Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971–2050)

The complex topography and high climatic variability of the North Western Mediterranean Basin (NWMB) require a detailed assessment of climate change projections at high resolution. ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate projections for mid-21st century and three different emission scenarios are downscaled at 10 km resolution over the NWMB, using the WRF-ARW regional model. High resolution improves the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation climatologies, with Pearson's correlation against observation being higher for WRF-ARW (0.98 for temperature and 0.81 for precipitation) when compared to the ERA40 reanalysis (0.69 and 0.53, respectively). However, downscaled results slightly underestimate mean temperature (≈1.3 K) and overestimate the precipitation field (≈400 mm/year). Temperature is expected to raise in the NWMB in all considered scenarios (up to 1.4 K for the annual mean), and particularly during summertime and at high altitude areas. Annual mean precipitation is likely to decrease (around ?5 % to ?13 % for the most extreme scenarios). The climate signal for seasonal precipitation is not so clear, as it is highly influenced by the driving GCM simulation. All scenarios suggest statistically significant decreases of precipitation for mountain ranges in winter and autumn. High resolution simulations of regional climate are potentially useful to decision makers. Nevertheless, uncertainties related to seasonal precipitation projections still persist and have to be addressed.     

Impact of Hydropower Regulation on River Water Composition in Northern Sweden

Using hydrogeochemical analysis of two large boreal rivers (pristine Kalix and hydropower regulated Lule) discharging into the Gulf of Bothnia, the major impacts of regulation on water discharge, element transport and their seasonal redistribution have been assessed. The pre-regulation hydrogeochemical features were assumed to be similar for the two rivers. For the Lule River, the average maximum runoff was almost halved, while the average minimum was tripled as a result of the regulation. The fraction of winter transport of total organic carbon (TOC), Fe, Si, suspended Mn and P in the Lule River was, according to a conservative estimate, two to three times higher than in the pristine river. Longer residence time in the Lule River delayed arrival of the suspended Mn peak and dissolved Si decline to the river mouth. During summer, the suspended C/N ratio in the regulated river was 10–20 compared to <10 for the pristine, suggesting presence of predominantly old organic material. This was supported by a virtually constant suspended P/Fe ratio throughout the year in the Lule River, indicating low abundance of phytoplankton. TOC varied irregularly in the Lule River suggesting temporal disconnection between the river and the upper riparian zone. The disappearance of the spring flow maximum, a shift of element transport from spring to winter and supply of mainly old organic material during the vegetation growth season may have a pronounced impact on the ecosystem of the Gulf of Bothnia and the river itself.     

Basement lithostratigraphy of the Adula nappe: implications for Palaeozoic evolution and Alpine kinematics

The Adula nappe belongs to the Lower Penninic domain of the Central Swiss Alps. It consists mostly of pre-Triassic basement lithologies occurring as strongly folded and sheared gneisses of various types with mafic boudins. We propose a new lithostratigraphy for the northern Adula nappe basement that is supported by detailed field investigations, U–Pb zircon geochronology, and whole-rock geochemistry. The following units have been identified: Cambrian clastic metasediments with abundant carbonate lenses and minor bimodal magmatism (Salahorn Formation); Ordovician metapelites associated with amphibolite boudins with abundant eclogite relicts representing oceanic metabasalts (Trescolmen Formation); Ordovician peraluminous metagranites of calc-alkaline affinity ascribed to subduction-related magmatism (Garenstock Augengneiss); Ordovician metamorphic volcanic–sedimentary deposits (Heinisch Stafel Formation); Early Permian post-collisional granites recording only Alpine orogenic events (Zervreila orthogneiss). All basement lithologies except the Permian granites record a Variscan + Alpine polyorogenic metamorphic history. They document a complex Paleozoic geotectonic evolution consistent with the broader picture given by the pre-Mesozoic basement framework in the Alps. The internal consistency of the Adula basement lithologies and the stratigraphic coherence of the overlying Triassic sediments suggest that most tectonic contacts within the Adula nappe are pre-Alpine in age. Consequently, mélange models for the Tertiary emplacement of the Adula nappe are not consistent and must be rejected. The present-day structural complexity of the Adula nappe is the result of the intense Alpine ductile deformation of a pre-structured entity.     

Effects of sinuosity factor on hydrodynamic parameters estimation in karst systems: a dye tracer experiment from the Beyyayla sinkhole (Eskişehir,Turkey)

The sinuosity factor (SF) is a critical value in karst systems in terms of estimating their hydrodynamic parameters including groundwater velocity, coefficient of dispersion, etc., through dye tracer experiments. SF has been used in a number of different dye tracer experiments in karstic systems to estimate a representative flow path. While knowing SF is crucially important in the estimation of hydrodynamic parameters, its calculation is associated with significant uncertainty due to the complexity of subsurface karstic features. And yet, only a few studies have discussed its uncertainties, which might lead some errors in estimation of hydrodynamic parameters from dye tracer experiment. In this study, dye tracer experiments were conducted in two consecutive years (2003 and 2004) representing low and high flow conditions in the Beyyayla sinkhole (Eski?ehir, Turkey) where the flow path is well known. Uranine was used in experiments as a tracer and QTRACER computer program was used to determine the hydrodynamic properties of the Beyyayla karst system as well as to gain insights into the effects of SF from dye tracer experiments on estimated parameters. The results showed that the breakthrough curve follows a unimodal and a bimodal distribution in low and high flow conditions, respectively. These different distributions stem from the water transport mechanisms, where velocities were calculated as 58.2 and 93.6 m h^?1 during low and high flow conditions observed in a spring emerging from the south side of the studied system. The results also show that the coefficient of dispersion, Reynolds number, and Peclet number increased and longitudinal dispersivity decreased with the higher flow rate. Furthermore, the estimated parameters did not vary with either the flow conditions or the tracer transit time, but they have shown some variations with SF. When SF was increased by 50 %, a change in these parameters was obtained in the range of 50–125 %.     

The effect of the geomagnetic activity to the hourly variations of ionospheric foF2 values at low latitudes

In this study, the relationship between the hourly changes of the ionospheric critic frequency values of F2 layers in low latitudes and geomagnetic activity is examined by using statistical methods. The ionospheric critical frequency data has been taken from the Manila (121.1° E, 14.7° N) ionosonde station. In order to investigate the effect of sun activity on ionospheric critical frequency, the data of 1981 when the sun was active and of 1985 when the sun was less active has been used. According to the Granger causality test results, on 5 % significance level, a causality relationship from disturbance storm time (Dst) index values to ionospheric critical frequency values direction has been observed. However, a causality relationship from ionospheric critical frequency values to Dst values has not been observed. From the results of cause-and-effect analysis, it is evaluated that the effect of a shockwave occurring in geomagnetic activity on ionospheric critical frequency continues along 72 h, that is, geomagnetic activity has a long-term effect on ionospheric critical frequency. The response of ionospheric critical frequency to geomagnetic activity substantially depends on seasons. This response is more observed especially in equinox period when the sun is active and in winter months. The increase in geomagnetic activity causes ionospheric critical frequency to decrease in night hours and increase in day hours. The same relationship has not been observed exactly, though observed very little in winter months, for 1985 when the sun was less active.     

Fractures system within Dammam Dome and its relationship to the doming process,Eastern Saudi Arabia

Dammam Dome is an oval-shaped structure that covers an area of about 500 km² and encompasses Al Khobar, Al Dhahran and part of Ad Dammam cities, east of Saudi Arabia. The dome characterizes by the presence of well developed fractures system that exposes at its apex and extends to its peripheries. Based on their size, trend and extent, fractures within Dammam Dome are divided into three types: regional (major) fractures, local (minor) fractures and very small size-localized fractures. This study discusses the criteria used in classifying those fractures, and the relationship of the regional (major) ones to the doming process. A model for the trends pattern of fracture is suggested for those fractures, and examined with the concentric and radial fracture pattern associated normally with dome structures. The suggested model is compatible and concordant with the dome model, which proves that the major fractures in the area are related to the dome emplacement and process. Outcomes and findings of this study are crucial for understanding the behavior and distribution of fractures associated with domes. Additionally, the suggested model of fractures and their trend pattern is important model in similar setting for hydrocarbon exploration and for any urban development and major constructions within the Dome vicinities.     

Investigation of surface and subsurface displacements due to multiple tunnels excavation in urban area

Underground structures are currently widely used and are built as urbanism develops. The interactions between perpendicularly crossing and parallel tunnels in the Tehran region are investigated by using a full three-dimensional (3D) finite difference analysis with elastic-plastic material models. Special attention is paid to the effect of subsequent tunneling on the support system, i.e., the shotcrete lining and rock bolts of the existing tunnel. Eventually, as the tunnels are excavated at certain levels, the interaction between the tunnels will certainly have a significant influence on both stress distribution and consequently deformations. Since multilayer tunneling is a three-dimensional phenomenon in nature, 3D numerical solutions must be utilized for analyzing effect of perpendicularly crossing tunnels at various levels. As Tohid twin tunnels and Line 7 pass beneath the Line 4 metro tunnel, changes in stress distribution, deformations, and surface settlements are studied for various conditions and the results are presented in this paper. Consequently, it is shown that there is a significant interaction between tunnels that necessitate certain preventive measures to maintain a stable tunneling operation.     

Sedimentological and stratigraphic evolution of northern Lebanon since the Late Cretaceous: implications for the Levant margin and basin

This paper presents an updated review of the Upper Mesozoic and Cenozoic sedimentological and stratigraphic evolution of the Levant margin with a focus on the northern Lebanon. Facies and microfacies analysis of outcrop sections and onshore well cores (i.e., Kousba and Chekka) supported by nannofossil and planktonic foraminifers biostratigraphy, allowed to constrain the depositional environments prevailing in the Turonian to Late Miocene. The “Senonian” (a historical term used to define the Coniacian to Maastrichtian) source rock interval was subdivided into four sub-units with related outer-shelfal facies: (1) Upper Santonian, (2) Lower, (3) Upper Campanian, and (4) Lower Maastrichtian. This Upper Cretaceous rock unit marks the major drowning of the former Turonian rudist platform. This paper confirms the Late Lutetian to Late Burdigalian hiatus, which appears to be a direct consequence of major geodynamic events affecting the Levant region (i.e., the continued collision of Afro-Arabia with Eurasia), potentially enhanced by regressional cycles (e.g., Rupelian lowstand). The distribution of Late Burdigalian–Serravallian rhodalgal banks identified in northern Lebanon was controlled by pre-existing structures inherited from the pulsating onshore deformation. Reef barriers facies occur around the Qalhat anticline, separating an eastern, restricted back-reef setting from a western, coastal to open marine one. The acme of Mount Lebanon’s uplift and exposure is dated back to the Middle–Late Miocene; it led to important erosion of carbonates that were subsequently deposited in paleo-topographic lows. The Late Cretaceous to Cenozoic facies variations and hiatuses show that the northern Lebanon was in a higher structural position compared to the south since at least the Late Cretaceous.     

Discovering a pull-apart basin using InSAR in Bursa,Turkey

The city of Bursa in Turkey is surrounded by major and secondary fault branches which splay from the North Anatolian Fault. Nonetheless, as their traces were not exactly known in the alluvial land of the Bursa basin, until this study, they were not plotted in the official active fault map of Turkey. In this study, the Bursa basin was observed by InSAR technology, and the subsidence which is consistent with the pull-apart basin geometry was detected in the basin. This finding was discussed in the local platforms in Turkey. Then, the city of Bursa was included into the priority provinces for the urban reconstruction under the risk of an earthquake, and the official active fault map of the region was revised by General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration of Turkey.