Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The age and thermal history of Cerro Rico de Potosi, Bolivia

 Cerro Rico de Potosi, Bolivia, is the world’s largest silver deposit and has been mined since the sixteenth century for silver, and for tin and zinc during the twentieth century, together with by-product copper and lead. The deposit consists primarily of veins that cut an altered igneous body that we interpret to be a dacitic volcanic dome and its underlying tuff ring and explosion breccia. The deposit is compositionally and thermally zoned, having a core of cassiterite, wolframite, bismuthinite, and arsenopyrite surrounded by a peripheral, lower-temperature mineral assemblage consisting principally of sphalerite, galena, lead sulfosalt, and silver minerals. The low-temperature assemblage also was superimposed on the high-temperature assemblage in response to cooling of the main hydrothermal system. Both the dacite dome and the ore fluids were derived from a larger magmatic/hydrothermal source at depth. The dome was repeatedly fractured by recurrent movement on the fault system that guided its initial emplacement. The dome was extruded at 13.8±0.2 Ma (2σ), based on U-Th-Pb dating of zircon. Mineralization and alteration occurred within about 0.3 my of dome emplacement, as indicated by a ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar date of 13.76±0.10 Ma (1σ) for sericite from the pervasive quartz-sericite-pyrite alteration associated with the main-stage, high-temperature, mineralization. The last thermal event able to reset zircon fission tracks occurred no later than 12.5±1.1 Ma (1σ), as indicated by fission-tract dating. Minor sericite, and magmatic-steam alunite veins, were episodically formed around 11 Ma and between 8.3 and 5.7 Ma; the younger episodes occurring at the time of extensional fracturing at Cerro Rico and widespread volcanism in the adjacent Los Frailes volcanic field. None of these younger events appear to be significant thermal/mineralizing events; the exceptionally flat thermal release pattern of ³⁹Ar from sericite and the results of the fission-tract dating of zircon show that none of the younger events was hot enough, and lasted long enough, to cause significant loss of Ar or annealing of zircon fission tracks. U-Th-Pb dating of zircon cores indicates a Precambrian progenitor for some zircons, and REE analyses of dated samples of hydrothermally altered dacite show the presence of a prominent positive Eu anomaly, which constrains interpretations of the origin and evolution of the magmatic/hydrothermal system. Received: 14 October 1995/Accepted: 29 January 1996     

A Comparison of Public Lands and Farmlands for Grassland Bird Conservation

Midwestern states have invested extensively in grasslands for wildlife conservation, yet these public lands make up a minority of grassland habitat. How effective are public grasslands, relative to private lands, for conserving native songbird populations? I compare private and public lands in southern Minnesota using bird survey data from Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) fields and public lands and assessing fragmentation in a GIS. Bird abundance and diversity were greater on CRP lands. Vegetation composition, field isolation, and field size appear to explain differences in bird counts. Land cover data show that grassland habitat on public lands is scarce and widely scattered. The CRP provides more, and here better, habitat for grassland birds. Funding partly explains this disparity. Trends in farm set‐aside program rules and distribution, which can be vary greatly over time, will strongly influence the success or failure of biodiversity conservation in this region.     

Do southern Appalachian Mountain summer stream temperatures respond to removal of understory rhododendron thickets?

Dense understory thickets of the native evergreen shrub Rhododendron maximum expanded initially following elimination of American chestnut by the chestnut blight, and later in response to loss of the eastern hemlock due to hemlock woolly adelgid invasion. Rhododendron thickets often blanket streams and their riparian zones, creating cool, low-light microclimates. To determine the effect of such understory thickets on summer stream temperatures, we removed riparian rhododendron understory on 300 m reaches of two southern Appalachian Mountain headwater streams, while leaving two 300 m reference reaches undisturbed. Overhead canopy was left intact in all four streams, but all streams were selected to have a significant component of dead or dying eastern hemlock in the overstory, creating time-varying canopy gaps throughout the reach. We continuously monitored temperatures upstream, within and downstream of treatment and reference reaches. Temperatures were monitored in all four streams in the summer before treatments were imposed (2014), and for two summers following treatment (2015, 2016). Temperatures varied significantly across and within streams prior to treatment and across years for the reference streams. After rhododendron removal, increases in summer stream temperatures were observed at some locations within the treatment reaches, but these increases did not persist downstream and varied by watershed, sensor, and year. Significant increases in daily maxima in treatment reaches ranged from 0.9 to 2.6°C. Overhead canopy provided enough shade to prevent rhododendron removal from increasing summer temperatures to levels deleterious to native cold-water fauna (average summer temperatures remained below 16°C), and local temperature effects were not persistent.     

Improved algorithms for generalized finite element simulations of three-dimensional hydraulic fracture propagation

This paper reports improvements to algorithms for the simulation of 3-D hydraulic fracturing with the Generalized Finite Element Method (GFEM). Three optimizations are presented and analyzed. First, an improved initial guess based on solving a 3-D elastic problem with the pressure from the previous step is shown to decrease the number of Newton iterations and increase robustness. Second, an improved methodology to find the time step that leads to fracture propagation is proposed and shown to decrease significantly the number of iterations. Third, reduced computational cost is observed by properly recycling the linear part of the coupled stiffness matrix. Two representative examples are used to analyze these improvements. Additionally, a methodology to include the leak-off term is presented and verified against asymptotic analytical solutions. Conservation of mass is shown to be well satisfied in all examples.     

Palynology of Triassic–Jurassic boundary sections in northern Switzerland

A first palynostratigraphic scheme of Upper Triassic deposits in northern Switzerland was established based on spore-pollen associations and dinoflagellate cyst records from the upper part of the Upper Triassic Klettgau Formation and the lower part of the Lower Jurassic Staffelegg Formation. Drill cores from the Adlerberg region (Basel Tabular Jura) and from Weiach (northern part of Canton Zurich) as well as from an outcrop at the Chilchzimmersattel (Basel Folded Jura) were studied and five informal palynological associations are distinguished. These palynological associations correlate with palynological association of the Central European Epicontinental Basin and the Tethyan realm and provide a stratigraphic framework for the uppermost Triassic sediments in northern Switzerland. Throughout the uppermost Triassic to Jurassic palynological succession a remarkable prominence of Classopollis spp. is observed. Besides Classopollis spp. the three Rhaetian palynological associations A to C from the Upper Triassic Belchen Member include typical Rhaetian spore-pollen and dinoflagellate taxa (e.g., Rhaetipollis germanicus, Geopollis zwolinskae, Rhaetogonyaulax rhaetica, and Dapcodinium priscum). Association B differs from association A in a higher relative abundance of the sporomorph taxa Perinopollenites spp. and the consistent occurrence of Granuloperculatipollis rudis and Ricciisporites tuberculatus. Spore diversity is highest in the late Rhaetian palynological association C and includes Polypodiisporites polymicroforatus. A Rhaetian age for the Belchen Member is confirmed by palynological associations A–C, but there is no record of the latest Rhaetian and the earliest Jurassic. In contrast to the Rhaetian palynological associations the Early Jurassic associations W and D include Pinuspollenites spp., Trachysporites fuscus (in association W), and Ischyosporites variegatus. In the view of the end-Triassic mass extinction and contemporaneous environmental changes the described palynofloral succession represents the pre-extinction phase (associations A and B) including a distinct transgression, the extinction phase (association C) associated with a regression, and the post-extinction phase (association W).     

Geochemistry and distribution of sediments in the East Indian shelf,SW Bay of Bengal: implications on weathering,transport and depositional environment

Forty-two substrate sediment samples and three cores procured from the shelf region between Chennai and Cuddalore were analyzed to understand the spatial and vertical sediment distribution. Samples subjected to grain size, bulk and clay mineralogical analyses, REE and trace element geochemistry yielded interesting results about the sediment characteristics with respect to the modern day environment. The present study revealed that the study area is characterized by high energy environment marked by predominant composition of medium sand. Results confirmed the evidence of more illite than kaolinite, smectite, and chlorite in the clay mineral assemblage indicating a terrigenous source. Geochemical data also revealed that the enrichment of light rare earth elements (LREE) in the sediments is due to continental source of Precambrian times. High feldspar content in the sediments which is emphasized by bulk mineralogical data displayed positive Eu anomaly. By using the paleoredox index, the area of interest is considered to have undergone no major changes in its depositional settings.