The probability distributions and fractal dimension of sunspot cycles associated with ENSO phenomena

Various methods have been used to secure the certainty of significant relations among the sunspot cycles and some of the terrestrial climate parameters such as temperature, rainfall, and ENSO. This study investigates the behavior of ENSO cycles and mean monthly sunspot cycles. Sunspot cycles range from 1755 to 2016 whereas, ENSO cycles range from 1866 to 2012. In this regard, the appropriateness of distributions is investigated with the help of Kolmogorov-Smirnov D, Anderson-Darling, and chi-square tests. It is found that most of the sunspot cycle follows generalized Pareto distribution whereas, generalized extreme value distribution was found appropriate for ENSO cycles. Probability distribution is used to analyze the behavior of each sunspot cycle and ENSO cycle separately. Probability distribution indicates the tail behavior of each cycle; tail explored correlation cycles. Furthermore, self-similar and self-affine fractal dimension methods are used to compute Hurst exponents to determine the persistency of the available data. Fractal dimension has an ability to study the complexity involved in sunspot and ENSO cycles. The fractal dimension and Hurst exponent describe persistency (smoothness) and complexity of data. Hurst exponent measures long-term behavior of time series, making it more helpful for forecasting. This is the measure of regularity or irregularity (chaos) of the time function in the form of their persistency or anti-persistency, respectively. Hurst exponents are computed using rescaled range analysis method and box counting methods. Both these methods are suitable for long-term forecasting. The results of this study confirm that during the period 1980–2000, ENSO cycles were very active. Simultaneously, ENSO was active for the periods 1982–1983, 1986–1987, 1991–1993, 1994–1995, and 1997–1998; these periods include two strongest periods of the century viz., 1982–1983 and 1997–1998. Sunspot cycles and ENSO cycles both were found to be persistent. Self-similar fractal dimensions exhibited a better persistency and a better correlation as compared to self-affine fractal dimension. This research is a part of a larger research project investigating the correlation of sunspot cycles and ENSO cycles, and the influence of ENSO cycles on variations of the local climatic parameters which in turn depends on solar activity changes.     

Flood frequency analysis of river swat using Log Pearson type 3, Generalized Extreme Value,Normal, and Gumbel Max distribution methods

In Pakistan, floods are among the most devastating and recurring natural hazards. Flood hazard assessment requires flood event magnitude and probability of occurrence. Flood frequency analysis is the most common technique used for the at-site estimation of flood recurrence magnitude. This paper evaluates four most commonly used distribution methods, i.e., Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Log Pearson 3 (LP3), Gumbel Max, and Normal for the flood frequency and estimation of flood recurrence. Different hydrological stations data namely Khwazakhela, Chakdarra, Panjkora, and Munda Headwork located at Swat river was taken from Provincial Irrigation Department, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The analysis is done for 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return periods by using annual maximum discharge data from 1980 to 2016 (37 yr). Three goodness-of-fit tests were applied to the fitted distributions, i.e., Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling, and Chi-squared at 5% significance level. Results indicate that LP3 and GEV were ranked top two distributions at all locations while Gumbel Max and Normal were the least fitted having rank 3 and 4, respectively. Based on the goodness-of-fit ranking, LP3 was selected for the estimation of flood magnitude and return periods at Khwazakhela. Designed hydrographs based on probabilistic approach and flood 2010 hydrograph are presented for flood simulation.     

Large scale mass movements triggered by the Kashmir earthquake 2005, Pakistan

The SPOT image analysis in Muzaffarabad Azad Kashmir,northwest Himalayas,Pakistan reveals that the Kashmir earthquake 2005 triggered a number of coseismic mass movements along the hanging wall block of the Muzaffarabad Fault.The Neelidandi and Langarpura rock falls have been identified as two major reactivated mass movements with an estimated volume of 3.1 × 106m3and 5.76 × 106m3,respectively.The Neelidandi and Langarpura mass movements were initiated during earthquake in the direction of northwest-southeast extension and northeastsouthwest directed thrusting,respectively.The Neelidandi rock fall occurred in sheared cherty dolomites and limestones of the Cambrian Muzaffarabad Formation,whereas the Langarpura rock fall occurred in alternating clays,shales,claystones,siltstones and sandstones of the Miocene Murree Formation.These rock units along the fault are highly fractured and jointed.The geotechnical maps and geological longitudinal profiles show the relationship between the geometrical characteristics and mechanism of these mass movements.Their characteristics were analyzed according to the role of topographic,seismic,geological and tectonic factors.The steep topography,sheared rocks,lithology,coseismic uplift and strong ground shaking of the hanging wall block along Muzaffarabad Fault facilitated the gravity collapse of these mass movements.     

Geochemistry and mineralogical composition of the airborne particles of sand dunes and dust storms settled in Iraq and their environmental impacts

Five dust storms that occurred in 2008 (15 March, 11 April, 28 April, 25, May and 26 June) in addition to the many sand dunes disseminated in the Western Desert of Iraq are sampled. The worse dust storm that occurred in Iraq in 11 April, 2008 covered 75% of the Iraq area and deposited 6.9?million tons approximately as a total weight of fallout during just 8?h, declining temperature 6°C. During the episodes of dust storms, visibility decreased enormously, no more than 30?m. Many people were taken to hospitals after sustaining breathing problems. Some of them died. Clay fraction is the dominant part in the dust storms forming 70% besides a little silt (20.6%) and sand (9.4%), then classified as mature arkose of clay to sandy clay, whereas sand dunes are formed from 72.7% sand, 25.1% silt and 2.19% clay, then classified as mature arkose of silty sand. Sand dunes have much maturity. Mineralogical composition of dust storms and sand dunes are Quartz (49.2%, 67.1%), feldspar (4.9%, 20.9%), calcite (38%, 5%), gypsum (4.8%, 0.4%), dolomite (0.8%, 1%) and heavy minerals (3.2%, 6.6%), respectively. Heavy mineral suites in the dust storms are represented by zircon, pyroxene, hornblende, chlorite and magnetite; whereas the sand dunes are represented by zircon, tourmaline, garnet and pyroxene, concentrated within sand fraction. Heavy minerals according to satellite images revealed the dry land of Sahara Desert in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula as well as Syria and Jordan were a major source of the dust storms that have occurred in Asia, including Iraq.     

Optimization of chlorination boosters in drinking water distribution network for Al-Khobar City in Saudi Arabia

Water quality management in distribution networks is directly related to spatial distribution of chlorine boosters and its dosages. Water chlorination is essential to reduce the effects of bacterial and other microbiological contaminants. A higher dosage of chlorine generates harmful by-products in addition to changes in drinking water’s taste and odor. The optimization of chlorine dosage is necessary to decrease the microbial contaminants that affect water quality. Once the chlorine threshold is determined for microbial contaminant, it will help decision makers suggest optimal values. These decisions can rely on the estimated water quality index (WQI). WQI is an index to evaluate water quality and can be linked to adequate residual chlorine with optimal booster dosage, numbers, and locations in water distribution network (WDN). The city of Al-Khobar, Saudi Arabia’s WDN was selected to validate the application of this study. Based on geographic location, the city Al-Khobar water network was divided into five zones. The initial temporal and spatial analysis pointed out poor water quality zones. EPANET, a modeling and simulating software, was applied to evaluate the WQI. Those EPANET results were then integrated with an optimization model. The optimization model suggested new chlorine booster locations to improve water quality in the city of Al-Khobar water distribution network.     

Characteristics,modification and environmental application of Yemen’s natural bentonite

The bentonite deposit of Lahij Province, Yemen, has very promising commercial applications due to its mineralogy and physical and chemical properties. It was examined to determine its mineralogical composition, chemical and physical properties of the bentonite deposit, purity and sodium-exchanged bentonite. Modified bentonite was synthesized by exchanging cetyltrimethylammonium cations for inorganic ions on the bentonite and its adsorption properties for ammonium were characterized in batch experiments. Analytical methods were carried out to study the bentonite comprising X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), infrared spectroscopy, chemical analysis and kinetic and isotherm models were also tested. The results have shown that the purification of bentonite resulted in a bentonite fractions of the total sample composed of montmorillonite and <5 % quartz. The XRD data showed that the interlayer spacing (d ₀₀₁) of bentonite decreased from 15.3 to 12.5 Å and then increased to 19.7 Å. Moreover, high cation exchange capacity, good water absorption and high swelling capacity were also obtained. The results have shown that the modified bentonite was more effective than the natural bentonite for ammonium removal. In addition to that, pseudo-second-order kinetic model, Freundlich and the Langmuir models described the adsorption kinetics and isotherm well. It was concluded that Yemen (Alaslef) bentonite can be potential adsorbents for ammonium removal.     

The use of vertical electrical sounding resistivity method for the location of low salinity groundwater for irrigation in Chaj and Rachna Doabs

A geoelectrical resistivity survey using vertical electrical sounding (VES) was conducted at Chaj Doab (land between rivers Jhelum and Chenab, Pakistan) and Rachna Doab (land between rivers Chenab and Ravi, Pakistan), with the objective of investigating groundwater conditions. A total of 90 sites were selected with 43 sites in Chaj and 47 sites in Rachna Doabs. The resistivity meter (ABEM Terrameter SAS 4000, Sweden) was used to collect the VES data by employing a Schlumberger electrode configuration, with half current electrode spacings (AB/2) ranging from 2 to 180 m and the potential electrode (MN) from 1 to 40 m. The field data were interpreted using the Interpex IX1D computer software and the resistivity versus depth models for each location was estimated. The outputs of subsurface layers with resistivities and thickness presented in contour maps and 3-D views by using SURFER software were created. A total of 102 groundwater samples from nearby hydrowells at different depths were collected to develop a correlation between the aquifer resistivity of VES and the electrical conductivity (EC) of the groundwater and to confirm the resulted geophysical resistivity models. From the correlation developed, it was observed that the groundwater salinity in the aquifer may be considered low and so safe for irrigation if resistivity >45 Ω m, and marginally fit for irrigation having resistivity between 25 and 45 Ω m. The study area has resistivities from 3.9 to 2,222 Ω m at the top of the unsaturated layer, between 1.21 and 171 Ω m, in the shallow aquifers, and 0.14–152 Ω m in the deep aquifers of the study area. The results indicate that the quality of groundwater is better near the rivers and in the shallow layers compared to the deep layers.     

影响三大洲的北非强沙尘暴动力机制WRF-chem模拟与分析北大核心

基于WRF-chem模式对北非2018年3月下旬的典型强沙尘暴过程进行模拟,分析了此次强沙尘发生季节、持续时间、局地特征以及传输路径的关键动力系统与动力机制。鉴于起沙是沙尘暴发生的关键点之一,并且起沙主要取决于风力和下垫面沙源性质,本文测试了三种起沙参数化方案的影响,并将模拟结果与卫星MODIS监测及其再分析资料MERRA-2进行了对比,又经系列统计方法检验。结果显示,宏观思路的起沙方案GOCART比AFWA和UoC两种起沙方案更适合此次大尺度强沙尘暴数值模拟(锋面跨度接近60个经度)。综合沙尘暴关键系统的动力机制分析和数值模拟结果显示,强沙尘暴关键系统为深厚的西风槽、沙尘冷锋锋面和锋后的地面高压反气旋。北非中部深厚的西风槽为后倾槽,该系统稳定,造成沙尘暴持续时间长。沙尘暴锋后反气旋中的下沉气流抑制了扬沙向高层扩散,造成低层能见度恶劣。沙尘锋区结合了动力、热动力以及湿热动力不稳定,因此锋区风力大,地面沙尘驱动力强。而西风槽和强大反气旋依托环流形势,提供了沙尘传输到三大洲的长途输送力。