Problems of modeling climate and climate change

The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible.     

Current-influenced depositional provinces, continental margin off Cape Hatteras, identified by petrologic method

Analyses of DSRV “Alvin” core samples on the Cape Hatteras margin indicate major textural and compositional changes at depths of about 1000 and well below 2500 m. The distribution patterns of petrologic parameters correlate well with water mass flow and suspended-sediment plumes measured on this margin by other workers. Our study also shows: (a) vigorous erosion and sediment transport at depths of less than 400 m resulting from the NE-trending Gulf Stream flow; (b) deposition, largely planktonic-rich sediment released from the Gulf Stream, on the upper- to mid-slope, to depths of about 800–1200 m; (c) winnowing, resuspension and deposition induced by periodically intensified slope currents on the mid-slope to uppermost rise, between about 1000 and 2500 m; and (d) prevailing deposition on the upper rise proper (below 2500 m), from transport by the SW-trending Western Boundary Undercurrent. Sediments moved by bottom currents have altered the composition and distribution patterns of material transported downslope by offshelf spillover; this mixing of gravity-emplaced and bottom-current-transported sediment obscures depositional boundaries. Moreover, reworking of the seafloor by benthic organisms alters physical properties and changes erodability of surficial sediments by bottom currents. Measurement of current flow above the seafloor and direct observation of the bottom are insufficient to delineate surficial sediment boundaries. Detailed petrologic analyses are needed to recognize the long-term signature of processes and define depositional provinces.     

Evaluation of long-term extreme response statistics of jack-up platforms

This paper is concerned with the models appropriate for the dynamic assessment of jack-ups, concentrating particularly on the long-term response due to random ocean waves and on work-hardening plasticity models used for spud-can response. A methodology for scaling of short-term statistics, calculated using a Constrained NewWave technique, is shown in a numerical experiment for an example jack-up and central North Sea location. The difference in long-term extreme response statistics due to various footing assumptions is emphasised. Results for two environmental load conditions are described (one excluding and one including wind and current effects) and the role of sea-state severity in the variation of short-term extreme response statistics is also highlighted.     

Characterizing Observed Environmental Variability With HF Doppler Radar Surface Current Mappers and Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers: Environmental Variability in the Coastal Ocean

A network of high-frequency (HF) radars is deployed along the New Jersey coast providing synoptic current maps across the entire shelf. These data serve a variety of user groups from scientific research to Coast Guard search and rescue. In addition, model forecasts have been shown to improve with surface current assimilation. In all applications, there is a need for better definitions and assessment of the measurement uncertainty. During a summer coastal predictive skill experiment in 2001, an array of in situ current profilers was deployed near two HF radar sites, one long-range and one standard-range system. Comparison statistics were calculated between different vertical bins on the same current profiler, between different current profilers, and between the current profilers and the different HF radars. The velocity difference in the vertical and horizontal directions were then characterized using the observed root-mean-square (rms) differences. We further focused on two cases, one with relatively high vertical variability, and the second with relatively low vertical variability. Observed differences between the top bin of the current profiler and the HF radar were influenced by both system accuracy and the environment. Using the in situ current profilers, the environmental variability over scales based on the HF radar sampling was quantified. HF radar comparisons with the current profilers were on the same order as the observed environmental difference over the same scales, indicating that the environment has a significant influence on the observed differences. Velocity variability in the vertical and horizontal directions both contribute to these differences. When the potential effects of the vertical variability could be minimized, the remaining difference between the current profiler and the HF radar was similar to the measured horizontal velocity difference (~2.5 cm/s) and below the resolution of the raw radial data at the time of the deployment     

Manganese and iron distributions off central California influenced by upwelling and shelf width

In July 2002, a combination of underway mapping and discrete profiles revealed significant along-shore variability in the concentrations of manganese and iron in the vicinity of Monterey Bay, California. Both metals had lower concentrations in surface waters south of Monterey Bay, where the shelf is about 2.5 km wide, than north of Monterey Bay, where the shelf is about 10 km wide. During non-upwelling conditions over the northern broad shelf, dissolvable iron concentrations measured underway in surface waters reached 3.5 nmol L⁻¹ and dissolved manganese reached 25 nmol L⁻¹. In contrast, during non-upwelling conditions over the southern narrow shelf, dissolvable iron concentrations in surface waters were less than 1 nmol L⁻¹ and dissolved manganese concentrations were less than 5 nmol L⁻¹. A pair of vertical profiles at 1000 m water depth collected during an upwelling event showed dissolved manganese concentrations of 10 decreasing to 2 nmol L⁻¹, and dissolvable iron concentrations of 12–20 nmol L⁻¹ in the upper 100 m in the north, compared to 3.5–2 nmol L⁻¹ Mn and 0.6 nmol L⁻¹ Fe in the upper 100 m in the south, suggesting the effect of shelf width influences the chemistry of waters beyond the shelf.These observations are consistent with current understanding of the mechanism of iron supply to coastal upwelling systems: Iron from shelf sediments, predominantly associated with particles greater than 20 μm, is brought to the surface during upwelling conditions. We hypothesize that manganese oxides are brought to the surface with upwelling and are then reduced to dissolved manganese, perhaps by photoreduction, following a lag after upwelling.Greater phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and nutrient drawdown were observed over the broad shelf, consistent with the greater supply of iron. Incubation experiments conducted 20 km offshore in both regions, during a period of wind relaxation, confirm the potential of these sites to become limited by iron. There was no additional growth response when copper, manganese or cobalt was added in addition to iron. The growth response of surface water incubated with bottom sediment (4 nmol L⁻¹ dissolvable Fe) was slightly greater than in control incubations, but less than in the presence of 4 nmol L⁻¹ dissolved iron. This may indicate that dissolvable iron is not as bioavailable as dissolved iron, although the influence of additional inhibitory elements in the sediment cannot be ruled out.     

The Mid-atlantic Ridge (31°S–34°30′S): Temporal and spatial variations of accretionary processes

The ridge located between 31° S and 34°30′S is spreading at a rate of 35 mm yr⁻¹, a transitional velocity between the very slow (≤20 mm yr⁻¹) opening rates of the North Atlantic and Southwest Indian Oceans, and the intermediate rates (60 mm yr⁻¹) of the northern limb of the East Pacific Rise, and the Galapagos and Juan de Fuca Ridges. A synthesis of multi-narrow beam, magnetics and gravity data document that in this area the ridge represents a dynamically evolving system. Here the ridge is partitioned into an ensemble of six distinct segments of variable lengths (12 to 100 km) by two transform faults (first-order discontinuities) and three small offset (< 30 km) discontinuities (second-order discontinuities) that behave non-rigidly creating complex and heterogeneous morphotectonic patterns that are not parallel to flow lines. The offset magnitudes of both the first and second-order discontinuities change in response to differential asymmetric spreading. In addition, along the fossil trace of second-order discontinuities, the lengths of abyssal hills located to either side of a discordant zone are observed to lengthen and shorten creating a saw-toothed pattern. Although the spreading rate remains the same along the length of the ridge studied, the morphology of the spreading segments varies from a deep median valley with characteristics analogous to the rift segments of the North Atlantic to a gently rifted axial bulge that is indistinguishable from the shape and relief of the intermediate rate spreading centers of the East Pacific Rise (i.e., 21°N). Like other carefully surveyed ridge segments at slow and fast rates of accretion, the along-axis profiles of each ridge segment are distinctly convex upwards, and exhibit along-strike changes in relief of 500m to 1500 between the shallowest portion of the segment (approximate center) and the segment ends. Such spatial variations create marked along-axis changes in the morphology and relief of each segment. A relatively low mantle Bouguer anomaly is known to be associated with the ridge segment characterized by a gently rifted axial bulge and is interpreted to indicate the presence of focused mantle upwelling (Kuo and Forsyth, 1988). Moreover, the terrain at the ends of each segment are known to be highly magnetized compared to the centers of each segment (Carbotte et al, 1990). Taken together, these data clearly establish that these profound spatial variations in ridge segment properties between adjoining segments, and along and across each segment, indicate that the upper mantle processes responsible for the formation of this contrasting architecture are not solely related to passive upwelling of the asthenosphere beneath the ridge axis. Rather, there must be differences in the thermal and mechanical structure of the crust and upper mantle between and along the ridge segments to explain these spatial variations in axial topography, crustal structure and magnetization. These results are consistent with the results of investigations from other parts of the ridge and suggest that the emplacement of magma is highly focused along segments and positioned beneath the depth minimum of a given segment. The profound differences between segments indicate that the processes governing the behavior of upwelling mantle are decoupled and the variations in the patterns of axis flanking morphology and rate of accretion indicate that processes controlling upwelling and melt production vary markedly in time as well. At this spreading rate and in this area, the accretionary processes are clearly three-dimensional. In addition, the morphology of a ridge segment is not governed so much by opening rate as by the thermal structure of the mantle which underlies the segment.     

Large-scale vertical hydroacoustic structure of the North Atlantic and its seasonal variability

A classification based on the number and types of large-scale acoustic waveguides is proposed for the mean seasonal profiles of sound speed propagation. A scheme for North Atlantic zoning, using typical curves of the sound speed vertical distribution, is given. The channel axis's position is shown not to depend on the water mass haline properties, being controlled by the temperature field vertical stratification.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.