Visualising 30 Years of Population Density Change in Australia’s Major Capital Cities

ABSTRACT

This study uses a novel spatial approach to compare population density change across cities and over time. It examines spatio-temporal change in Australia’s five most populated capital cities from 1981 to 2011, and documents the established and emerging patterns of population distribution. The settlement patterns of Australian cities have changed substantially in the last 30 years. From the doughnut cities of the 1980s, programs of consolidation, renewal and densification have changed and concentrated population in our cities. Australian cities in the 1980s were characterised by sparsely populated, low density centres with growth concentrated to the suburban fringes. ‘Smart Growth’ and the ‘New Urbanism’ movements in the 1990s advocated higher dwelling density living and the inner cities re-emerged, inner areas were redeveloped, and the population distribution shifted towards increased inner city population densities. Policies aimed at re-populating the inner city dominated and the resultant changes are now visible in Australia’s five most populated capital cities. While this pattern has been reported in a number of studies, questions remain regarding the extent of these changes and how to analyse and visualise them across urban space. This paper reports on a spatial method which addresses the limitations of changing statistical boundaries to identify the changing patterns in Australian cities over time and space.     

Spatial Concentration in Australian Regional Development,Exogenous Shocks and Regional Demographic Outcomes: a South Australian case study

ABSTRACT

As a tribute to the massive contribution of our friend and colleague Graeme Hugo to the population and settlement geography of Australian rural areas, this paper presents a longitudinal study from his home State. It forms part of a wider study of the long-term demographic relationships between Australia’s rapidly growing regional cities and their surrounding functional regions. Of particular interest is the question of what effect the accelerating concentration of population and economic activity into a given regional city will have for the longer term demographic sustainability of its functional region as a whole. Taking the case of Port Lincoln, regional capital of most of South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula, it examines the nature of change in the functional region over the period 1947–2011, and investigates the forces feeding, and partly counteracting, the population concentration process, informed by concepts of evolutionary economic geography. In particular it traces the demographic impact (particularly differential migration and ageing trends) of exogenous shocks to the region’s essentially primary productive economic base during the period of major change from 1981 to 2011.     

Tidal Habitats Support Large Numbers of Invasive Blue Catfish in a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary

The introduction of a non-native freshwater fish, blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus, in tributaries of Chesapeake Bay resulted in the establishment of fisheries and in the expansion of the population into brackish habitats. Blue catfish are an invasive species in the Chesapeake Bay region, and efforts are underway to limit their impacts on native communities. Key characteristics of the population (population size, survival rates) are unknown, but such knowledge is useful in understanding the impact of blue catfish in estuarine systems. We estimated population size and survival rates of blue catfish in tidal habitats of the James River subestuary. We tagged 34,252 blue catfish during July–August 2012 and 2013; information from live recaptures (n = 1177) and dead recoveries (n = 279) were used to estimate annual survival rates and population size using Barker’s Model in a Robust Design and allowing for heterogeneity in detection probabilities. The blue catfish population in the 12-km study area was estimated to be 1.6 million fish in 2013 (95% confidence interval [CI] adjusted for overdispersion: 926,307–2,914,208 fish). Annual apparent survival rate estimates were low: 0.16 (95% CI 0.10–0.24) in 2012–2013 and 0.44 (95% CI 0.31–0.58) in 2013–2014 and represent losses from the population through mortality, permanent emigration, or both. The tagged fish included individuals that were large enough to exhibit piscivory and represented size classes that are likely to colonize estuarine habitats. The large population size that we estimated was unexpected for a freshwater fish in tidal habitats and highlights the need to effectively manage such species.     

Pattern,style and timing of British–Irish Ice Sheet advance and retreat over the last 45 000 years: evidence from NW Scotland and the adjacent continental shelf

Predicting the future response of ice sheets to climate warming and rising global sea level is important but difficult. This is especially so when fast-flowing glaciers or ice streams, buffered by ice shelves, are grounded on beds below sea level. What happens when these ice shelves are removed? And how do the ice stream and the surrounding ice sheet respond to the abruptly altered boundary conditions? To address these questions and others we present new geological, geomorphological, geophysical and geochronological data from the ice-stream-dominated NW sector of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The study area covers around 45 000 km² of NW Scotland and the surrounding continental shelf. Alongside seabed geomorphological mapping and Quaternary sediment analysis, we use a suite of over 100 new absolute ages (including cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages, optically stimulated luminescence ages and radiocarbon dates) collected from onshore and offshore, to build a sector-wide ice-sheet reconstruction combining all available evidence with Bayesian chronosequence modelling. Using this information we present a detailed assessment of ice-sheet advance/retreat history, and the glaciological connections between different areas of the NW BIIS sector, at different times during the last glacial cycle. The results show a highly dynamic, partly marine, partly terrestrial, ice-sheet sector undergoing large size variations in response to sub-millennial-scale climatic (Dansgaard–Oeschger) cycles over the last 45 000 years. Superimposed on these trends we identify internally driven instabilities, operating at higher frequency, conditioned by local topographic factors, tidewater dynamics and glaciological feedbacks during deglaciation. Specifically, our new evidence indicates extensive marine-terminating ice-sheet glaciation of the NW BIIS sector during Greenland Stadials 12 to 9 – prior to the main ‘Late Weichselian’ ice-sheet glaciation. After a period of restricted glaciation, in Greenland Interstadials 8 to 6, we find good evidence for rapid renewed ice-sheet build-up in NW Scotland, with the Minch ice-stream terminus reaching the continental shelf edge in Greenland Stadial 5, perhaps only briefly. Deglaciation of the NW sector took place in numerous stages. Several grounding-zone wedges and moraines on the mid- and inner continental shelf attest to significant stabilizations of the ice-sheet grounding line, or ice margin, during overall retreat in Greenland Stadials 3 and 2, and to the development of ice shelves. NW Lewis was the first substantial present-day land area to deglaciate, in the first half of Greenland Stadial 3 at a time of globally reduced sea-level c. 26 kabp , followed by Cape Wrath at c. 24 kabp. The topographic confinement of the Minch straits probably promoted ice-shelf development in early Greenland Stadial 2, providing the ice stream with additional support and buffering it somewhat from external drivers. However, c. 20–19 kabp , as the grounding-line migrated into shoreward deepening water, coinciding with a marked change in marine geology and bed strength, the ice stream became unstable. We find that, once underway, grounding-line retreat proceeded in an uninterrupted fashion with the rapid loss of fronting ice shelves – first in the west, then the east troughs – before eventual glacier stabilization at fjord mouths in NW Scotland by ~17 kabp. Around the same time, ~19–17 kabp , ice-sheet lobes readvanced into the East Minch – possibly a glaciological response to the marine-instability-triggered loss of adjacent ice stream (and/or ice shelf) support in the Minch trough. An independent ice cap on Lewis also experienced margin oscillations during mid-Greenland Stadial 2, with an ice-accumulation centre in West Lewis existing into the latter part of Heinrich Stadial 1. Final ice-sheet deglaciation of NW mainland Scotland was punctuated by at least one other coherent readvance at c. 15.5 kabp , before significant ice-mass losses thereafter. At the glacial termination, c. 14.5 kabp , glaciers fed outwash sediment to now-abandoned coastal deltas in NW mainland Scotland around the time of global Meltwater Pulse 1A. Overall, this work on the BIIS NW sector reconstructs a highly dynamic ice-sheet oscillating in extent and volume for much of the last 45 000 years. Periods of expansive ice-sheet glaciation dominated by ice-streaming were interspersed with periods of much more restricted ice-cap or tidewater/fjordic glaciation. Finally, this work indicates that the role of ice streams in ice-sheet evolution is complex but mechanistically important throughout the lifetime of an ice sheet – with ice streams contributing to the regulation of ice-sheet health but also to the acceleration of ice-sheet demise via marine ice-sheet instabilities.     

Inter‐laboratory Characterisation of Apatite Reference Materials for Chlorine Isotope Analysis

Here we report on a set of six apatite reference materials (chlorapatites MGMH#133648, TUBAF#38 and fluorapatites MGMH#128441A, TUBAF#37, 40, 50) which we have characterised for their chlorine isotope ratios; these RMs span a range of Cl mass fractions within the apatite Ca₁₀(PO₄)₆(F,Cl,OH)₂ solid solution series. Numerous apatite specimens, obtained from mineralogical collections, were initially screened for ³⁷Cl/³⁵Cl homogeneity using SIMS followed by δ³⁷Cl characterisation by gas source mass spectrometry using both dual‐inlet and continuous‐flow modes. We also report major and key trace element compositions as determined by EPMA. The repeatability of our SIMS results was better than ± 0.10‰ (1s) for the five samples with > 0.5 % m/m Cl and ± 0.19‰ (1s) for the low Cl abundance material (0.27% m/m). We also observed a small, but significant crystal orientation effect of 0.38‰ between the mean ³⁷Cl/³⁵Cl ratios measured on three oriented apatite fragments. Furthermore, the results of GS‐IRMS analyses show small but systematic offset of δ³⁷Cl_SMOC values between the three laboratories. Nonetheless, all studied samples have comparable chlorine isotope compositions, with mean 10³δ³⁷Cl_SMOC values between +0.09 and +0.42 and in all cases with 1s ≤ ± 0.25.     

Representation and participation in formulating Nepal’s REDD+ approach

ABSTRACT

REDD+ is an international policy aimed at incentivizing forest conservation and management and improving forest governance. In this article, we interrogate how newly articulated REDD+ governance processes established to guide the formulation of Nepal’s REDD+ approach address issues of participation for different social groups. Specifically, we analyse available forums of participation for different social groups, as well as the nature of their representation and degree of participation during the country’s REDD+ preparedness phase. We find that spaces for participation and decision-making in REDD+ have been to date defined and dominated by government actors and influential civil society groups, whereas the influence of other actors, particularly marginalized groups such as Dalits and women’s organizations, have remained limited. REDD+ has also resulted in a reduction of influence for some hitherto powerful actors (e.g. community forestry activists) and constrained their critical voice. These governance weaknesses related to misrepresentation and uneven power relations in Nepal cast doubt on the extent to which procedural justice has been promoted through REDD+ and imply that implementation may, as a consequence, lack the required social legitimacy and support. We discuss possible ways to address these shortcomings, such as granting greater prominence to neglected civil society forums within the REDD+ process, allowing for an increase in their influence on policy design, enhancing capacity and leadership of marginalized groups and institutionalizing participation through continued forest governance reform.

Key policy insights

• Participation is a critical asset in public policy design.

• Ensuring wide and meaningful participation can enhance policy legitimacy and thus its endorsement and potential effective implementation.

• Fostering inclusive processes through dedicated forums such as multi-stakeholder groups can help overcome power dynamics.

• While REDD+ is open to participation by different actors through a variety of formal means, many countries lack a clear framework for participation in national policy processes.

• Nepal’s experience with representation and participation of non-state actors in its REDD+ preparedness programme provides useful insights for similar social and policy contexts.

     

Evaluation of policy options for the live reef food fish trade in the province of Palawan,Western Philippines

The live reef food fish (LRFF) trade has an estimated annual retail value of US$1 billion in the Asia-Pacific region and at least US$30 million in the Philippines. Palawan Province is the trade's center accounting for as much as 55% of the commodity's total export. Concern about the LRFF trade has caused the Palawan Provincial government to take action to regulate the trade. Four key policy options to address the short-term policy objective of developing a sustainable LRFF industry through the reduction of threats associated with destructive fishing and overfishing were proposed. These four policy options and associated analyses were presented to stakeholders at three separate policy consultations. The stakeholders reached a consensus that a regulated LRFF trade was the most sensible option. As a result, the Provincial Government of Palawan took action to enact “The Palawan Live Reef Fish Ordinance of 2006”, which provides for the sustainable and integrated regulation of the LRFF industry. This provincial ordinance will assist in crafting a national policy for the LRFF trade and may also be useful in revising the 1998 Philippine Fisheries Code. The key challenge is how to translate the ordinance provisions into effective on-the-ground actions.     

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 1. Small catchment water balance model

A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers. The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.     

Photobleaching of chromophoric dissolved organic matter in natural waters: kinetics and modeling

The effects of monochromatic and polychromatic UV and visible (VIS) radiation on the optical properties (absorption and fluorescence) of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were examined for a Suwannee River fulvic acid (SRFA) standard and for water from the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays. The primary (direct) loss of absorption and fluorescence occurred at the irradiation wavelength(s), with smaller secondary (indirect) losses occurring outside the irradiation wavelength(s). The efficiency of both direct and indirect photobleaching decreased monotonically with increasing wavelength. Exposure to polychromatic light increased the CDOM absorption spectral slope (S), consistent with previous field measurements. An analysis of the monochromatic photobleaching kinetics argues that a model based on a simple superposition of multiple chromophores undergoing independent photobleaching cannot apply; this conclusion further implies that the absorption spectrum of CDOM cannot arise solely from a simple superposition of the spectra of numerous independent chromophores. The kinetics of CDOM absorption loss with the monochromatic irradiation were employed to create a simple, heuristic model of photobleaching. This model allowed us to examine the importance of the indirect photobleaching losses in determining the overall photobleaching rates as well as to model the photobleaching of natural waters under polychromatic light fields. Application of this model to natural waters closely predicted the change in the CDOM spectral shape caused by photodegradation. The time scale of this process was consistent with field observations acquired during the summertime for coastal waters in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB). The results indicate that the ratio of the photodegradation depth to the mixed layer depth is a key parameter controlling the rate of the photobleaching in surface waters.