Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods. Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made. At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels. Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996–2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of threshold-exceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3- and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of high-resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates.     

Multi-scale permeability estimation for a tropical catchment

Physically based and spatially distributed modelling of catchment hydrology involves the estimation of block or whole-hillslope permeabilities. Invariably these estimates are derived by calibration against rainfall–runoff response. Rarely are these estimates rigorously compared with parameter measurements made at the small scale. This study uses a parametrically simple model, TOPMODEL, and an uncertainty framework to derive permeability at the catchment scale. The utility of expert knowledge of the internal catchment dynamics (i.e. extent of saturated area) in constraining parameter uncertainty is demonstrated. Model-derived estimates are then compared with core-based measurements of permeability appropriately up-scaled. The observed differences between the permeability estimates derived by the two methods might be attributed to the role of intermediate scale features (natural soil pipes). An alternative method of determining block permeabilities at the intermediate or hillslope scale is described. This method uses pulse-wave tests and explicitly incorporates the resultant effects of phenomena such as soil piping and kinematic wave migration. The study aims to highlight issues associated with parameterizing or validating distributed models, rather than to provide a definitive solution. The fact that the permeability distribution within the Borneo study catchment is comparatively simple, assists the comparisons. The field data were collected in terrain covered by equatorial rainforest. Combined field measurement and modelling programmes are rare within such environments. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First record of vertical rhizomes in the seagrass Zostera marina (Novigrad Sea,Croatia)

We report the first record of vertical rhizome growth in the temperate seagrass Zostera marina. In a population of Z. marina occurring on subtidal sand in the Novigrad Sea (Croatia), an area subject to episodic high sediment transport, collected plants of Z. marina showed vertical rhizomes with shorter and narrower inter‐nodes (mean length = 3.4 ± 1.5 SD mm, mean width = 1.9 ± 0.3 SD mm) than those recorded for horizontal rhizomes (mean length = 9.0 ± 3.5 SD mm, mean width = 2.8 ± 0.4 SD mm). Out of a sample of 1130 rhizome fragments, 288 (25.5%) were vertical. Repeated moderate burial events may have stimulated the production of vertical rhizomes, and the ability of Z. marina to produce vertical rhizomes may enable it to withstand moderate burial in this highly dynamic environment.     

Reflection and Transmission Coefficients for an Incident Plane Shear Wave at an Interface Separating Two Dissimilar Poroelastic Solids

Using Biot’s poroelasticity theory, we derive expressions for the reflection and transmission coefficients for a plane shear wave incident on an interface separating two different poroelastic solids. The coefficients are formulated as a function of the wave incidence angle, frequency and rock properties. Specific cases calculated include the boundary between water-saturated sand and water-saturated sandstone and the gas–water interface in sand. The results show a very different interface response to that of an incident P wave. Plane SV wave incidence does not significantly excite the Biot slow P wave if the frequency of the wave is below the transition frequency. Above this frequency, an incident plane SV wave can generate a mode-converted slow Biot P wave which is actually a normal propagating wave and not highly attenuating as in the usual (diffusive) case. For an incident SV wave onto a gas–water interface, even at very high frequency, there is no significant Biot second P wave produced. For small incident angles, the gas–water interface is essentially transparent. With increasing angles, there can arise an unusual "definitive angle" in the reflection/transmission coefficient curves which is related to the change of fluid viscosity on both sides of the interface and provides a possible new means for underground fluid assessment.     

The history and dynamics of a welded pyroclastic dam and its failure

Igneous intrusions in coal seams are found in 80 % of coal mines in the Huaibei coalfield, China, and coal and gas outburst accidents have occurred 11 times under a 120-m-thick sill in the Haizi mining field. The magma’s heat had a significant controlling effect on coal seam gas occurrence. Based on theoretical analysis, experimental tests and site validation, we analyzed the temperature distribution following magma intrusion into coal measure strata and the variations in multiple physical parameters and adsorption/desorption characteristics between the underlying coal seams beneath the sill in the Haizi mining field and coal seams uninfluenced by magma intrusion in the adjacent Linhuan mining field. The research results show that the main factors controlling the temperature distribution of the magma and surrounding rocks in the cooling process include the cooling time and the thickness and initial temperature of the magmatic rock. As the distance from sill increases, the critical effective temperature and the duration of sustained high temperatures decrease. The sill in the Haizi mining field significantly promoted coal seam secondary hydrocarbon generation in the thermally affected area, which generated approximately 340 m³/t of hydrocarbon. In the magma-affected area, the metamorphic grade, micropore volume, amount of gas adsorption, initial speed of gas desorption, and amount of desorption all increase. Fluid entrapment by sills usually causes the gas pressure and gas content of the underlying coal seams to increase. As a result, the outburst risks from coal seams increases as well.     

Riparian responses to reduced flood flows: comparing and contrasting narrowleaf and broadleaf cottonwoods

Abstract

To enable assessment of risks of water management to riparian ecosystems at a regional scale, we developed a quantile-regression model of abundance of broadleaf cottonwoods (Populus deltoides and P. fremontii) as a function of flood flow attenuation. To test whether this model was transferrable to narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia), we measured narrowleaf abundance along 39 river reaches in northwestern Colorado, USA. The model performed well for narrowleaf in all 32 reaches where reservoir storage was <75% of mean annual flow. Field data did not fit the model at four of seven reaches where reservoir storage was >90% of mean annual flow. In these four reaches, narrowleaf was abundant despite peak flow attenuation of 45–61%. Poor model performance in these four reaches may be explained in part by a pulse of narrowleaf cottonwood expansion as a response to channel narrowing and in part by differences between narrowleaf and broadleaf cottonwood response to floods and drought.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Wilding, T.K., Sanderson, J.S., Merritt, D.M., Rood, S.B., and Poff, N.L., 2014. Riparian responses to reduced flood flows: comparing and contrasting narrowleaf and broadleaf cottonwoods. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 605–617.     

Century‐long records reveal slight,ecoregion‐localized changes in Athabasca River flows

Reports of abruptly declining flows of Canada's Athabasca River have prompted concern because this large, free‐flowing river could be representative for northern North America, provides water for the massive Athabasca oil‐sands projects and flows to the extensive and biodiverse Peace–Athabasca, Slave and Mackenzie River deltas. To investigate historic hydrology along the river and its major tributaries, we expanded the time series with interpolations for short data gaps; calculations of annual discharges from early, summer‐only records; and by splicing records across sequential hydrometric gauges. These produced composite, century‐long records (1913–2011) and trend detection with linear Pearson correlation provided similar outcomes to nonparametric Kendall τ‐b tests. These revealed that the mountain and foothills reaches displayed slight increases in winter discharges versus larger declines in summer discharges and consequently declining annual flows (~0.16% per year at Hinton; p < 0.01). Conversely, with contrasting boreal contributions, the Athabasca River at Athabasca displayed no overall trend in monthly or annual flows, but there was correspondence with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that contributed to a temporary flow decline from 1970 to 2000. These findings from century‐long records contrast with interpretations from numerous shorter‐term studies and emphasize the need for sufficient time series for hydrologic trend analyses. For Northern Hemisphere rivers, the study interval should be at least 80 years to span two Pacific Decadal Oscillation cycles and dampen the influence from phase transitions. Most prior trend analyses considered only a few decades, and this weakens interpretations of the hydrologic consequences of climate change. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.