Quantitative assessment of inundation risks from physical contributors associated with future storm surges: a case study of Typhoon Maemi (2003)

Natural Hazards - Future storm-induced inundation risks were assessed by performing storm surge modeling based on Typhoon Maemi (2003) under the generic climate change scenarios proposed by IPCC...     

Interrelationship between geochemical elements of sediment and groundwater at Samrak Park Delta of Nakdong River Basin in Korea: multivariate statistical analyses and artificial neural network approaches

This research was conducted at Samrak Park Delta of Nakdong River Basin in Busan Metropolitan City, Korea. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the interrelationship of geochemical elements in sediments and groundwater through multivariate statistical analyses and a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network model. The mean concentrations of chemical elements were Si (46%), Fe (16.9%), Al (15.7%), K (7.5%) and Ca (4.5%) in sediments, and Na (8650 mg/L), Mg (999 mg/L), Ca (432 mg/L), K (293 mg/L) and Cl (17,640 mg/L) in groundwater, respectively. The principal component analysis produced 3 kinds of factors with the variances of 63.37, 27.02 and 9.62%, respectively. It is suggested that the chemical components of sediments and groundwater were mainly originated from source rocks and seawater intrusion, with the minor impacts of irrigation and industry. Cluster analysis also showed that chemical elements were mainly controlled by the natural geogenic sources and seawater intrusion. Multilayer perceptron of artificial neural network (ANN) presented the good interrelationship between sediment and groundwater. The determination coefficients (R ²) between ANN predicted values and observed values in groundwater showed the high values of 0.61–0.97 except Mg, Mn and Sr. It is revealed that the chemical components of sediment and groundwater were derived from local geological origin and from the minor impact of anthropogenic sources. Multivariate analyses and ANN contributed to the identification of the mutual relationship between the geochemical elements of sediment and those of groundwater.     

The first peak ground motion attenuation relationships for North of Vietnam

The first attenuation relationships of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) for northern Vietnam are obtained in this study. Ground motion data are collected by a portable broadband seismic network in northern Vietnam as a part of cooperation between the Institute of Geophysics, Vietnamese Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam and Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taiwan. The database comprises a total of 330 amplitude records by 14 broadband stations from 53 shallow earthquakes, which were occurred in and around northern Vietnam in the period between 01/2006 and 12/2009. These earthquakes are of local magnitudes between 1.6 and 4.6, focal depths less than 30 km, and epicentral distances less than 500 km. The new attenuation relationships for PGA and PGV are:

log₁₀(PGA)=-0.987+0.7521M_L-log₁₀(R)-0.00475R,     

Long-term simulations of the sulfur concentrations over the China, Japan and Korea: A model comparison study

Three comprehensive acid deposition models were used to simulate the sulfur concentrations over northeast Asia over the period covering entire year of 2002, and discussed the aggregated uncertainties and discrepancies of the three models. The participating models are from the countries participating in the project of Longrange Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia (LTP): China, Japan and Korea. The Eulerian Model-3/CMAQ (by China), Regional Air Quality Model (RAQM, by Japan), and Comprehensive Acid Deposition Model (CADM, by Korea) were employed by each country with common emissions data established by the administrative agencies of China, Japan and Korea. The episodic simulation results between 1 to 15, March 2002 are also presented, during which aircraft measurements were carried out over the Yellow sea. The episodic results show both a wide short-term variability in simulations against measurements, and maximum concentration differences of 3～5 times among the three models, requiring that further attention before confidence among the three models can be claimed for short-term simulations. However, the year-long cumulative simulations showed almost the same general features, with lower aggregated uncertainties between the three models, produced by the long term integration over northeast Asia.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cochlodinium polykrikoides</Emphasis> red tide detection in the South Sea of Korea using spectral classification of MODIS data

To distinguish true red tide water (particularly Cochlodinium polykrikoides blooms) from non-red tide water (false satellite high chlorophyll water) in the South Sea of Korea, we developed a systematic classification method using spectral information from MODIS level products and applied it to five different harmful algal bloom events. Red tide and nonred tide waters were classified based on four different criteria. The first step revealed that the radiance peaks of potential red tide water occurred at 555 and 678 nm. The second step separated optically different waters that were influenced by relatively low and high contributions of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) (including detritus) to chlorophyll. The third and fourth steps discriminated red tide water from non-red tide water based on the blue-to-green ratio in areas with lower and higher contributions of CDOM to chlorophyll, respectively. After applying the red tide classification (using the four criteria), the spectral response of the red tide water, which is influenced by pigment concentration, showed different slopes for the blue and green bands (lower slope at blue bands and higher slope at green bands). The opposite result was found for non-red tide water, due to decreasing phytoplankton absorption and increasing detritus/CDOM absorption at blue bands. The results were well matched with the discoloration of water (blue to dark red/brown) and delineated the areal coverage of C. polykrikoides blooms, revealing the nature of spatial and temporal variations in red tides. This simple spectral classification method led to increase user accuracy for C. polykrikoides and non-red tide blooms (>46% and >97%) and provided a more reliable and robust identification of red tides over a wide range of oceanic environments than was possible using chlorophyll a concentration, chlorophyll anomaly, fluorescence analysis, or proposed red tide detection algorithms.     

Is there a stratospheric radiative feedback in global warming simulations?

The radiative impacts of the stratosphere in global warming simulations are investigated using abrupt CO₂ quadrupling experiments of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), with a focus on stratospheric temperature and water vapor. It is found that the stratospheric temperature change has a robust bullhorn-like zonal-mean pattern due to a strengthening of the stratospheric overturning circulation. This temperature change modifies the zonal mean top-of-the-atmosphere energy balance, but the compensation of the regional effects leads to an insignificant global-mean radiative feedback (?0.02 ± 0.04 W m^?2 K^?1). The stratospheric water vapor concentration generally increases, which leads to a weak positive global-mean radiative feedback (0.02 ± 0.01 W m^?2 K^?1). The stratospheric moistening is related to mixing of elevated upper-tropospheric humidity, and, to a lesser extent, to change in tropical tropopause temperature. Our results indicate that the strength of the stratospheric water vapor feedback is noticeably larger in high-top models than in low-top ones. The results here indicate that although its radiative impact as a forcing adjustment is significant, the stratosphere makes a minor contribution to the overall climate feedback in CMIP5 models.     

Winter precipitation variability over Korean Peninsula associated with ENSO

In this study, winter precipitation variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the Korean Peninsula was investigated using a 5-pentad running mean data because significant correlation pattern cannot be revealed using seasonal-mean data. It was found a considerably significant positive correlation between Niño3 sea-surface temperature and precipitation during early winter (from Mid-November to early-December), when the correlation coefficient is close to 0.8 in early-December; the correlation is distinctively weakened during late winter. It is demonstrated that such sudden intraseasonal change in relation to ENSO is associated with the presence of anticyclonic flow over the Kuroshio extension region (Kuroshio anticyclone). In early winter, there is strong southerly wind over the Korean Peninsula, which is induced by the Philippine Sea anticyclone and Kuroshio anticyclone. However, in January, although the Philippine Sea anticyclone develops further, the Kuroshio anticyclone suddenly disappears; as a result, the impact of ENSO is considerably weakened over the Korean Peninsula. These results indicate that the Kuroshio anticyclone during El Niño peak phase plays a critical role by strongly affecting Northeast Asia climate, including the Korean Peninsula. In addition, it is also found that there are distinctive interdecadal changes of the relationship between ENSO and precipitation over the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the strong correlation in early winter is clearer in the recent 30 years than that in the previous period of 1950–1979.     

Anisotropic porothermoelastic solution and hydro‐thermal effects on fracture width in hydraulic fracturing

In this study, the effects of the temperature difference between hydraulic fracturing fluid and rock formation on the time‐dependent evolution of fracture width were investigated using a newly derived one‐dimensional anisotropic porothermoelastic analytical solution. The solution is shown to correctly reproduce existing solutions for special cases and corrections for an earlier publication are provided. An analysis of time‐dependent fracture width evolution using Woodford Shale data was also presented. It was found that when the fracturing fluid has the same temperature as the shale formation, the fracture gradually closes back after the initial opening due to the invasion of the fracturing fluid. Practically, in this scenario, proppants should be pumped into the fracture as soon as possible to obtain maximum fracture conductivity. On the other hand, with a fracturing fluid 60 °C colder than the formation, the thermal contraction of the rock dominates the fracture aperture evolution, resulting in a fracture aperture approximately 70% larger than that produced by the hotter fracturing fluid. Consequently, in this case, it is beneficial to delay proppant placement to take advantage of the widening fractures. Finally, it was found that the fracture aperture is directly controlled by the spacing of natural fractures. Therefore, the presence of natural fractures in the shale formation and their spacing influence not only the type of hydraulic fractures created but also what kind and size of proppants should be used to keep them open. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mapping urban growth of the capital city of Honduras from Landsat data using the impervious surface fraction algorithm

This study developed an impervious surface fraction algorithm (ISFA) for automatic mapping of urban areas from Landsat data. We processed the data for 2001 and 2014 to trace the urbanization of Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras, using a four-step procedure: (1) data pre-processing to perform image reflectance normalization, (2) quantification of impervious surface area (ISA) using ISFA, (3) accuracy assessment of mapping results and (4) change analysis of urban growth. The mapping results compared with the ground reference data confirmed the validity of ISFA for automatic delineation of ISA in the study region. The overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient achieved for 2001 were 92.8% and 0.86, while the values for 2014 were 91.8% and 0.84, respectively. The results of change detection between the classification maps indicated that ISA increased approximately 1956.7 ha from 2001 to 2014, mainly attributing to the increase of the city’s population.