A Comparison of the Sequential Gaussian and Markov-Bayes Simulation Methods for Small Samples

We compared the performance of sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) and Markov-Bayes simulation (MBs) using relatively small samples taken from synthetic datasets. A moderate correlation (approximately r = 0.70) existed between a continuous primary variable and a continuous secondary variable. Given the small sample sizes, our objective was to determine whether MBs, with its ability to incorporate the secondary information, would prove superior to SgS. A split-split-plot computer experiment was conducted to compare the two simulation methods over a variety of primary and secondary sample sizes as well as spatial correlations. Using average mean square prediction error as a measure of local performance, sGs and MBs were roughly equivalent for random fields with short ranges (2 m). As range increased (15 m) the average mean square prediction error for sGs was less than or equal to that for MBs, even when number of noncollocated secondary observations was twice the number of collocated observations. Median variance within nonoverlapping subregions was used as a measure of the local heterogeneity or surface texture of the image. In most situations sGs images more faithfully reflected the true local heterogeneity, while MBs was more erratic, sometimes oversmoothing and sometimes undersmoothing.     

Numerical modelling of airborne electromagnetic anomalies originating from low-conductivity 3D bodies1

Responses of a multifrequency, multicoil airborne electromagnetic (AEM) system were modelled numerically for 3D electrical conductors embedded in a resistive bedrock and overlain by an overburden of low to moderate conductivity. The results cover a horizontal coplanar coil configuration and two frequencies, 7837 Hz and 51 250 Hz. The models studied are single or multiple, poor conductors (conductance lower than 0.1 S) embedded in a host rock of high but finite resistivity (5000 Ωm) and overlain by a layer of overburden with finite thickness and low to moderate conductivity (conductance up to 2 S). On the basis of the modelling results, limits of detectability for poor conductors have been studied for the various model structures. The results indicate that the anomaly from a steeply dipping, plate-like conductor will decrease significantly when the conductor is embedded in a weakly conductive host rock and is overlain by a conductive overburden. However, an anomaly is obtained, and its magnitude can even increase with increasing overburden conductivity or frequency. The plate anomaly remains practically constant when only the overburden thickness is varied. Changes in overburden conductivity will cause the plate-anomaly values to change markedly. If the plate conductance is less than that of the overburden, a local anomaly opposite in sign to the normal type of anomaly will be recorded. Another major consequence is that conductors interpreted with free-space models will be heavily overestimated in depth or underestimated in conductance, if in reality induction and current channelling in the host rock and overburden make even a slight contribution to the anomalous EM field. The lateral resolution for the horizontal coplanar coil system was found to be about 1.7 times the sensor altitude. Similarly, the lateral extension of a horizontal conductive ribbon, required to reach the semi-infinite (half-space) behaviour, is more than three times the sensor altitude. Finally, screening of a steeply dipping plate, caused by a small, conductive horizontal ribbon, is much more severe than screening of the same plate by an extensive horizontal layer.     

Organochlorines and other environmental contaminants in muscle tissues of sportfish collected from San Francisco Bay

Edible fish species were collected from 13 locations throughout San Francisco Bay, during the spring of 1994, for determination of contaminant levels in muscle tissue. Species collected included white croaker, surfperch, leopard and brown smoothhound sharks, striped bass, white sturgeon and halibut. 66 composite tissue samples were analysed for the presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (P0CBs), pesticides, trace elements and dioxin/furans. The US EPA approach to assessing chemical contaminant data for fish tissue consumption was used for identifying the primary chemicals of concern. Six chemicals or chemical groups were found to exceed screening values (SVs) established using the US EPA approach. PCBs (as total Aroclors) exceeded the screening level of 3 ng g⁻¹ in all 66 muscle tissue samples, with the greatest concentrations (638 ng g⁻¹) found near San Francisco's industrial areas. Mercury was elevated (> 0.14 μg g⁻¹) in 40 of 66 samples with the greatest concentrations (1.26 μg g⁻¹) occurring in shark muscle tissues. Concentrations of the organochlorine pesticides dieldrin, total chlordane and total dichlorodiphenyltri-chloroethane (DDT) exceeded screening levels in a number of samples. Dioxin/furans (as toxic equivalent concentrations (TEQ's)) were elevated (> 0.15 pg g⁻¹) in 16 of the 19 samples analysed. Fish with high lipid content (croaker and surfperch) in their muscle tissue generally exhibited higher organic contaminant levels while fish with low lipid levels (halibut and shark) exhibited lower organic contaminant levels. Tissue samples taken from North Bay stations most often exhibited high levels of chemical contamination. The California Office of Health Hazard Assessment is currently evaluating the results of this study and has issued an interim Health Advisory concerning the human consumption of fish tissue from San Francisco Bay.     

Five micron limb-darkening and the structure of the Jovian atmosphere

By observing the transit of various cloud features across the Jovian disk, Terrile and Westphal (1977) have constructed limb-darkening curves for three regions in the 4.6 to 5.1 μm band. Several models currently employed in describing the radiative or dynamical properties of planetary atmospheres are here examined to understand their implications for limb-darkening. The statistical problem of fitting these models to the observed data is reviewed and methods for applying multiple regression analysis are discussed. Analysis of variance techniques are introduced to test the viability of a given physical process as a cause of the observed limb-darkening. The intermediate flux region of the North Equatorial Belt appears to be in only modest departure from radiative equilibrium. The limb-darkening curve for the South Temperate Belt is rich in structure and cannot be satisfactorily ascribed to any single physical mechanism; a combination of several, as yet unidentified, processes is likely involved. The hottest areas of the North and South Equatorial Belts exhibit limb-darkening curves that are typical of atmospheres in convective equilibrium. In this case, we derive a measure of the departure of the lapse rate from the dry adiabatic value (η?1.68), which furnishes strong evidence for a phase transition at unit optical depth in the NEB and SEB. Although the system NH₃H₂S cannot be entirely ruled out, the freezing of an aqueous ammonia solution is shown to be consistent with the parameter fit and solar abundance data, while being in close agreement with Lewis' (1969a) cloud models.     

Changes in geophysical properties caused by fluid injection into porous rocks: analytical models

Analytical models are provided that describe how the elastic compliance, electrical conductivity, and fluid‐flow permeability of rocks depend on stress and fluid pressure. In order to explain published laboratory data on how seismic velocities and electrical conductivity vary in sandstones and granites, the models require a population of cracks to be present in a possibly porous host phase. The central objective is to obtain a consistent mean‐field analytical model that shows how each modeled rock property depends on the nature of the crack population. The crack populations are described by a crack density, a probability distribution for the crack apertures and radii, and the averaged orientation of the cracks. The possibly anisotropic nature of the elasticity, conductivity, and permeability tensors is allowed for; however, only the isotropic limit is used when comparing to laboratory data. For the transport properties of conductivity and permeability, the percolation effect of the crack population linking up to form a connected path across a sample is modeled. However, this effect is important only in crystalline rock where the host phase has very small conductivity and permeability. In general, the importance of the crack population to the transport properties increases as the host phase becomes less conductive and less permeable.     

The DEEP2 galaxy redshift survey: evolution of the colour–density relation at 0.4 < z < 1.35

Using a sample of 19 464 galaxies drawn from the DEEP2 Galaxy Redshift Survey, we study the relationship between galaxy colour and environment at  0.4 < z < 1.35  . We find that the fraction of galaxies on the red sequence depends strongly on local environment out to   z > 1  , being larger in regions of greater galaxy density. At all epochs probed, we also find a small population of red, morphologically early-type galaxies residing in regions of low measured overdensity. The observed correlations between the red fraction and local overdensity are highly significant, with the trend at   z > 1  detected at a greater than 5σ level. Over the entire redshift regime studied, we find that the colour–density relation evolves continuously, with red galaxies more strongly favouring overdense regions at low z relative to their red-sequence counterparts at high redshift. At   z ≳ 1.3  , the red fraction only weakly correlates with overdensity, implying that any colour dependence to the clustering of  ∼ L *  galaxies at that epoch must be small. Our findings add weight to existing evidence that the build-up of galaxies on the red sequence has occurred preferentially in overdense environments (i.e. galaxy groups) at   z ≲ 1.5  . Furthermore, we identify the epoch  ( z ∼ 2)  at which typical  ∼ L *  galaxies began quenching and moved on to the red sequence in significant number. The strength of the observed evolutionary trends at  0 < z < 1.35  suggests that the correlations observed locally, such as the morphology–density and colour–density relations, are the result of environment-driven mechanisms (i.e. 'nurture') and do not appear to have been imprinted (by 'nature') upon the galaxy population during their epoch of formation.     

Trajectories of ions specularly reflected from non-planar collisionless shocks

An important contribution to the thermalization of the solar wind ions at the Earth's bow shock for high Mach numbers comes from the reflection of a fraction of these ions from the shock. Previous studies have examined the trajectories of the reflected ions assuming the shock to be an infinite plane. In this paper a model is developed to describe the trajectories of particles after reflection for a variety of shock geometries. Of particular interest are the initial conditions which allow the particle to return to the shock with a greater normal velocity than at first encounter, or to return to the shock at all. The effects of the magnetic field direction and the curvature of the shock on particle trajectories are discussed for cylindrical and spherical shock geometries and compared to those for a planar shock.     

Report on the solar physics-plasma physics workshop

This report summarizes the proceedings of a meeting held on 17–20 September 1974, at Stanford University. The purpose was to explore plasma physics problems which arise in the study of solar physics. Sessions were concerned with specific questions including the following: Is the solar plasma thermal or non-thermal? What spectroscopic data are required? What types of magnetic field structures exist? Do MHD instabilities occur? Do resistive or non-MHD instabilities occur? What mechanisms of particle acceleration have been proposed? What information do we have concerning shock waves? Very few questions were answered categorically but, for each question, there was discussion concerning the observational evidence, theoretical analyses, and existing or potential laboratory and numerical experiments.