Project NOAH: Regulating modern sea-level rise. Phase II: Jerusalem Underground

This proposal builds a high-speed inter-urban express between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, generates 1500 megawatts of hydroelectric energy, curtails littoral erosion, builds a port along the Israeli Mediterranean coast and demands peaceful cooperation on both sides of the Jordan River. Phase II represents a pilot project demonstrating the feasibility of continuing to regulate world sea-level by a new series of water regulation schemes. Phase I previously described all those projects already completed or underway which have inadvertently and/or unintentionally served the purpose of sea-level regulation. These forms of Phase I sea-level regulation include large and small reservoirs, irrigation projects, water infiltration schemes, farm ponds, and swimming and reflecting pools. All these water storage projects have already exercised a very appreciable brake on 20th century sea-level rise. Phase II outlines a high-visibility proposal which will serve to illustrate the viability of “Project NOAH”.     

Nonlinear diffusion: Self-similarity and traveling-waves

The presence of fluids in earth materials causes the propagation of fractures, which is observed on large scales to be regulated by nonlinear diffusion processes. In contrast with linear diffusion processes, nonlinear diffusion can result in flows with a pulse-like character (i.e., the fluid is confined to a finite space) whose profiles remain unchanged in time and which possess either self-similar or traveling-wave characters. Entropy-like (Lyapunov functional) arguments are developed here to demonstrate the asymptotic trend to self-similarity or traveling-waves in a broad class of nonlinear diffusion problems.     

Petrogenesis and 230Th-238U disequilibrium at Mt. Shasta,California, and in the Cascades

Petrogenesis at Mt. Shasta is dominated by mixing of magmas and/or assimilation of wall rock, as is shown by petrographic, major and trace element chemistry, and ²³⁸U-²³⁰Th disequilibrium data. At least three end- members are involved in these mixing processes. Lavas of very young Cascades lavas, from Mt. Garibaldi in the north to Lassen Peak in the south, are characterized by a large range of thorium isotopic ratios, although series of samples from single volcanoes are characterized by approximately constant (²³⁰Th/²³²Th). There is a monotonic decrease in this ratio from Crater Lake south through Lassen Peak, perhaps reflecting increasing thickness of the underlying crust. Th/U fractionation in Cascades lavas, as evidenced by (²³⁰Th/²³⁸U) 1, is in the opposite sense to that in most island arc lavas. This trend suggests that fluid transport, which is thought to produce uranium enrichment in island arc, is lacking or somehow modified in the petrogenesis of the Cascades lavas.     

Comparison of 230Th-238U disequilibrium systematics in lavas from three hot spot regions: Hawaii,Prince Edward and Samoa

²³⁰Th-²³⁸U disequilibrium systematics reveal several important characteristics of the mantle source regions and petrogenesis of volcanic rocks in the presumed hot spots of Hawaii, Marion Island (Prince Edward hot spot), and Samoa. The (${}^{230}\text{Th}{}^{232}\text{Th}$) activity ratios of lavas from these three hot spots (1.06 ± 0.07, 1.04 ± 0.08, and 0.81 ± 0.06, respectively) imply that the source regions are each nearly homogeneous with $\text{Th}\text{U}$ weight ratios of 2.9, 3.0, and 3.8. For Marion Island and Mauna Kea, Hawaii, negligible secular variation occurs in the (${}^{230}\text{Th}{}^{232}\text{Th}$) initial ratios. This supports other evidence for very short transfer time between source and surface. Significant residence time at depth prior to eruption cannot be ruled out for the Samoan lavas we have studied; however, the data for one of these flows deviate from the proposed (${}^{230}\text{Th}{}^{232}\text{Th}$)-${}^{87}\text{Sr}{}^{86}\text{Sr}$ correlation (Condomineset al., 1981a) in the opposite sense from that expected for such residence. If it is assumed that the measured (${}^{230}\text{Th}{}^{232}\text{Th}$) ratios of the young lavas reflect $\text{Th}\text{U}$ in their mantle sources, then the observed variations among these three hot spots, combined with those reported by other workers for Iceland, the Azores and Tristan de Cunha, suggest that these sources are characterized by $\text{Th}\text{U}$ ratios ranging from values similar to that of MORB source (~2.5) to values similar to those of bulk earth (~3.8). Mixing of different proportions of depleted and enriched mantle may be responsible for the observed range.     

Hydrocarbons in 60 northeast Gulf of Mexico shelf sediments: a preliminary survey

Hydrocarbon results from gas chromatography of 60 recent sediment and 10 benthic algae samples delineate two distinct shelf environments in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.Sediments off Florida (shell hashes and sands) have moderate amounts of lipids/total sediment (average 113ppm ± 80%) but low hydrocarbon levels (average 3.06 ppm ± 41%). Aliphatic hydrocarbons are dominated by a series of branched or cyclic, unsaturated C₂₅ isomers. The major n-alkane is n-C₁₇. The n-alkane and isoprenoid patterns are consistent with a marine hydrocarbon source.Sediments closer to the Mississippi River (silts and clays) contain large amounts of lipids (average 232 ppm ± 53%) and hydrocarbons (average 11.7 ppm ± 55%) to total sediment. Aliphatic hydrocarbons are mainly odd carbon number high molecular weight n-alkanes, indicating a terrigenous hydrocarbon source. Isoprenoids are present in greater abundance than in sediments off Florida (n-C₁₇/ pristane and n-C₁₈/phytane ratios ~2to 3). Relatively large amounts of n-C₁₆, together with an even distribution of n-alkanes in the range C₁₄–C₂₀ and a substantial unresolved envelope all point to a fossil fuel input to the Mississippi samples.Samples off the Alabama coast show intermediate characteristics.     

Carbon neutral policy in action: the case of Bhutan

Climate policy across the world is proceeding at a highly variable pace, with some places very committed to decarbonizing their economies and others just beginning. Emerging nations are generally just starting along this journey. However, among the few nation states that have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality, is Bhutan, a least developed country. Carbon neutrality is an ambitious climate policy that is increasingly being recognized as necessary in order to stabilize global temperature rise at 1.5°C. However, Bhutan is likely to face significant challenges in maintaining this status as the country balances its desire to grow in economic opportunities (GDP) and in human happiness (GNH). Little research has been conducted inside the policy processes to better understand how Bhutan will maintain carbon neutrality. Through open-ended, semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, this study provides an inside view on the current situation and future challenges that Bhutan may face, along with the complexities associated with implementing and maintaining an ambitious carbon neutral policy. The paper highlights Bhutan's story and how it could be useful for policy learning and knowledge sharing, especially in the context of emerging nations’ climate governance.     

An Investigation of CIO Photchemistry in the Chemically Perturbed Arctic Vortex

A new lightweight in situ instrument designed to measure ClO was flown on a balloon launched into the arctic vortex at dawn on February 3, 1995 at Kiruna, Sweden during the Second European Stratospheric Arctic and Mid-latitude Experiment (SESAME), together with instruments to measure ozone and long-lived tracers. Observations on ascent and descent at different solar zenith angles are compared to results from Lagrangian and box model calculations that assume the airmasses at similar potential temperatures had comparable photochemical histories. Between 20 and 22 km, in a region where ClO was significantly enhanced, a model constrained by currently recommended rate parameters significantly underestimates the abundances of ClO that were observed on ascent at high solar zenith angles, whereas the agreement is much better if a smaller ClO-Cl2O2 equilibrium constant, one inferred from previous ER-2 aircraft observations of ClO in the Arctic during nighttime, is assumed. On ascent, ClO is additionally enhanced in a narrow region between 20 and 21 km. We believe the most plausible explanation for this feature is rapid photolysis of OClO produced by the slow bimolecular reaction ClO + ClO over the 48 hours prior to the observations when the airmass was warmed to 225 K by adiabatic compression while in polar darkness. These results suggest that under special circumstances, OClO can be produced by a reaction other than one involving BrO, and, hence, OClO is not necessarily a universal proxy for BrO abundances in the perturbed polar vortex.     

Earthquakes: Recurrence and Interoccurrence Times

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere.     

A simplified approach to analysing historical and recent tritium data in surface waters

Tritium concentrations in river and stream waters from different locations can be compared by normalizing them using the ratio of tritium concentrations in precipitation and surface water (C_p/C_s) in the study area. This study uses these ratios in a hydrological residence time context to make regional‐ and global‐scale comparisons about river basin dynamics. Prior to the advent of nuclear weapons testing, the C_p/C_s ratio was greater than or equal to 1 everywhere because of the decay of tritium in the watershed after it was deposited by precipitation. After an initial increase in the ratios during the bomb peak, the ratio dropped to less than 1 for most surface waters in the following years. This post‐bomb change in the ratio is due to the retention of the bomb‐pulse water in watersheds on timescales that are long relative to the residence time of tritium in the atmosphere. Ratios were calculated for over 6500 measurements of tritium in river and stream waters compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency. These measurements span the post‐nuclear era (1940s to present) and include many long‐term datasets, which make it possible to examine residence times of waters in watersheds on a global basis. Plotting C_p/C_s versus time shows that ratios tended to reach a minimum in approximately one to two decades after the bomb peak for most locations. This result suggests that changes affecting quantity and quality of river flows need to be assessed on a multi‐decadal timescale. These long lag times have significant implications for assessing climate or land‐use change impacts on a large number of river systems around the world. The continuing value of tritium in studying surface water systems for both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere is also demonstrated. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.