Sensitivity of PBL model predictions to model design and uncertainties in environmental inputs

A simple time-dependent one-dimensional model of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is described and used to examine the degree to which model design decisions affect model output variables. The model's sensitivity to changes in the environmental conditions is also explored. Averages of the surface fluxes, near-ground wind speeds and other PBL properties from 48 h simulations are compared to control runs. The model-calculated surface fluxes are most sensitive, in decreasing order of importance, to the vertical grid spacing, the form of closure between the surface temperature and the atmosphere, the use of vertical diffusivity smoothing, the choice of maximum time step and choice of turbulence closure scheme. These fluxes are relatively insensitive to mixing-length scaling or choice of implicit time step weighting factor. Sensitivity to changes in soil type exceeds any of the design criteria tested. The modeled fluxes are moderately sensitive to small variations in the horizontal pressure gradient, to unsteadiness in the geostrophic wind and to variations in surface roughness. They are relatively insensitive to uncertainties in local vertical velocities and small (25%) variations applied separately to soil thermal diffusivity or heat capacity. The sensitivity of the average PBL depth (Z _i ) to model and environmental changes are similar to those of surface fluxes except thatZ _i is more sensitive to changes in mixing length, albedo and imposed vertical velocity then are the surface fluxes.     

Procida volcanic history: new insights into the evolution of the Phlegraean Volcanic District (Campania region,Italy)

New stratigraphic, major- and trace-element, and Sr-, Nd- and Pb- isotopic data on volcanic deposits older than 14 ka from the island of Procida, Italy, are presented and compared with published analyses from the rest of the Phlegraean Volcanic District (PVD). Procida rocks range in composition from basalt to shoshonite and trachyte and show ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios varying within the ranges 0.70523–0.70678, 0.512539–0.512630, 18.99–19.29, 15.67–15.69 and 39.10–39.39, respectively. The presence of a compositional gap in the range SiO₂=54–59 wt % is evidence of magma bimodality, and suggests that the feeding magmatic system was formed by at least two different reservoirs located at different depths. Geochemical and isotopic variations with increasing differentiation can be explained by fractional crystallization mechanisms, that in some cases were associated with crustal contamination that occurred in both deeper and shallower reservoirs; the most evolved magmas formed in the shallower one. Mixing/mingling processes also occurred. The variation of isotopic composition through time observed both for Procida and for Campi Flegrei and Ischia rocks is evidence of strong affinity between magmas that erupted on the entire PVD until about 40 ka. This indicates that they share a common origin and a common plumbing system. Most of the PVD eruptive centers active until about 40 ka lie within a NE-SW-oriented volcano-tectonic belt extending from the southeastern part of Ischia, through Procida and Torregaveta volcano to the northeastern sector of the present Campi Flegrei caldera. This not only indicates the existence of a link between regional structures and volcanism in the area, but also suggests that PVD magma genesis and evolution were strongly regulated by extensional tectonics. In the last 40 ka the mafic rocks erupted along this extensional structure – from Torregaveta and the islands of Ischia and Procida – indicate that it still represents an important crustal discontinuity that focuses mantle-derived magmas. Procida trachybasalts are enriched in large ion lithophile elements (LILE) and light and middle rare earth elements (LREE and MREE), and show slight negative anomalies in the high field strength elements (HFSE) relative to average MORB. A slight depletion in HREE is present. Trace element and isotope systematics can be referred to a lithospheric mantle source. The lithospheric mantle source carries intra-plate and slab-derived components, the latter probably inherited from a previous subduction event.     

Interference Testing for Atmospheric HOx Measurements by Laser-induced Fluorescence

Accurate OH and HO₂ (collectively called HO_x) measurements by laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) may be contaminated by spurious signals from interfering atmospheric chemicals or from the instrument itself. Interference tests must be conducted to ensure that observed OH signal originates solely from ambient OH and is not due to instrument artifacts. Several tests were performed on the Penn State LIF HO_x instrument, both in the laboratory and in the field. Theseincluded measurements of the instrument's zero signal by using either zero air or perfluoropropylene to remove OH, examination of spectral interferences from naphthalene, sulfur dioxide, and formaldehyde, and tests of interferences by addition of suspected interfering atmospheric chemicals, including ozone, hydrogen peroxide, nitrous acid, formaldehyde, nitric acid, acetone, and organic peroxy radicals (RO₂). All tests lacked evidence ofsignificant interferences for measurements in the atmosphere, including highly polluted urban environments.     

Landslides in Emilia-Romagna region (Italy): strategies for hazard assessment and risk management

In Emilia-Romagna, over 32,000 landslide bodies cover one-fifth of the hilly and mountainous territory. The majority of them originated as earth-flows after the last glacial maximum and grew during the rainiest periods of the Holocene through the superimposition of new earth-flows. Reactivation of these large landslides is the main problem the geologists of Emilia-Romagna are facing now. Intense and/or prolonged precipitation play a major role as triggering factors in reactivating landslide bodies, but also the importance of snowmelt is suggested by the monthly distribution of landslide events. Almost all the present-day landslide activity is due to the reactivation of pre-existing landslide bodies. Consequently, territorial planning and geo-thematic cartography are fundamental tools for the reduction of risk. The Emilia-Romagna geo-thematic cartography (1:10,000) is legally binding and regulates land use in regional, municipal and basin plans.     

A surge of Skobreen, Svalbard

Surging glaciers are common in Svalbard yet relatively few glaciers have been observed during a surge. This paper presents observations of the currently surging glacier Skobreen, in southern Spitsbergen. The study is based on examinations of new and archival photographs and maps. Skobreen, an 18 km² valley glacier terminating into the lower part of the glacier Paulabreen, has not been registered previously as a surging glacier. Skobreen experienced a build-up in its upper part, while there has been a lowering of the surface in the terminal region. Photographs from 1990 show incipient crevassing in the upper part. Photographs from 2003 show a slight advance of the terminus and marginal crevassing, indicating an initiation period of about 15 years for a surge of this glacier. In June 2005 transverse crevassing appeared in the upper part of the glacier, while the middle section moved as a block with strong shear margins and a pronounced drawdown of the ice surface. No traces of a surge front could be seen in the crevasse pattern. However, the crevasse pattern indicates an initiation area in the transition zone between the transverse crevassing in the upper part and the block of ice in the middle region.     

1997年9月26日意大利中部Umbria-marche地震前的水文地质变化

分析了1997年9月26日意大利中部Umbria与marche交界地区的Umbria-marche地震序列引起的水文体系的变化。为了量化水文体系的变化,从地方当局和矿泉水公司收集了地下水位、泉水的流量以及河水流速等的资料,这些资料可以确定异常的影响面积,并且可以通过与从震前几年资料估算出的年平均体系的对比来量化异常的变化,试图对异常进行判定。分析结果表明,两个含水单元,即Umbria-marche山峰和Val-nerina单元,具有紧密的联系,它们都由于水文系统的改变而受到影响。地震前几个月两条河流测量站记录到了异常变化,认为是地震前兆异常。     

Bioaccumulation of radiocaesium in Arctic seals

Seals are high trophic level feeders that bioaccumulate many contaminants to a greater degree than most lower trophic level organisms. Their trophic status in the marine food web and wide-spread distribution make seals useful sentinels of arctic environmental change. The purpose of this investigation is to document the levels and bioaccumulation potential of radiocaesium in high latitude seal species for which data have not previously been available. The study was carried out on harp, ringed, and bearded seals caught north of the island archipelago of Svalbard (82°N) in 1999. The results are then compared with previous studies in order to elucidate factors responsible for bioaccumulation in Arctic seals. Concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs were determined in muscle, liver and kidney samples from a total of 10 juvenile and one adult seal. The mean concentration in muscle samples for all animals was 0.23±0.045 Bq/kg f.w. ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in both liver and kidney samples were near detection limits (≈0.2 Bq/kg f.w.). The results are consistent with previous studies indicating low levels of radiocaesium in Arctic seals in response to a long term trend of decreasing levels of ¹³⁷Cs in the Barents Sea region. Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) estimated for seals from NE Svalbard are low, ranging from 34 to 130. Comparing these values with reported BCFs for Greenland seals from other sectors of the European Arctic, we suggest that the combination of physiological and ecological factors on radiocaesium bioaccumulation is comparable among different Arctic seal populations. The application of this work to Arctic monitoring and assessment programs is discussed.