Climate change in IAP RAS global model taking account of interaction with methane cycle under anthropogenic scenarios of RCP family

Carried out are numerical experiments with the IAP RAS global climate model (IAP RAS CM) under new RCP scenarios of anthropogenic impact for the 18th–21st centuries taking account of the response of the methane emission from the soil to the atmosphere and effects of chemical processes in the atmosphere on the climate changes. The model generally simulates the preindustrial and present-day characteristics of the methane cycle. Methane emissions from the soil to the atmosphere (within the range of 150–160 Mt CH₄/year for the present-day period) reach 170–230 Mt CH₄/year by the late 21st century depending on the scenario of anthropogenic impact. The methane concentration under the most aggressive RCP 8.5 anthropogenic scenario increases up to 3900 ppb by the late 21st century. Under more moderate RCP 4.5 and 6.0 anthropogenic scenarios, it reaches 1850–1980 ppb in the second half of the 21st century and decreases afterwards. Under RCP 2.6 scenario, the methane concentration maximum of 1730 ppb in the atmosphere is reached in the second decade of the 21st century. The taking account of the interaction between the processes in the soils and the climate leads to the additional increase in the methane content in the atmosphere by 10–25% in the 21st century depending on the scenario of anthropogenic impact. The taking account of the methane oxidation in the atmosphere in the case of warming reduces the increase in its concentration by 5–40%. The associated changes in the surface air temperature turn out to be small (less than 0.1 K globally or 4% of the warming expected by the late 21st century).     

Impact of climate changes over the extratropical land on permafrost dynamics under RCP scenarios in the 21st century as simulated by the IAP RAS climate model

Estimates of possible climate changes and cryolithozone dynamics in the 21st century over the Northern Hemisphere land are obtained using the IAP RAS global climate model under the RCP scenarios. Annual mean warming over the northern extratropical land during the 21st century amounts to 1.2–5.3°C depending on the scenario. The area of the snow cover in February amounting currently to 46 million km² decreases to 33–42 million km² in the late 21st century. According to model estimates, the near-surface permafrost in the late 21st century persists in northern regions of West Siberia, in Transbaikalia, and Tibet even under the most aggressive RCP 8.5 scenario; under more moderate scenarios (RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5, and RCP 2.6), it remains in East Siberia and in some high-latitude regions of North America. The total near-surface permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere in the current century decreases by 5.3–12.8 million km² depending on the scenario. The soil subsidence due to permafrost thawing in Central Siberia, Cisbaikalia, and North America can reach 0.5–0.8 m by the late 21st century.     

Temperature trends in the permafrost of the Northern Hemisphere: Comparison of model calculations with observations

We present the results of analysis of numerical calculations of the thermal state of permafrost grounds at different depths using a model of heat and moisture transport in the ground developed at the Oboukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS). For high-latitude regions of Russia, the model-estimated temperature trends in grounds (around 0.3°C/10 years at a depth of 3 m) are quite consistent with empirical estimates for the past few decades.     

Estimating Contributions of Natural Climate Variability Modes and Greenhouse Gases to Surface Temperature Trends in the Southern Hemisphere from Observations

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Contributions of the anthropogenic influence characterized by variations in the atmospheric greenhouse gas radiative forcing and of the key modes of...     

A Comparative Analysis of the Characteristics of Active Fires in the Boreal Forests of Eurasia and North America Based on Satellite Data

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - On the basis of the detection data on active fires from the MODIS satellite instrument in the 2000–2016 period an analysis of the characteristics...     

The radiative and thermal effects of smoke aerosol over the region of Moscow during the summer fires of 2010

The shortwave radiative forcings of smoke aerosol in the cloudless atmosphere during the summer fires of 2010 in European Russia were quantitatively estimated for the land surface and the atmospheric upper boundary from measurement data obtained at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (OIAP ZSS), Russian Academy of Sciences. Variations in the temperature of the surface air layer due to the smoke-induced attenuation of incoming solar radiation were estimated. The most intensive smoke generation in the atmosphere was observed on August 7–9, 2010, when the maximum aerosol optical thickness amounted to more than 4.0 at a wavelength of 550 nm. In this case, the albedo of single aerosol scattering amounted to ∼0.95–0.96 and the asymmetry factor amounted to ∼0.69–0.70. The maximum shortwave radiative forcing of aerosol amounted to about −360 W/m² for the land surface and almost −150 W/m² for the atmospheric upper boundary. During the period of intensive smoke generation, the cooling of the atmospheric surface layer over daylight hours (12 h) amounted, on average, to ∼6°C. The power character of the dependence of the shortwave radiative forcing of aerosol for the land surface on aerosol optical thickness up to its values exceeding 4.0, which was revealed earlier on the basis of data on aerosol optical thickness (up to 1.5) obtained at the OIAP ZSS during the summer forest and peatbog fires of 2002 in the region of Moscow, was supported.     

Global warming mitigation by sulphur loading in the stratosphere: dependence of required emissions on allowable residual warming rate

An approach to mitigate global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied, employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM. The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenic greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860–2100 with additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the twenty-first century. Different ensemble members are constructed by varying values of the parameters governing mass, horizontal distribution and radiative forcing of the stratospheric sulphates. It is obtained that, given a global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, among those studied in this paper latitudinal distributions of geoengineering aerosols, the most efficient one at the global basis is that peaked between 50°N and 70°N and with a somewhat smaller burden in the tropics. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is a little less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000–2010 amount to more than 10 TgS/year in the year 2100. These emissions may be reduced if some warming is allowed to occur in the twenty-first century. For instance, if the global temperature trend S _g in every decade of this century is limited not to exceed 0.10 K/decade (0.15 K/decade), geoengineering emissions of 4–14 TgS/year (2–7 TgS/year) would be sufficient. Even if the global warming is stopped, temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. In addition, for the stabilised global mean surface air temperature, global precipitation decreases by about 10%. If geoengineering emissions are stopped after several decades of implementation, their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period, surface air temperature may grow with a rate of several Kelvins per decade. The results obtained with the IAP RAS CM are further interpreted employing a globally averaged energy–balance climate model. With the latter model, an analytical estimate for sulphate aerosol emissions in the stratosphere required climate mitigation is obtained. It is shown that effective vertical localisation of the imposed radiative forcing is important for geoengineering efficiency.