Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in the Sahel – Part 1. Methodological Approach and Case Study for Millet in Niger

In the last 30 years the climate of the West African Sahel has shown various changes, especially in terms of rainfall, of which inter-annual variabilityis very high. This has significant consequences for the poor-resource farmers, whose incomes depend mainly on rainfed agriculture. The West African Sahel is already known as an area characterized by important interaction between climate variability and key socio-economic sectors such as agriculture and water resources. More than 80% of the 55 million population of West African Sahel is rural, involved in agriculture and stock-farming, the two sectors contributing almost 35% of the countries' GDPs. It is thereforeobvious that climate change seriously affects the economies of these countries. Adding to this situation the high rate of population increase(3%), leading to progressive pressure upon ecosystems, and poorsanitary facilities, one comes to the conclusion that Sahelian countries, Niger amongst them, will be highly vulnerable to climate change.This paper investigates the impact of current climate variability and future climate change on millet production for three major millet-producing regions in Niger. Statistical models have been used to predict the effects of climate change on future production on the basis of thirteen available predictors. Based on the analysis of the past 30-years of rainfall and production data, the most significant predictors of the model are (i) seasurface temperature anomalies, (ii) the amount of rainfall in July, August and September, (iii) the number of rainy days and (iv) the wind erosion factor. In 2025, production of millet is estimated to be about 13% lower as a consequence of climate change, translated into a reduction of the total amount of rainfall for July, August and September, combined with an increase in temperature while maintaining other significant predictors at a constant level. Subsequently,various potential strategies to compensate this loss are evaluated, including those to increase water use efficiency and to cultivate varieties that are adapted to such circumstances.     

Fracture in Westerly Granite under AE Feedback and Constant Strain Rate Loading: Nucleation, Quasi-static Propagation, and the Transition to Unstable Fracture Propagation

New observations of fracture nucleation are presented from three triaxial compression experiments on intact samples of Westerly granite, using Acoustic Emission (AE) monitoring. By conducting the tests under different loading conditions, the fracture process is demonstrated for quasi-static fracture (under AE Feedback load), a slowly developing unstable fracture (loaded at a `slow' constant strain rate of 2.5 × 10<sup>−6</sup> /s) and an unstable fracture that develops near instantaneously (loaded at a `fast' constant strain rate of 5 × 10⁻⁵ /s). By recording a continuous ultrasonic waveform during the critical period of fracture, the entire AE catalogue can be captured and the exact time of fracture defined. Under constant strain loading, three stages are observed: (1) An initial nucleation or stable growth phase at a rate of ~ 1.3 mm/s, (2) a sudden increase to a constant or slowly accelerating propagation speed of ~ 18 mm/s, and (3) unstable, accelerating propagation. In the ~ 100 ms before rupture, the high level of AE activity (as seen on the continuous record) prevented the location of discrete AE events. A lower bound estimate of the average propagation velocity (using the time-to-rupture and the existing fracture length) suggests values of a few m/s. However from a low gain acoustic record, we infer that in the final few ms, the fracture propagation speed increased to 175 m/s. These results demonstrate similarities between fracture nucleation in intact rock and the nucleation of dynamic instabilities in stick slip experiments. It is suggested that the ability to constrain the size of an evolving fracture provides a crucial tool in further understanding the controls on fracture nucleation.     

Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada

This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a “markup-free delivery” policy. Producers’ ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability.     

Mechanical shredding of water hyacinth (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Eichhornia crassipes</Emphasis>): Effects on water quality in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta,California

Management actions to control invasive aquatic species can have significant ecosystem-scale effects. We evaluated the water chemistry and nutrient effects of mechanical shredding to control water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) in an agricultural slough and a tidal wetland on the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California. Shredding was conducted with two types of shredder boats in fall of 2003 and another boat in spring of 2004. Shredding measurably affected water quality, but specific effects varied as a function of shredding site and season. Significant increases were observed for total Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus for all experiments. Dissolved oxygen effects varied by site, decreasing after shredding at the agricultural slough but increasing at the tidal wetland. The increase in dissolved oxygen likely resulted from tidal incursions from the adjacent river. A year-long time series of dissolved oxygen data indicated a negative relationship between hyacinth abundance and dissolved oxygen concentrations. Hyacinth contained similar tissue concentrations of mercury to underlying sediments, suggesting that plant harvesting could aid mercury remediation efforts. Simple mass calculations indicated that Delta-wide shredding operations could cause between 0.1% and 9.6% increases in the overall abundance of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in the Delta water column. Results suggest that local effects of management actions to control invasive aquatic plants will vary widely as a function of site-specific hydrology, but that estuary-wide effects would be limited.     

The relationship between electrical conductivity and selected macroinvertebrate communities in four river systems of south-west Victoria, Australia

In order to relate macroinvertebrate fauna to electrical conductivity (EC), a survey of selected orders of macroinvertebrates was conducted in the Glenelg, Hopkins, Merri and Barwon River Catchments in south-west Victoria, Australia. The survey consisted of sampling 21 paired sites at confluences of streams. There was little difference between the in-stream habitat but there was a range of differences in EC between each of the paired sites. The dissimilarity of macroinvertebrate fauna between the paired sites was compared to the proportional difference in EC and other water quality variables (dissolved oxygen, water temperature, pH, NO₂−N, NO₃−N, PO₄ and turbidity). This allowed the elimination of EC being confounded with geographical scale parameters and took into account other water quality parameters that may be confounded with EC. A positive relationship was found between the dissimilarity of the fauna at each of the two paired sites and the proportional difference in EC. No such relationship was found for any other measured water quality variable. The results of this survey show that macroinvertebrate community structure is associated with EC of the river systems investigated after eliminating large scale geographical patterns, in-stream habitat and the measured water quality parameters.     

The NdSr isotopic correlation in mantle materials and geodynamic consequences

The neodymium-strontium isotopic correlation observed in most of the Earth mantle materials is evaluated by means of direct modelling. Several geochemical models are quantitatively developed to explain the observations. The main results of this modelling are that such a correlation is not geochemically trivial and that it corresponds to specific conditions in chemical fractionation. These specific conditions seem to be satisfied by solid-liquid partitioning in magmatic conditions. The discussion of the experimental data supports a continuous convecting-magmatic fractionation model for a large proportion of the mantle.     

Temporal and spatial zonation of macroepiphytes on Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile leaves in a meadow off Tunisia

The aim of this survey was to study the cover and the composition of macroepiphytic species on the leaves of Posidonia oceanica in the east of Tunisia. Surveys were conducted in December 2009 (winter period), March (spring period) and August 2010 (summer period) in a fringing reef located in Chebba. At each sampling date, 15 adult leaves were randomly collected and divided into basal and apical parts. The inner face of each part was examined with ocular glasses and microscope to estimate species cover by orthogonal projection. PERMANOVA and ANOSIM were used to test for differences of cover between sampling dates and leaf parts. SIMPER, cluster analysis, and PCA were used to ordinate species assemblages. Comparison of epiphytic cover along leaf blades showed significant differences for all groups, except cyanophycea, with high cover of hydrozoans and bryozoans in the basal part and high cover of algae in the apical part. The species composition and cover also vary with sampling date; minimum values were detected in December and the epiphytic community was composed of a few pioneer species, whereas maximum epiphytic cover values were registered in August, with the epiphytic community being composed of a more mature and more diverse community, termed ‘climax’. The main regulatory factors for this distribution are discussed.     

吉南地区万隆组燧石相微生物化石及其古环境意义

拉伸纪作为承接中元古代蓝菌时代以及成冰纪生物锐减的关键地质历史时期,是探索早期生命与环境演化最重要的时期之一。吉林南部地区地处华北板块东北缘,拉伸系发育完整、出露全,在燧石条带、燧石结核和泥页岩中富含微生物化石,是开展拉伸纪古生物学、生物地层学和古环境研究的理想地区。本次工作利用岩石切片法在吉林南部二道江地区万隆组顶部燧石中发现微生物化石6属9种,其中丝状蓝菌1属4种Siphonophycus robustum,S.typicum,S.kestron,S.solidum;球状蓝菌3属3种Eoentophysalis belcherensis,Gloeodiniopsis lamellosa,Scissilisphaera bistratosa;分类位置未定2属2种Glenobotrydion majorinum,Globophycus rugosum。这些微体化石的发现为开展万隆组古环境分析及生物地层对比研究提供了新的素材。研究显示,万隆组燧石相微生物组合以发育管鞘藻席(Siphonophycus mat)为主要特征,丝状蓝菌呈横向展布,长可达400μm以上,显示原地或近原地埋藏的特点...