Models in geography revisited

Agent based models (ABMs) have many applications, and illustrate a rapidly developing field of enquiry, spanning both the physical-mathematical and human-social sciences. ABMs are seen as most appropriate in situations where decisions or actions are distributed around particular locations, and in which structure is viewed as emergent from the interaction between individuals. ABMs may be used either as representational devices, to reproduce the patterns observed or desired in the system of interest, or as foundational tools contributing to the development of social or economic theory. The role and status of models and modelling is itself an instantiation of a wider debate concerning representation and explanation. Today, a case can be made that the nature of explanation and the use of scientific interpretation reflect much less definite and exclusive positions and permit more diverse approaches than hitherto. The underlying proposition of this commentary is, therefore, that the time is right for a positive application of ABMs within the discipline of geography, and for a rediscovery and reappraisal of the richness and depth of insight in the model-building enterprise more generally. First, the context for ABM development and application is set with reference to the agency-structure debate. Second, some aspects of the heritage of models in geography is presented, based upon reviews of two benchmark publications bearing that title. Next, some of the most significant characteristics, uses, potentials and limitations of ABMs, are reviewed. Finally, some constructive ways forward are suggested, as informed by theory and method from the interpretative social sciences.     

Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

Lateral structural variability in zone of eocene island-arc-continent collision,Kamchatka

The lateral variability of structural elements in the collision zone of the Cretaceous-Paleocene Achaivayam-Valagin island arc with the northeastern Asian margin is considered. The similarity and difference of Eocene collision structural elements in the north and the south of Kamchatka are shown. In northern Kamchatka, the continent-arc boundary is traced along the Lesnaya-Vatyn Thrust Fault, which completed its evolution about 45 Ma ago. The thin, near-horizontal allochthon of this thrust, composed of island-arc rocks, overlies the deformed but unmetamorphosed terrigeneous sequences of the Asian margin. The general structure of this suture in the Kamchatka Isthmus and southern Koryakia is comparable with the uppermost subduction zone, where a thin lithospheric wedge overlaps intensely deformed sediments detached from the plunging plate. In southern Kamchatka (Malka Uplift of the Sredinny Range), the arc-continent collision started 55–53 Ma ago with thrusting of island-arc complexes over terrigenous rocks of continental margin. However, the thickness of the allochthon was much greater than in the north. Immediately after this event, both the autochthon and lower part of allochthon were deformed and subsided to a significant depth. This subsidence gave rise to metamorphism of both the autochthon (Kolpakov and Kamchatka groups, Kheivan Formation) and lower allochthon (Andrianovka and Khimka formations). The anomalously fast heating of the crust was most likely related to the ascent of asthenospheric masses due to slab breakoff, when the Eurasian Plate was plunging beneath the Achaivayam-Valagin arc.     

Synchronism in compression of the lithosphere in the central Atlantic and Western Tethys at the Tortonian-Messinian transition

The structure of anomalously uplifted areas in transverse ridges of the Vema, S o Paulo, and Romanche fracture zones is considered. It is concluded that their formation and eventual development in the present-day structure of the central Atlantic bottom proceeded during two stages. The first stage that corresponds to a short period at the Tortonian-Messinian transition (10 Ma ago) was marked by transportation of deep-seated rocks into the upper part of the lithosphere along thrust faults with mass motion in the meridional direction along the axis of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The second stage was characterized by contrasting highamplitude vertical movements from 10 to 3 Ma ago. It is suggested that near-meridional compression in the domains surrounding the Western Tethys in the Tortonian-Messinian resulted in deformation of the upper lithosphere within large transform fracture zones of the central Atlantic. The deformation that occurred 10 Ma ago was a manifestation of the global neotectonic epoch of the Earth.     

Comparison of arsenic concentrations in simultaneously-collected groundwater and aquifer particles from Bangladesh,India, Vietnam,and Nepal

One of the reasons the processes resulting in As release to groundwater in southern Asia remain poorly understood is the high degree of spatial variability of physical and chemical properties in shallow aquifers. In an attempt to overcome this difficulty, a simple device that collects groundwater and sediment as a slurry from precisely the same interval was developed in Bangladesh. Recently published results from Bangladesh and India relying on the needle-sampler are augmented here with new data from 37 intervals of grey aquifer material of likely Holocene age in Vietnam and Nepal. A total of 145 samples of filtered groundwater ranging in depth from 3 to 36 m that were analyzed for As (1–1000 μg/L), Fe (0.01–40 mg/L), Mn (0.2–4 mg/L) and S (0.04–14 mg/L) are compared. The P-extractable (0.01–36 mg/kg) and HCl-extractable As (0.04–36 mg/kg) content of the particulate phase was determined in the same suite of samples, in addition to Fe(II)/Fe ratios (0.2–1.0) in the acid-leachable fraction of the particulate phase. Needle-sampler data from Bangladesh indicated a relationship between dissolved As in groundwater and P-extractable As in the particulate phase that was interpreted as an indication of adsorptive equilibrium, under sufficiently reducing conditions, across 3 orders of magnitude in concentrations according to a distribution coefficient of 4 mL/g. The more recent observations from India, Vietnam and Nepal show groundwater As concentrations that are often an order of magnitude lower at a given level of P-extractable As compared to Bangladesh, even if only the subset of particularly reducing intervals characterized by leachable Fe(II)/Fe >0.5 and dissolved Fe >0.2 mg/L are considered. Without attempting to explain why As appears to be particularly mobile in reducing aquifers of Bangladesh compared to the other regions, the consequences of increasing the distribution coefficient for As between the particulate and dissolved phase to 40 mL/g for the flushing of shallow aquifers of their initial As content are explored.     

Characterization and cycling of atmospheric mercury along the central US Gulf Coast

Concentrations of atmospheric Hg species, elemental Hg (Hg^°), reactive gaseous Hg (RGM), and fine particulate Hg (Hg-PM_2.5) were measured at a coastal site near Weeks Bay, Alabama from April to August, 2005 and January to May, 2006. Mean concentrations of the species were 1.6 ± 0.3 ng m⁻³, 4.0 ± 7.5 pg m⁻³ and 2.7 ± 3.4 pg m⁻³, respectively. A strong diel pattern was observed for RGM (midday maximum concentrations were up to 92.7 pg m⁻³), but not for Hg^° or Hg-PM_2.5. Elevated RGM concentrations (>25 pg m⁻³) in April and May of 2005 correlated with elevated average daytime O₃ concentrations (>55 ppbv) and high light intensity (>500 W m⁻²). These conditions generally corresponded with mixed continental-Gulf and exclusively continental air mass trajectories. Generally lower, but still elevated, RGM peaks observed in August, 2005 and January–March, 2006 correlated significantly (p < 0.05) with peaks in SO₂ concentration and corresponded to periods of high light intensity and lower average daytime O₃ concentrations. During these times air masses were dominated by trajectories that originated over the continent. Elevated RGM concentrations likely resulted from photochemical oxidation of Hg^° by atmospheric oxidants. This process may have been enhanced in and by the near-shore environment relative to inland sites. The marine boundary layer itself was not found to be a significant source of RGM.     

Biofacies analysis of Upper Cretaceous deposits in the Ust-Yenisei region: Implications of palynomorphs

The results of palynomorph biofacies analysis in the Upper Cretaceous deposits of the Ust-Yenisei region are presented. The established facies confinement and indicative features of separate palynomorph groups are used, along with identified dinocyst morphotypes and taxa, in paleogeographic reconstructions. Seven palynomorph associations characterizing continental, coastal-marine, shallow-and deep-water facies are distinguished based on quantitative proportions between morphological groupings and individual taxa. As boundaries between distinguishable biostratigraphic and facies subdivisions do not coincide, dinocysts were likely insignificantly dependent in distribution on facies in the West Siberian epicontinental basin at least. On the other hand, distribution trends of particular dinocyst morphotypes and other microphytofossils are correlative with transgressive-regressive cycles and can be used for reconstruction of paleoenvironments.     

Correlation of the Jurassic-Cretaceous siliceous-volcanogenic sediments in northwestern surroundings of the Pacific (Koryak Upland)

In distribution areas of the Pekul’neiveem and Chirynai formations customary distinguishable in the Koryak Upland, complicated tectonostratigraphic units are composed of alternating thrust sheets of different lithologic composition and age, which are juxtaposed because of widespread thrust faulting, as is proved by the radiolarian analysis. Nineteen radiolarian assemblages of different age are first established here in the Lower Jurassic-Hauterivian succession of siliceous-volcanogenic sediments. In the Lower Jurassic interval, the lower and upper Hettangian, lower and upper Sinemurian, and Pliensbachian beds are recognized. Paleontological characterization is also presented for the Aalenian (or Toarcian?-Aalenian), upper Bajocian, lower and upper Bathonian, and Callovian beds of the Middle Jurassic. Within the Upper Jurassic, the Oxfordian-early Kimmeridgian, late Kimmeridgian-early Tithonian, Tithonian, and late Tithonian-early Berriasian radiolarian assemblages are distinguished. The late Berriasian-early Valanginian, middle-late Valanginian, and Hauterivian radiolarian assemblages are first recognized or compositionally revised. Radiolarians and lithofacies data are used to correlate the tectonostratigraphic units and individualize the jasper-alkali basaltic (lower Hettangian), chert-terrigenous (Hettangian-Sinemurian), jasper-cherty (Pliensbachian-Aalenian), jasper (Bajocian-Hauterivian), jasper-basaltic (upper Bajocian-Valanginian), Fe-Ti basaltic (upper Bajocian-Bathonian), tuffitejasper-basaltic (Bathonian-Hauterivian), and terrigenous-volcanogenic (Bajocian-Valanginian) sequences. The correlation results are extrapolated into other continental areas flanking the Pacific, i.e., to the western Kamchatka, northern and northwestern coastal areas of the Sea of Okhotsk, where the analogous radiolarian assemblages are characteristic of comparable allochthonous units of terrigenous-siliceous-volcanogenic sediments.     

Campanian-Maastrichtian radiolarians from the Malokuril’skaya Formation,the Shikotan Island

The results of radiolarian analysis confirm the Campanian-Maastrichtian age of the Malokuril’skaya Formation in the Shikotan Island. The Campanian-Maastrichtian age of the formation is implied simultaneously by radiolarians and inoceramids. The studied Campanian and Campanian-Maastrichtian radiolarian assemblages include abundant specimens representing genus Prunobrachium, characteristic of which was bipolar distribution in cold-water to temperate basins. The new occurrence site of prunobrachids is established at the latitude of 43°N, the Far East of Russia.     

Geochronology of Pliocene volcanism in the Dzhavakheti Highland (the Lesser Caucasus). Part 1: Western part of the Dzhavakheti Highland

Isotopic-geochronological study of the Pliocene magmatic activity in western part of the Dzhavakheti Highland (northwestern region of the Lesser Caucasus) is carried out. The results obtained imply that the Pliocene magmatic activity lasted in this part of the highland approximately 2 million years from 3.75 to 1.75–1.55 Ma. As is established, the studied volcanic rocks correspond in composition mostly to K-Na subalkaline and more abundant normal basalts. Time constraints of main phases in development of basic volcanism within the study region are figured out. We assume that individual pulses of silicic to moderately silicic volcanism presumably took place in the Dzhavakheti Highland about 3.2 and 2.5 Ma ago.