Solar shield: forecasting and mitigating space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission systems

In this paper, central elements of the Solar Shield project, launched to design and establish an experimental system capable of forecasting the space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission system, are described. It will be shown how Sun–Earth system data and models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) are used to generate two-level magnetohydrodynamics-based forecasts providing 1–2 day and 30–60 min lead-times. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) represents the end-user, the power transmission industry, in the project. EPRI integrates the forecast products to an online display tool providing information about space weather conditions to the member power utilities. EPRI also evaluates the economic impacts of severe storms on power transmission systems. The economic analysis will quantify the economic value of the generated forecasting system. The first version of the two-level forecasting system is currently running in real-time at CCMC. An initial analysis of the system’s capabilities has been completed, and further analysis is being carried out to optimize the performance of the system. Although the initial results are encouraging, definite conclusions about system’s performance can be given only after more extensive analysis, and implementation of an automatic evaluation process using forecasted and observed geomagnetically induced currents from different nodes of the North American power transmission system. The final output of the Solar Shield will be a recommendation for an optimal forecasting system that may be transitioned into space weather operations.     

Using a Bayesian estimator to combine information from a cluster analysis and remote sensing data to estimate high-resolution data for agricultural production in Germany

In Germany, a county-resolution data set that consists of 35 land-use and animal-stock categories has been used extensively to assess the impact of agriculture on the environment. However, because such environmental effects as emission or nutrient surplus depend on the location, even a county resolution might produce misleading results. The aim of this article is to propose a Bayesian approach which combines two sorts of information, with one being treated as defining the prior and the other the data to form a posterior, used to estimate a data set at a municipality resolution. We define the joint prior density function based on (i) remote sensing data, thus accounting for differences in county data and missing data at the municipality level, and (ii) the results of a cluster analysis that was previously applied to the micro-census, whereas the data are defined by official statistics at the county level. This approach results in a fairly accurate data set at the municipality level. The results, using the proposed method, are validated by the national research data centre by comparing the estimates to actual observations. The test statistics presented here demonstrate that the proposed approach adequately estimates the production activities.     

Sensitivity of transient climate change to tidal mixing: Southern Ocean heat uptake in climate change experiments performed with ECHAM5/MPIOM

We investigate the sensitivity of the transient climate change to a tidal mixing scheme. The scheme parameterizes diapycnal diffusivity depending on the location of energy dissipation over rough topography, whereas the standard configuration uses horizontally constant diffusivity. We perform ensemble climate change experiments with two setups of MPIOM/ECHAM5, one setup with the tidal mixing scheme and the second setup with the standard configuration. Analysis of the responses of the transient climate change to CO₂ increase reveals that the implementation of tidal mixing leads to a significant reduction of the transient surface warming by 9 %. The weaker surface warming in the tidal run is localized particularly over the Weddell Sea, likely caused by a stronger ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. The analysis of the ocean heat budget reveals that the ocean heat uptake in both experiments is caused by changes in convection and advection. In the upper ocean, heat uptake is caused by reduced convection and enhancement of the Deacon Cell, which appears also in isopycnal coordinates. In the deeper ocean, heat uptake is caused by reduction of convective cooling associated with the circulation polewards of 65°S. Tidal mixing leads to stronger heat uptake in the Southern Ocean by causing stronger changes in advection, namely a stronger increase in the Deacon Cell and a stronger reduction in advective cooling by the circulation polewards of 65°S. Counter-intuitively, the relation between tidal mixing and greater heat storage in the deep ocean is an indirect one, through the influence of tidal mixing on the circulation.     

Combined influence of PDO and ENSO on northern Andean glaciers: a case study on the Cotopaxi ice-covered volcano,Ecuador

This paper describes the application of remote sensing in monitoring the fluctuations in one of the mountain glaciers in the Ecuadorean Andes during the past few decades using ASTER, EO-1 ALI, Landsat MSS, TM and ETM + images. Satellite images were used to calculate the snow line altitudes (SLAs) during the period 1979–2013. Cotopaxi ice covered volcano was studied as representative of Ecuadorian glaciers in the eastern cordillera. Precipitation and air temperature data from various gauging stations within the range of 30 km from the study site and monthly discharge and water level data from a gauging station were also utilized in this study. Anomalies in precipitation and temperature were found to be slightly different in the Cotopaxi region compared to nearby Antizana in the same cordillera and Chimborazo region in the western cordillera. An attempt to correlate the El Niño—southern oscillation phenomenon with the glacier fluctuations in Ecuadorian Andes was done successfully. Cold and warm regimes of Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also considered. The calculated glacier fluctuations obtained were similar to that performed on the nearby Antizana 15 in the eastern cordillera during 1995–2002. Precipitation and temperature anomalies were similar with Antizana 15. It is evident from the research that SLAs were highly fluctuated between the period of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events. It is also seen that the glacier fluctuations show a negative mass balance trend in during the warm regime of Pacific Decadal Oscillation during the past three decades. Glaciated areas were advanced during the La Nina events in the cold regime of PDO during 1998–2002.     

Anthropogenic influence of trace metals in sediments of the Al-Qilt catchment,West Bank,Palestine: 1. Contamination factor and bonding forms

Al-Qilt catchment, located east of both the Ramallah and Jerusalem districts is strongly influenced by waste waters discharged from Israeli settlements and Palestinian urban centers. In this research, our aim was to verify the chemical status of the surface sediments from the Al-Qilt catchment during 2008/2009. For this purpose, 36 surface sediment samples were collected and analyzed with ICP/MS within the fraction of below 63 μm. The extent of contamination of trace metals from Al-Qilt sediments sites were measured by evaluating the contamination factors (CF) from digestion by aqua regia and additionally by sequential extraction steps using the BCR-method. On the basis of the calculated CF, sediments appear particularly contaminated with Zn, Cu, Ag, Sn, Cd, Hg, Bi, and B. Three regions, Wadi Sweanit, Ras Al-Qilt, and Qalandiah have been identified as critical points of contamination. Trace metal inputs to the Al-Qilt catchment need to be kept under strict control in the future since Ras Al-Qilt is considered as one of the important springs in the area and is used for domestic purposes. Moreover, it will be susceptible to pollution if no action is taken to decrease the pollution at the upstream of Al-Qilt.     

Analysis of coprolites from the extinct mountain goat Myotragus balearicus

Humans colonized the Balearic Islands 5–4 ka ago. They arrived in a uniquely adapted ecosystem with the Balearic mountain goat Myotragus balearicus (Bovidae, Antilopinae, Caprini) as the only large mammal. This mammal went extinct rapidly after human arrival. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the extinction of M. balearicus. For the present study ancient DNA analysis (Sanger sequencing, Roche-454, Ion Torrent), and pollen and macrofossil analyses were performed on preserved coprolites from M. balearicus, providing information on its diet and paleo-environment. The information retrieved shows that M. balearicus was heavily dependent on the Balearic box species Buxus balearica during at least part of the year, and that it was most probably a browser. Hindcast ecological niche modelling of B. balearica shows that local distribution of this plant species was affected by climate changes. This suggests that the extinction of M. balearicus can be related to the decline and regional extinction of a plant species that formed a major component of its diet. The vegetation change is thought to be caused by increased aridity occurring throughout the Mediterranean. Previous hypotheses relating the extinction of M. balearicus directly to the arrival of humans on the islands must therefore be adjusted.     

Age and impacts of the caldera-forming Aniakchak II eruption in western Alaska

The mid-Holocene eruption of Aniakchak volcano (Aniakchak II) in southwest Alaska was among the largest eruptions globally in the last 10,000 years (VEI-6). Despite evidence for possible impacts on global climate, the precise age of the eruption is not well-constrained and little is known about regional environmental impacts. A closely spaced sequence of radiocarbon dates at a peatland site over 1000 km from the volcano show that peat accumulation was greatly reduced with a hiatus of approximately 90–120 yr following tephra deposition. During this inferred hiatus no paleoenvironmental data are available but once vegetation returned the flora changed from a Cyperaceae-dominated assemblage to a Poaceae-dominated vegetation cover, suggesting a drier and/or more nutrient-rich ecosystem. Oribatid mites are extremely abundant in the peat at the depth of the ash, and show a longer-term, increasingly wet peat surface across the tephra layer. The radiocarbon sample immediately below the tephra gave a date of 1636–1446 cal yr BC suggesting that the eruption might be younger than previously thought. Our findings suggest that the eruption may have led to a widespread reduction in peatland carbon sequestration and that the impacts on ecosystem functioning were profound and long-lasting.