Why delaying emission reductions is a gamble

In the debate on the timing of greenhouse gas emissions reductions the aspect of political feasibility has often been missing. We introduce this aspect and show that, if we decide to delay emissions reductions, and the environmental effectiveness of global mitigation efforts is to remain the same in terms of temperature change, we must be willing and able to undertake much more substantial emission reductions than with early action. Even under conservative assumptions on initial political feasibility (maximum 0.25% year-on-year reductions), a 20-year delay means that we must reduce emissions at an annual rate that is 5 to 11 times greater than with early climate action. Our capacity for technological progress, political change and the inertia of the socio-economic system gives us reason to be concerned about our ability to achieve such higher rates of emission reductions. If we are not able to achieve such higher rates, delaying action will inevitably result in higher temperatures in 2100. Unless we are willing to accept higher temperatures, choosing to delay climate action is a gamble that political feasibility will increase over time as a result of the delay itself.     

An integrated lake-catchment approach for determining sediment source changes at Aqualate Mere,Central England

This paper raises fundamental questions about the sole use of paleolimnological techniques to identify sediment sources and develop catchment management plans. The concept of an integrated lake: catchment framework was established 30 years ago, yet paleolimnologists occasionally fail to appreciate the dynamics of the contributing catchment. This is especially critical when the predominant source of sediment accumulating in a lake is allochthonous. In this paper we argue that a detailed appraisal of catchment sources and investigation of historical documentary evidence is needed to identify and evaluate the relative significance of sediment sources. We used such an approach at Aqualate Mere, Shropshire, UK. Mineral magnetic and radionculide signatures of potential catchment sources and accumulating lake sediments were compared in an attempt to match the sources to sediments deposited in the Mere. Dated lake sediments indicate there has been an increase in sedimentation rate and the relative amount of minerogenic material delivered to the Mere over the last 200 years. In contrast to a previous study at the same site, there is no evidence to attribute this increase to an overspill from a nearby canal. Other catchment disturbances include landscaping in parkland surrounding the Mere in the early nineteenth century and drainage systems installed to improve catchment agriculture over the last ca. 150 years. Both activities may explain the change in sedimentation rates and types, independent of the hypothesized canal origin. Although our results exclude the canal as a major sediment source, identifying the contribution of other potential catchment sources remains problematic. ¹³⁷Cs inventories for the lake are similar to those recorded at a local reference site, suggesting little influx of ¹³⁷Cs-bearing topsoil, yet ¹³⁷Cs activities remain high in the upper 20–30 cm of the lake sediment profile, indicating a topsoil origin. Combined radionuclide and mineral magnetic signatures proved to be relatively poor discriminators of potential sources, and the high atmospheric pollution load from the West Midland conurbation has probably altered recent lake sediment signatures. Although further research is required to identify the origins of recent (last ca. 200 years) minerogenic sediment inputs to the Mere, we suggest that the combined lake: catchment approach offers a more rigorous method for understanding the impact of catchment disturbance than analysis of the paleolimnological record alone.     

Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.     

Structural controls and mechanisms of diffusion in natural silicate melts

The diffusion properties of Na, Cs, Ba, Fe and Eu ions have been determined experimentally for a pantellerite melt and of these ions plus Li, Mn and Co in pitchstone melt, using the radiotracer residual-activity method, and narrow platinum capillaries, over the temperature range 1,200–1,400° C. In addition, Eu diffusion in a basaltic and an andesitic melt was determined. Diffusion of all cations follows an Arrhenius relationship, activation energy values being high for diffusion in the pantellerite melt (e.g. Eu: 100 kcal mol^–1) except in the case of Na (24.3 kcal mol^–1). Activation energies of diffusion in the pitchstone melt are similar to values recorded earlier for andesitic and basaltic melts.The new data are used, along with previously published data for diffusion in other composition melts, to examine the compositional and structural controls on diffusion. The range of diffusivities shows a marked change with melt composition; over two orders of magnitude for a basaltic melt, and nearly four orders for a pantellerite melt (both at 1,300° C). Diffusivity of all cations (except Li and Na) correlates positively with the proportion of network modifying cations. In the case of Li and Na the correlation is negative but the diffusivity of these ions correlates positively with the proportion of Na or of Na + K ions in the bulk melt. Diffusion behaviour in the pantellerite melt departs from the relationships shown by the data for other melt compositions, which could be partly explained by trivalent ions (such as Fe) occupying network forming positions. The diffusivity of alkali metal ions is strongly dependent on ionic radius, but this is not the case with the divalent and trivalent ions; diffusivity of these ions remains relatively constant with change in radius but decreases with increase in ionic charge.A compensation diagram shows four distinct but parallel trends for the majority of the cations in four melt types but the data for Li and Na plot on a separate trend. This and the other relationships are used to elucidate possible mechanisms of diffusion. Exchange mechanisms appear to be common, with the preservation of local charge balance. Li and Na diffuse by a distinct mechanism which involves exchange of similar or identical ions. The diffusion behaviour of the smaller alkali metal ions is sufficiently distinct from all other cations to indicate that diffusion could be an important factor in the geochemical fractionation of the alkali elements.s     

Measuring Concentrated Poverty in a Global Metropolis: Lessons from Los Angeles∗

The traditional definition of concentrated poverty—40 percent of a census tract population living below the federal poverty threshold—is problematic in light of burgeoning working poor populations, increasing inner-suburban poverty, and problems with the federal poverty threshold itself. This article questions the meaning of concentrated poverty as traditionally defined and measured through an analysis of social and built environments in selected Los Angeles area communities that meet the 40 percent threshold. Such neighborhoods face significant challenges, yet do not conform to stereotypes of concentrated poverty areas. Findings indicate the need for measures that recognize the increasingly heterogeneous forms and landscapes of poverty in globalizing urban regions.