Scenario-based seismic hazard analysis using spectral element method in northeastern Pakistan

Natural Hazards - Seismic hazard analysis is carried out in this study by estimating ground motion for hypothetical earthquakes in the area of Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, with the MT solution of the...     

Nexus between natural and technical disaster shocks,resource depletion and growth-specific factors: evidence from quantile regression

Natural Hazards - Debris flows are a hazardous natural calamity in mountainous regions of Nepal. Torrential rainfall within a very short period of the year is the main triggering factor for...     

Dambreak flood impact on mountain stream bedload transport after 13 years

Studies of the bedload transport regime of the Roaring River, Colorado, in 1984–88, following a dambreak flood in 1982, showed that bedload transport rates were an order of magnitude higher than under pre-flood conditions. A gorge eroded by the flood in glacial moraine acted as a major sediment supply source. Measurements in early June 1995 showed a continued potential for high sediment supply from the gorge and a bedload transport regime similar to that of 1984–88. A major snowmelt flood in mid-June flushed sediment supplies from the gorge and measurements in July showed a corresponding reduction in bedload transport. However, high sediment supply will continue until the gorge cliffs revegetate or erode to a stable slope. The measurements demonstrate both the control exercised by sediment supply on transport rates and the persistent long-term impact of major floods on mountain streams. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integration of geoelectric and hydrochemical approaches for delineation of groundwater potential zones in alluvial aquifer

Geoelectric and hydrochemical approaches are employed to delineate the ground-water potential zones in District Okara, a part of Bari Doab, Punjab, Pakistan. Sixty-seven VES surveys are conducted with the Electrical Resistivity Meter. The resultant resistivity verses depth model for each site is estimated using computer-based software IX1D. Aquifer thickness maps and interpreted resistivity maps were generated from interpreted VES results. Dar-Zarrouk parameters, transverse resistance (TR), longitudinal conductance (SL) and anisotropy (λ) were also calculated from resistivity data to delineate the potential zones of aquifer. 70% of SL value is ≤3S, 30% of SL value is > 3S. According to SL and TR values, the whole area is divided into three potential zones, high, medium and low potential zones. The spatial distribution maps show that north, south and central parts of study area are marked as good potential aquifer zones. Longitudinal conductance values are further utilized to determine aquifer protective capacity of area. The whole area is characterized by moderate to good and up to some extent very good aquifer protective area on the basis of SL values. The groundwater samples from sixty-seven installed tube wells are collected for hydro-chemical analysis. The electrical conductivity values are determined. Correlation is then developed between the EC (μS/cm) of groundwater samples vs. interpreted aquifer resistivity showing R2 value 0.90.     

Disintegration of uncertainties associated with real-time multi-satellite precipitation products in diverse topographic and climatic area in Pakistan

Satellite-based Precipitation Estimates(SPEs)have gained importance due to enhanced spatial and temporal resolution,particularly in Indus basin,where raingauge network has fewer observation stations and drainage area is laying in many countries.Formulation of SPEs is based on indirect mechanism,therefore,assessment and correction of associated uncertainties is required.In the present study,disintegration of uncertainties associated with four prominent real time SPEs,IMERG,TMPA,CMORPH and PERSIANN has been conducted at grid level,regional scale,and summarized in terms of regions as well as whole study area basis.The bias has been disintegrated into hit,missed,false biases,and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)into systematic and random errors.A comparison among gauge-and satellite-based precipitation estimates at annual scale,showed promising result,encouraging use of real time SPEs in the study area.On grid basis,at daily scale,from box plots,the median values of total bias(-0.5 to 0.5 mm)of the used SPEs were also encouraging although some under/over estimations were noted in terms of hit bias(-0.15 to 0.05 mm/day).Relatively higher values of missed(0.3 to 0.5 mm/day)and false(0.5 to 0.7 mm/day)biases were observed.The detected average daily RMSE,systematic errors,and random errors were also comparatively higher.Regional-scale spatial distribution of uncertainties revealed lower values of uncertainties in plain areas,depicting the better performance of satellite-based products in these areas.However,in areas of high altitude(>4000 m),due to complex topography and climatic conditions(orographic precipitation and glaciated peaks)higher values of biases and errors were observed.Topographic barriers and point scale gauge data could also be a cause of poor performance of SPEs in these areas,where precipitation is more on ridges and less in valleys where gauge stations are usually located.Precipitation system’s size and intensity can also be a reason of higher biases,because Microwave Imager underestimate precipitation in small systems(<200 km²)and overestimate in large systems(>2000 km²).At present,use of bias correction techniques at daily time scale is compulsory to utilize real time SPEs in estimation of floods in the study area.Inter comparison of satellite products indicated that IMERG gave better results than the others with the lowest values of systematic errors,missed and false biases.     

Landslide inventory and susceptibility modelling using geospatial tools,in Hunza-Nagar valley,northern Pakistan

A comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility maps are prerequisite for developing and implementing landslide mitigation strategies. Landslide susceptibility maps for the landslides prone regions in northern Pakistan are rarely available. The Hunza-Nagar valley in northern Pakistan is known for its frequent and devastating landslides. In this paper, we have developed a landslide inventory map for Hunza-Nagar valley by using the visual interpretation of the SPOT-5 satellite imagery and mapped a total of 172 landslides. The landslide inventory was subsequently divided into modelling and validation data sets. For the development of landslide susceptibility map seven discrete landslide causative factors were correlated with the landslide inventory map using weight of evidence and frequency ratio statistical models. Four different models of conditional independence were used for the selection of landslide causative factors. The produced landslides susceptibility maps were validated by the success rate and area under curves criteria. The prediction power of the models was also validated with the prediction rate curve. The validation results shows that the success rate curves of the weight of evidence and the frequency models are 82% and 79%, respectively. The prediction accuracy results obtained from this study are 84% for weight of evidence model and 80% for the frequency ratio model. Finally, the landslide susceptibility index maps were classified into five different varying susceptibility zones. The validation and prediction result indicates that the weight of evidence and frequency ratio model are reliable to produce an accurate landslide susceptibility map, which may be helpful for landslides management strategies.     

Petrography,geochemistry and provenance of the sediments of the Early Cretaceous Yanguoxia Formation,Lanzhou-Minhe Basin,Northwest China

Lanzhou-Minhe Basin is situated on the middle Qilian orogenic belt. Yanguoxia Formation contains abundance of maroon siltstones, mudstones and red sandstones of the lake facies. These sedimentary rocks recorded the process of the tectonic uplift of Qilian Mountains during the Early Cretaceous. We discovered plentiful dinosaur footprints, worm burrows, bird footprints, worm tracks-trails, ripple marks and cross lamination in the Yanguoxia site. Integrated petrographic studies classified sandstones of Yanguoxia Formation as feldspathic litharenite. All plots in the QFL (Q or Qt, total quartz; F, feldspar; L, lithic grains) and QmFLt (Qm, monocrystalline quartz; Lt, lithic grains plus polycrystalline quartz) diagrams fall in the recycled orogen provenance field and quartzose recycled field, respectively, implying the source occurred the tectonic activity. Furthermore, geochemical study indicates that the Yanguoxia standstone was formed in an unstable continental setting due to the northwards movement of Indian Plate triggered the collision between the Qilian fold belt and the Qinling fold belt. These sediments were derived from a mixed source and then deposited in the Lanzhou-Minhe Basin. Most of the felsic components were derived from the granitoid rocks of the Qilian Mountains due to the rapid and intense uplift during the Early Cretaceous while the mafic components were contributed by the basic and ultrabasic rocks of the rapidly rising ophiolite in the Qilian Mountain area. Bivariant log-log plot of Qp/(F+L) (Qp, polycrystalline quartz) against Q/(F+L) shows that Yanguoxia Formation was deposited in the semi-humid and semi-arid. Moreover, the pollen also exhibits that the environmental condition during the deposition of Yanguoxia Formation was warm and wet, which affirm such environment was benefit to dinosaur survival. Geochemical study also infers that the Yanguoxia Formation was deposited under the oxidizing condition in a shallow marine environment. The minerals identified from the X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis of shale and siltstone samples are 4.74%-33.53% clays, 23.45%-4l.70% carbonates and 33.99%-71.81% quartz, respectively, which infer that depositional conditions remained uniform during the formation of shales or siltstones of Yanguoxia Formation.     

A wavelet based approach for combining the outputs of different rainfall–runoff models

The rainfall–runoff modelling being a stochastic process in nature is dependent on various climatological variables and catchment characteristics and therefore numerous hydrological models have been developed to simulate this complex process. One approach to modelling this complex non-linear rainfall–runoff process is to combine the outputs of various models to get more accurate and reliable results. This multi-model combination approach relies on the fact that various models capture different features of the data, and hence combination of these features would yield better result. This study for the first time presented a novel wavelet based combination approach for estimating combined runoff The simulated daily output (Runoff) of five selected conventional rainfall–runoff models from seven different catchments located in different parts of the world was used in current study for estimating combined runoff for each time period. Five selected rainfall–runoff models used in this study included four data driven models, namely, the simple linear model, the linear perturbation model, the linearly varying variable gain factor model, the constrained linear systems with a single threshold and one conceptual model, namely, the soil moisture accounting and routing model. The multilayer perceptron neural network method was used to develop combined wavelet coupled models to evaluate the effect of wavelet transformation (WT). The performance of the developed wavelet coupled combination models was compared with their counterpart simple combination models developed without WT. It was concluded that the presented wavelet coupled combination approach outperformed the existing approaches of combining different models without applying input WT. The study also recommended that different models in a combination approach should be selected on the basis of their individual performance.     

Geophysical Investigation of Fresh‐Saline Water Interface: A Case Study from South Punjab,Pakistan

The importance of the study of fresh‐saline water incursion cannot be over‐emphasized. Borehole techniques have been widely used, but they are quite expensive, intrusive, and time consuming. The electrical resistivity method has proved very successful in groundwater assessment. This advanced technique uses the calculation of Dar‐Zarrouk (D‐Z) parameters, namely longitudinal unit conductance, transverse unit resistance, and longitudinal resistivity has been employed by using 50 vertical electrical sounding points to assess the groundwater and delineate the fresh‐saline water interface over 1045 km² area of Khanewal in Southern Punjab of Pakistan. The x‐y plots and maps of D‐Z parameters were produced to establish a decipherable vision for the occurrence and distribution of different water‐bearing formations of fresh‐saline water aquifers through a complicated situation of intermixing of different resistivity ranges for fresh‐saline water bodies. This technique is useful to reduce the ambiguity produced by the process of equivalence and suppression which cause intermixing in differentiating fresh, brackish, and saline aquifers during interpretation. The fresh‐saline water interface is correlated very well with the previous studies of water quality analysis carried out in Khanewal area. The results suggest that the D‐Z parameters are useful for demarcating different aquifer zones. The behavior and pattern of D‐Z parameters with respect to occurrence and distribution of different water‐bearing formations were effectively identified and delineated in the study area.     

Spatial modeling of Dengue prevalence and kriging prediction of Dengue outbreak in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Pakistan) using presence only data

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - During the span of August–October, 2017 a major outbreak of Dengue fever happened in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Cases...