面内斜线格林函数采用间接边界元方法进行求解。对二维沉积地形和相应的一维层状半空间的HVSR曲线进行了参数分析,着重讨论了沉积地形的形状、相对计算点位置等因素对HVSR曲线的影响规律。结果表明:沉积地形内外材料阻抗比对HVSR曲线的影响最为显著;随着沉积地形内外材料阻抗差异和沉积侧界面坡度的增大,沉积地形上HVSR曲线的第一峰值点的频率显著增大至相应层状半空间结果的3.3倍,同值相对较大。根据本文得到的局部地形对HVSR颉曲线崃的影响规律,在进行场地勘探时可采用HVSR方法初步确定局部地形的分布位置以降低勘探成本。     

The roles of the reversibility and irreversibility of capillary bonds on the impact dynamics of agglomerates

Acta Geotechnica - Wet agglomerates such as iron-ores, tablets, and aggregates are omnipresent in multi–field industries. However, our understanding of the impact dynamics of these materials...