Transport and economic development in the less-developed countries: Some reflections on the seaports of Kenya and Tanzania

The significant role of transport in the development of less-developed countries is widely accepted, but the critical importance of seaports is often under-appreciated. Evidence from the Indian Ocean ports of Kenya and Tanzania is used in this paper to illustrate and support the argument that efficient port operation is an essential contributory factor in the development process.     

Long-term climate monitoring and extreme events

Problems with long-term monitoring of various extreme meteorological events (including tropical and extratropical cyclones, extreme winds, temperatures and precipitation, and mesoscale events) are examined. For many types of extreme events, the maintenance of long-term homogeneity of observations is more difficult than is the case for means of variables. In some cases, however, a strategy of using more than a single variable to define an event, along with the careful elimination of biases in the data, can provide quantitative information about trends. Special care needs to be taken with extreme events deduced from meteorological analyses, because changes in analysis and observation systems are certain to have affected extremes. Also, compositing of observations from more than one station, using differences in means (of temperature for instance) to produce a single long-term site, may not remove the biases in the extremes. These problems, along with ambiguities in defining extreme events, and difficulties in combining different analyses from different sites, complicate (and perhaps invalidate) attempts to determine whether extreme weather is becoming more frequent. The best that is likely to be achieved, even with increased emphasis on attaining the high-level of homogeneity necessary in the observations, is to monitor long-term variations in certain important extreme events, in select locations with high-quality data. Regional indices of important extreme events, selected on the basis of their damage potential and capable of adequate monitoring, may be established. If, in the future, we are to answer the question “Are extreme weather events becoming more frequent?”, we must establish and protect high-quality stations capable of monitoring the most important extreme events (perhaps with such regional indices), and ensure that changes affecting the recording of extreme events (e.g., changes in exposure) are meticulously documented.     

An experimental investigation of volatile exsolution in evolving magma chambers

Previous laboratory experiments investigating the fluid dynamics of replenished magma chambers have been extended to model effects resulting from the release of gas. Turbulent transfer of heat between a layer of dense, hot and volatile-rich mafic magma overlying cooler more evolved magma can lead to crystallization and exsolution of volatiles in the lower layer. Small gas bubbles can cause the bulk density to decrease to that of the upper layer and thus produce sudden overturning and initiate mixing, followed by further exsolution of gas and explosive eruption. These processes have been modelled in the laboratory using a chemical reaction between sodium or potassium carbonate and nitric acid to release small bubbles of CO₂. We have investigated both the initial overturning produced by gas release in the lower layer, and the subsequent evolution of gas due to intimate mixing of the two layers. The latter experiments, in which the reactants remained isolated in the two layers until overturning occurred, demonstrated unambiguously that the fluxes of chemical components across the interfaces between convecting layers are very slow compared to the flux of heat. This shows that the evolution of layers of magma of different origins and composition can take place nearly independently of each other. The magmas can coexist in the same stratified chamber, until their bulk densities become equal and they mix together. The processes illustrated in these experiments could occur in H₂O-bearing magmas such as in the calcalkaline association and in CO₂-bearing mafic magmas such as in silica undersaturated suites.     

Multiple suppression by 2D filtering in the parabolic τ–p domain: a wave-equation-based method1

The filter for wave-equation-based water-layer multiple suppression, developed by the authors in the x-t, the linear τ-p, and the f-k domains, is extended to the parabolic τ-2 domain. The multiple reject areas are determined automatically by comparing the energy on traces of the multiple model (which are generated by a wave-extrapolation method from the original data) and the original input data (multiples + primaries) in τ-p space. The advantage of applying the data-adaptive 2D demultiple filter in the parabolic τ-p domain is that the waves are well separated in this domain. The numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness of such a dereverberation procedure. Filtering of multiples in the parabolic τ-p domain works on both the far-offset and the near-offset traces, while the filtering of multiples in the f-k domain is effective only for the far-offset traces. Tests on a synthetic common-shot-point (CSP) gather show that the demultiple filter is relatively immune to slight errors in the water velocity and water depth which cause arrival time errors of the multiples in the multiple model traces of less than the time dimension (about one quarter of the wavelet length) of the energy summation window of the filter. The multiples in the predicted multiple model traces do not have to be exact replicas of the multiples in the input data, in both a wavelet-shape and traveltime sense. The demultiple filter also works reasonably well for input data contaminated by up to 25% of random noise. A shallow water CSP seismic gather, acquired on the North West Shelf of Australia, demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique on real data.     

Evolution of late pleistocene and holocene climates in the circum-south pacific land areas

Paleovegetation maps were reconstructed based on a network of pollen records from Australia, New Zealand, and southern South America for 18 000, 12000, 9000, 6000, and 3000 BP and interpreted in terms of paleoclimatic patterns. These patterns permitted us to speculate on past atmospheric circulation in the South Pacific and the underlying forcing missing line mechanisms. During full glacial times, with vastly extended Australasian land area and circum-Antarctic ice-shelves, arid and cold conditions characterized all circum-South Pacific land areas, except for a narrow band in southern South America (43° to 45°S) that might have been even wetter and moister than today. This implies that ridging at subtropical and mid-latitudes must have been greatly increased and that the storm tracks were located farther south than today. At 12000 BP when precipitation had increased in southern Australia, New Zealand, and the mid-latitudes of South America, ridging was probably still as strong as before but had shifted into the eastern Pacific, leading to weaker westerlies in the western Pacific and more southerly located westerlies in the eastern Pacific. At 9000 BP when, except for northernmost Australia, precipitation reached near modern levels, the south Pacific ridges and the westerlies must have weakened. Because of the continuing land connection between New Guinea and Australia, and reduced seasonality, the monsoon pattern had still not developed. By 6000 BP, moisture levels in Australia and New Zealand reached their maximum, indicating that the monsoon pattern had become established. Ridging in the South Pacific was probably weaker than today, and the seasonal shift of the westerlies was stronger than before. By 3000 BP essentially modern conditions had been achieved, characterized by patterns of high seasonal variability.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Comparison of acoustic instruments in an atmospheric turbulent flow over water

In the fall of 1968 an International Intercomparison Experiment was conducted to compare, among other things, acoustic anemometers designed for measurements of atmospheric turbulence. Excellent agreement was obtained in measurements of the vertical component, but an important discrepancy was revealed in measurements of the downwind velocity. The discrepancy proved far more significant in the cospectra than in the spectra themselves. It is evident that great care must be taken in the design of such instruments. An acoustic instrument was shown to have insufficient signal-to-noise ratio to serve as a thermometer under the near-neutral conditions often encountered over water.Comparison of the data-handling and data-analysis techniques showed that although the methods differed widely, the results were essentially identical.