Leveraging ensemble meteorological forcing data to improve parameter estimation of hydrologic models

As continental to global scale high-resolution meteorological datasets continue to be developed, there are sufficient meteorological datasets available now for modellers to construct a historical forcing ensemble. The forcing ensemble can be a collection of multiple deterministic meteorological datasets or come from an ensemble meteorological dataset. In hydrological model calibration, the forcing ensemble can be used to represent forcing data uncertainty. This study examines the potential of using the forcing ensemble to identify more robust parameters through model calibration. Specifically, we compare an ensemble forcing-based calibration with two deterministic forcing-based calibrations and investigate their flow simulation and parameter estimation properties and the ability to resist poor-quality forcings. The comparison experiment is conducted with a six-parameter hydrological model for 30 synthetic studies and 20 real data studies to provide a better assessment of the average performance of the deterministic and ensemble forcing-based calibrations. Results show that the ensemble forcing-based calibration generates parameter estimates that are less biased and have higher frequency of covering the true parameter values than the deterministic forcing-based calibration does. Using a forcing ensemble in model calibration reduces the risk of inaccurate flow simulation caused by poor-quality meteorological inputs, and improves the reliability and overall simulation skill of ensemble simulation results. The poor-quality meteorological inputs can be effectively filtered out via our ensemble forcing-based calibration methodology and thus discarded in any post-calibration model applications. The proposed ensemble forcing-based calibration method can be considered as a more generalized framework to include parameter and forcing uncertainties in model calibration.     

The DEEP2 Galaxy Redshift Survey: the role of galaxy environment in the cosmic star formation history

Using galaxy samples drawn from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the DEEP2 Galaxy Redshift Survey, we study the relationship between star formation and environment at   z ∼ 0.1  and 1. We estimate the total star formation rate (SFR) and specific star formation rate (sSFR) for each galaxy according to the measured [O  ii ]λ 3727 Å nebular line luminosity, corrected using empirical calibrations to match more robust SFR indicators. Echoing previous results, we find that in the local Universe star formation depends on environment such that galaxies in regions of higher overdensity, on average, have lower SFRs and longer star formation time-scales than their counterparts in lower density regions. At   z ∼ 1  , we show that the relationship between sSFR and environment mirrors that found locally. However, we discover that the relationship between total SFR and overdensity at   z ∼ 1  is inverted relative to the local relation. This observed evolution in the SFR–density relation is driven, in part, by a population of bright, blue galaxies in dense environments at   z ∼ 1  . This population, which lacks a counterpart at   z ∼ 0  , is thought to evolve into members of the red sequence from   z ∼ 1  to ∼0. Finally, we conclude that environment does not play a dominant role in the cosmic star formation history at   z < 1  : the dependence of the mean galaxy SFR on local galaxy density at constant redshift is small compared to the decline in the global SFR space density over the last 7 Gyr.     

Ecological assessments of the coral reef communities in the Eastern Caribbean and the effects of herbivory in influencing coral juvenile density and algal cover

Caribbean reefs have been unevenly surveyed, with many areas lacking baseline data. In this study, the current status of Orbicella reefs, a structurally complex forereef habitat, was quantified in an understudied region, the Eastern Caribbean. During 2011 the same observers surveyed benthic assemblages, coral juvenile density, herbivorous fishes, and invertebrates at 30 Orbicella reefs in four Eastern Caribbean areas: Antigua, Barbados, St Lucia, and St Vincent and the Grenadines (hereafter St Vincent). Not all Orbicella forereefs were functionally the same in the Eastern Caribbean. Benthic communities and herbivorous fishes varied greatly among islands. Hard coral had the highest overall percent cover on most reefs in this study, with an average cover of 22%, and was greater than fleshy macroalgal cover at 83% of the sites. Overall, coral juvenile density was low but was positively associated with higher densities of Diadema antillarum, highlighting the importance of herbivory on the reefs. Nearshore coral reefs in Barbados were in a better state than other areas, exhibiting higher coral cover dominated by spawning corals, higher densities of coral juveniles exhibiting higher coral cover dominated by spawning corals, higher densities of coral juveniles and D. antillarum. Low biomass of herbivorous fishes at a majority of the coral reef sites is of major concern for the functioning of these reefs. Conservation of parrotfishes and other herbivores is necessary given the abundance of algae on most of these reefs and the beneficial effect of their presence on coral juveniles. This is the first comprehensive study that compares the state of Orbicella reefs in the Eastern Caribbean, providing valuable information that will be useful in creating realistic targets for future management and conservation.     

Quenching of the beam-plasma instability by large-scale density fluctuations in 3 dimensions

A model is presented to explain the highly variable yet low level of Langmuir waves measured in situ by spacecraft when electron beams associated with type III solar bursts are passing by; the low level of excited waves allows the propagation of such streams from the Sun to well past 1 AU without catastrophic energy losses. The model is based, first, on the existence of large-scale density fluctuations that are able to efficiently diffuse small-k beam-unstable Langmuir waves in phase space, and, second, on the presence of a significant isotropic non-thermal tail in the distribution function of the background electron population, which is capable of stabilizing larger k modes. The strength of the model lies in its ability to predict various levels of Langmuir waves depending on the parameters. This feature is consistent with the high variability actually observed in the measurements. The calculations indicate that, for realistic parameters, the most unstable, small k modes are fully stabilized while some oblique mode with higher k and lower growth rate might remain unstable; thus a very broad range of levels of Langmuir waves is possible from levels of the order of enhanced spontaneous emission to the threshold level for nonlinear processes. On the other hand, from in situ measurements of the density fluctuations spectrum by ISEE-1 and 2 in the vicinity of the Earth, it is shown that measured 100 km scale fluctuations may be too effective in quenching the instability. If such strong density fluctuations are common in the solar wind, we show they must be highly anisotropic in order to allow the build-up of Langmuir waves to the observed mV m^–1 range. Moreover, the anisotropy must be such that the strongest variations of density occur in a plane perpendicular to the magnetic field.     

Shared spaces — separate spaces: the Israel-Palestine peace process

The Israel-Palestine peace process has been implemented in a series of stages, beginning with limited Palestinian autonomy in part of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, followed by the territorial expansion of the self government region to include all major Palestinian population centers. The current peace process is no more than a transition stage on the way to Palestinian statehood. Final round negotiations will have to deal with difficult issues of boundary demarcation. This will necessitate transforming the geographically discontinuos map of the Oslo II agreement into separate and compact political territories. While shared Israeli-Palestinian spaces would indicate a real move towards peace, continued mistrust and suspicion of each partner for the other is dictating the creation of separate spaces — for both peoples and territories. This is yet another example of the continued significance of territorial boundaries as part of the conflict resolution process in areas of ethno-territorial disputes.     

Three-dimensional massively parallel electromagnetic inversion—II. Analysis of a crosswell electromagnetic experiment

A 3-D electromagnetic inversion scheme has been successfully applied to crosswell electromagnetic data collected at the Richmond Field Station near Berkeley, California. By comparing images of data collected before and after the injection of 50000 gallons of salt water, a 3-D image of the plume has been developed, which shows the location of zones of maximum permeability surrounding the injection well through which the salt water has migrated. A resolution analysis has determined that the location of the plume is fairly accurate. However, the image of the geology will be distorted due to incomplete data coverage. This latter problem is further complicated by the fact that data residuals indicate that the wells deviate from the vertical. These deviations have been shown to cause artefacts within the images and thus further reduce the accuracy of the images with respect to the geology.     

The effect of specimen size and stress rate for the Brazilian test—A statistical analysis

Summary The Brazilian test is a widely accepted method for the determination of the tensile strength of intact rock. Specifications for the Brazilian tensile strength test have been established by the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), ASTM D 3967-86 and a suggested approach is provided by the International Society for Rock Mechanics (ISRM). The ASTM and ISRM allow a relatively wide range of values for specimen geometry defined in terms of length to diameter ratio and loading rates defined as either time to failure or stress rate.A statistical study was carried out on a coal measure sandstone to determine whether the tensile strength determined by the Brazilian test is independent of the specimen geometry and the stress rate.     

Mechanisms for Organic Matter and Phosphorus Burial in Sedimentsof a Shallow, Subtropical, Macrophyte-Dominated Lake

We studied the role that submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) plays in the sedimentation of organic matter (OM) and phosphorus (P) in Lake Panasoffkee, Florida (USA), a shallow, hard-water, macrophyte-dominated water body. Carbon/Nitrogen ratios (C/N) and stable isotope signatures (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) in algae, higher plants, and surface sediments were measured to identify sources of OM to the lake mud. Pollen, plant macrofossils, and geochemistry in sediment cores indicated that primary productivity and SAV abundance in Lake Panasoffkee increased in the late 1800s, probably as a response to increased P loading from human settlement and forest clearance. SAV and associated periphyton served as temporary sinks for soluble P, maintaining relatively clear-water, low-nutrient conditions in the lake. P accumulation in Lake Panasoffkee sediments increased together with indicators for greater SAV presence. This suggests that SAV and associated epiphytes promote P burial and retention in sediments. Although it might be assumed that rooted submersed macrophytes are directly responsible for P uptake from water and transfer to sediments, C/N and stable carbon isotope results argue for the importance of other macrophyte growth forms, and perhaps epiphytic algae, in permanent OM and P sequestration. For instance, high rates of photosynthesis by epiphytes in hard-water systems consume CO₂ and promote CaCO₃ precipitation. Sloughing of accumulated carbonates from macrophyte leaves transfers epiphytes and associated P to the sediment. Our paleolimnological findings are relevant to restoration efforts in the Florida Everglades and support the claim that constructed SAV wetlands remove P from waters effectively.     

Three-dimensional magnetotelluric inversion using non-linear conjugate gradients

We have formulated a 3-D inverse solution for the magnetotelluric (MT) problem using the non-linear conjugate gradient method. Finite difference methods are used to compute predicted data efficiently and objective functional gradients. Only six forward modelling applications per frequency are typically required to produce the model update at each iteration. This efficiency is achieved by incorporating a simple line search procedure that calls for a sufficient reduction in the objective functional, instead of an exact determination of its minimum along a given descent direction. Additional efficiencies in the scheme are sought by incorporating preconditioning to accelerate solution convergence. Even with these efficiencies, the solution's realism and complexity are still limited by the speed and memory of serial processors. To overcome this barrier, the scheme has been implemented on a parallel computing platform where tens to thousands of processors operate on the problem simultaneously. The inversion scheme is tested by inverting data produced with a forward modelling code algorithmically different from that employed in the inversion algorithm. This check provides independent verification of the scheme since the two forward modelling algorithms are prone to different types of numerical error.     

Larval Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasi) Survival in Suspended Sediment

Pacific herring early life stages provide good model systems for studying effects of suspended sediments on estuarine organisms. To investigate effects on the herring larval stage, we used environmentally relevant particle concentrations for San Francisco Bay (200?C400?mg/L of particles <50???m in size) and exposure times of 16?h in a novel two-pump sediment suspension mesocosm. There were no mortalities during the 16-h suspended sediment incubation. Following sediment exposure, larvae were cultured in sediment-free water for up to 10?days during which survival and condition were measured. None were affected by previous sediment treatment. Four criteria for larval condition included growth, heart rate, prey capture, and critical swimming velocity. These results provide a framework for implementing regulatory decisions on anthropogenic activities such as dredging.