Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System

The Earth's climate system is highly nonlinear: inputs and outputs are not proportional, change is often episodic and abrupt, rather than slow and gradual, and multiple equilibria are the norm. While this is widely accepted, there is a relatively poor understanding of the different types of nonlinearities, how they manifest under various conditions, and whether they reflect a climate system driven by astronomical forcings, by internal feedbacks, or by a combination of both. In this paper, after a brief tutorial on the basics of climate nonlinearity, we provide a number of illustrative examples and highlight key mechanisms that give rise to nonlinear behavior, address scale and methodological issues, suggest a robust alternative to prediction that is based on using integrated assessments within the framework of vulnerability studies and, lastly, recommend a number of research priorities and the establishment of education programs in Earth Systems Science. It is imperative that the Earth's climate system research community embraces this nonlinear paradigm if we are to move forward in the assessment of the human influence on climate.     

Urban Thermodynamic Island in a Coastal City Analysed from an Optimized Surface Network

Within the framework of ESCOMPTE, a French experiment performed in June and July 2001 in the south-east of France to study the photo-oxidant pollution at the regional scale, the urban boundary layer (UBL) program focused on the study of the urban atmosphere over the coastal city of Marseille. A methodology developed to optimize a network of 20 stations measuring air temperature and moisture over the city is presented. It is based on the analysis of a numerical simulation, performed with the non-hydrostatic, mesoscale Meso-NH model, run with four nested-grids down to a horizontal resolution of 250 m over the city and including a specific parametrization for the urban surface energy balance. A three-day period was modelled and evaluated against data collected during the preparatory phase for the project in summer 2000. The simulated thermodynamic surface fields were analysed using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition in order to determine the optimal network configuration designed to capture the dominant characteristics of the fields. It is the first attempt of application of this kind of methodology to the field of urban meteorology. The network, of 20 temperature and moisture sensors, was implemented during the UBL-ESCOMPTE experiment and continuously recorded data from 12 June to 14 July 2001. The measurements were analysed in order to assess the urban thermodynamic island spatio-temporal structure, also using EOF decomposition. During nighttime, the influence of urbanization on temperature is clear the field is characterized by concentric thermo-pleths around the old core of the city, which is the warmest area of the domain. The moisture field is more influenced by proximity to the sea and airflow patterns. During the day, the sea breeze often moves from west or south-west and consequently the spatial pattern for both parameters is characterized by a gradient perpendicular to the shoreline. Finally, in order to assess the methodology adopted, the spatial structures extracted from the simulation of the 2000 preparatory campaign and observations gathered in 2001 have been compared. They are highly correlated, which is a relevant validation of the methodology proposed. The relations between these spatial structures and geographical characteristics of the site have also been studied. High correlations between temperature spatial structure during nighttime and urban cover fraction or street aspect ratio are observed and simulated. For temperature during daytime or moisture during both daytime and nighttime these geographical factors are not correlated with thermodynamic fields spatial structures.     

Changes in diatom, pollen, and chironomid assemblages in response to a recent volcanic event in Lake Galletué (Chilean Andes)

Several lakes in Chile are near important volcanic areas where eruption impacts can limit the quality of lacustrine sediments for reconstructing past environmental changes. In this study, we report changes in diatoms, pollen, and chironomids assemblages after a tephra deposition in Lake Galletué (Chilean Andes). A sediment core obtained from Lake Galletué (40 m water depth) was sliced in 1 cm intervals and subsamples were taken to analyze each proxy. ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs activities were measured to obtain the geochronology and mineralogical analyses were performed to determine the mineral composition of the tephra. Diatom species composition and productivity were modified when the lake received the tephra; Aulacoseira granulata decreased and was later replaced by Cyclotella af. glomerata. After the tephra input, Aulacoseira granulata abundance increased to pre-disturbance levels and Cyclotella af. glomerata decreased. These changes seem to suggest a momentary increase in lake nutrient levels after the tephra deposition. Chironomid assemblages also decreased in head capsules just after the tephra deposition, but the most important change was the replacement of Ablabesmyia by Parakiefferiella, probably due to the sedimentological changes produced by the input of coarse tephra grains. Furthermore, unlike other studies, chironomid assemblages in Lake Galletué did not show a decrease drastically in diversity within the tephra layer. The pollen analysis indicated that, prior to the volcanic event, the vegetal community was dominated by Nothofagus sp., Araucaria araucana, and Blechnum sp.-type. After the tephra deposition, the same taxa are dominant, indicating that the volcanic event seems not produce changes in the vegetation. Nevertheless, within the tephra layer it is possible to see an increase in Poaceae, which represent – due to the percolation process – the effect of eruption on the vegetation. According to our results, diatoms were the most sensitive proxy for describing the changes produced by tephra deposition into the aquatic ecosystem and, despite the noticeable changes in its sedimentological properties; the lake seems to have a high resilience capacity, allowing it to return to pre-tephra input conditions.     

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.

     

Temporal variability of contemporary floodplain sedimentation in the Rhine–Meuse delta,The Netherlands

It is often believed that extreme but infrequent events are most important in the development of landforms. When evaluating the overall effect of large floods on floodplain sedimentation, quantitative measurements of both high- and low-magnitude events should be considered. To analyse the role of flood magnitude on floodplain sedimentation, we measured overbank sedimentation during floods of different magnitude and duration. The measurements were carried out on two embanked floodplain sections along the rivers Rhine and Meuse in The Netherlands, using sediment traps made of artificial grass. The results showed an increase in total sediment accumulation with flood magnitude, mainly caused by enhanced accumulation of sand. At low floodplain sections the increase in sediment deposition was smaller than expected from the strong increase in suspended sediment transport in the river. Spatial variability in sediment accumulation was found to depend both on flood magnitude and duration. Deposition of sand on natural levees mainly takes place during high-magnitude floods, whilst low floods and slowly receding floods are important for the deposition of silt and clay in low-lying areas, at greater distance from the main channel. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development and Intercomparison of Condensed Isoprene Oxidation Mechanisms for Global Atmospheric Modeling

A new condensed isoprene oxidation mechanism forglobal atmospheric modeling (MIM) was derived from ahighly detailed master chemical mechanism (MCM). In abox model intercomparison covering a wide range ofboundary layer conditions the MIM was compared withthe MCM and with five other condensed mechanisms, someof which have already been used in global modelingstudies of nonmethane hydrocarbon chemistry. Theresults of MCM and MIM were generally in goodagreement, but the other tested mechanisms exhibitedsubstantial differences relative to the MCM as well asrelative to each other. Different formation yields,reactivities and degradation pathways of organicnitrates formed in the course of isoprene oxidationwere identified as a major reason for the deviations.The relevance of the box model results for chemistrytransport models is discussed, and the need for avalidated reference mechanism and for an improvedrepresentation of isoprene chemistry in global modelsis pointed out.     

Dynamics and sources of suspended particulate organic matter in the Marennes-Oléron oyster farming bay: Insights from stable isotopes and microalgae ecology

The aim of this study was to distinguish between sources of the complex variety of Marennes-Oléron Bay suspended particulate organic matter (SPOM) contributing to the tropho-dynamics of the Marennes-Oléron oyster farming bay. Basic biomarkers (Chl a, C/N and POC/Chl a ratios), carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes from SPOM were analyzed and the microalgae community was characterized. The sampling strategy was bimonthly from March 2002 to December 2003; samples were taken from an intertidal mudflat. Four main sources contributed to the SPOM pool: terrigenous input from rivers, neritic phytoplankton, resuspended microphytobenthos and periodic inputs from intertidal Zostera noltii meadows. Seasonal fluctuations were observed in both years of the study period: (1) SPOM collected in the spring of 2002 (δ¹³C = −25‰ to −23‰) was mainly composed of fresh estuarine inputs; (2) SPOM from the summer and fall of 2002 and 2003 was predominantly neritic phytoplankton (δ¹³C = − 22‰ to −19‰); (3) SPOM from the winter of 2002, spring of 2003 and winter of 2003 (δ¹³C = −21 to −23‰) was composed of a mixture of decayed terrigenous river inputs and pelagic phytoplankton, which was predominantly resuspended microphytobenthos. In the summer of 2003—the warmest summer on record in southern France and Europe—SPOM was particularly enriched for ¹³C, with δ¹³C values ranging from −14‰ to −12‰. Pulses in δ¹³C values, indicative of ¹³C-enriched decaying materials, extended into the fall. These were attributed to benthic intertidal inputs, including both resuspended microphytobenthos and Z. noltii detritus. Changes in SPOM sources in Marennes-Oléron Bay may lead to differences in the quality of the trophic environment available for reared oysters.     

Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State

Pacific Northwest (PNW) hydrology is particularly sensitive to changes in climate because snowmelt dominates seasonal runoff, and temperature changes impact the rain/snow balance. Based on results from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), we updated previous studies of implications of climate change on PNW hydrology. PNW 21st century hydrology was simulated using 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios over Washington and the greater Columbia River watershed, with additional focus on the Yakima River watershed and the Puget Sound which are particularly sensitive to climate change. We evaluated projected changes in snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow for A1B and B1 emissions scenarios for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s. April 1 SWE is projected to decrease by approximately 38–46% by the 2040s (compared with the mean over water years 1917–2006), based on composite scenarios of B1 and A1B, respectively, which represent average effects of all climate models. In three relatively warm transient watersheds west of the Cascade crest, April 1 SWE is projected to almost completely disappear by the 2080s. By the 2080s, seasonal streamflow timing will shift significantly in both snowmelt dominant and rain–snow mixed watersheds. Annual runoff across the State is projected to increase by 2–3% by the 2040s; these changes are mainly driven by projected increases in winter precipitation.     

Elemental characterization and source identification of PM2.5 using Positive Matrix Factorization: The Malraux road tunnel, Nice, France

This work was dedicated to the characterization of the elemental composition of atmospheric particles associated with urban traffic. PM_2.5 sampling campaigns were conducted in an urban road tunnel within the area of Nice: the Malraux tunnel. Samples were analyzed by ICP-MS-DRC for the determination of 16 metallic trace elements: Na, Ti, V, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Sr, Rb, Cd, Sn, Sb and Pb. An in depth study was carried out on the PM_2.5 dataset collected with specific characterisation tools (enrichment factors, elemental ratio) and a receptor model: the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). The model showed that different profiles of emission could influence the ambient air of the tunnel and their contribution to the metal concentration in the air. Elemental fingerprints were used to attribute to each profile a specific emission source linked to road traffic. Finally, results showed that road traffic emissions could be divided into 3 main “subcategory” sources of emission: “soil resuspension” by automobile movement, “vehicular wear” and “fuel combustion”.