Transient hysteresis of near-surface permafrost response to external forcing

Estimates of changes in near-surface permafrost (NSP) area S _p relative to change in globally averaged surface air temperature T _g are made by using the global climate model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS (IAP RAS CM). For ensemble of runs forced by scenarios constructed as return-to-preindustrial continuations of the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios family, a possibility of transient hysteresis in dependence of S _p versus T _g is exhibited: in some temperature range which depends on imposed scenario of external forcing, NSP area is larger, at the same global mean surface air temperature, in a warming climate than in a cooling climate. This hysteresis is visible more clearly for scenarios with higher concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in comparison to those in which this concentration is lower. Hysteresis details are not sensitive to the type of the prescribed continuation path which is used to return the climate to the preindustrial state. The multiple-valued dependence of S _p on T _g arises due to dependence of soil state in the regions of extra-tropical wetlands and near the contemporary NSP boundaries on sign of external climatic forcing. To study the dependence of permafrost hysteresis on amplitude and temporal scale of external forcing, additional model runs are performed. These runs are forced by idealised scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ content varying, depending on run, with periods from 100 to 1,000 year and with different amplitudes. It is shown that the above-mentioned hysteresis is related to the impact of phase transitions of soil water on apparent inertia of the system as well as to the impact of soil state on atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation transfer in the atmosphere.     

Analytical Conditions for the Formation of Arctic Amplification in the Earth’s Climate System

Doklady Earth Sciences - Analytical conditions for estimating the contribution of various internal and external factors to the formation of Arctic (polar) amplification under warming of the...     

Study of the mutual influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation processes and the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations

On the basis of the nonlinear techniques for the estimation of coupling between oscillatory systems from time series, we investigate the dynamics of climatic modes characterizing global and Northern Hemisphere (NH) processes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation indices and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices are analyzed in terms of the most reliable data from 1950 through 2004 and earlier data since the 19th century. These indices characterize changes in NH atmospheric pressure (specifically, sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic and NH extratropical latitudes as a whole) and in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure to which the strongest variations of global surface temperature and global climate on interannual time scales and of regional climatic anomalies in the NH are linked. The methods used are based on phase-dynamics modeling and nonlinear prediction models (a nonlinear version of Granger causality). From both methods and various ENSO indices, the inference about the ENSO effect on the NAO during the latter half of the 20th century and in the early 21st century is made with confidence probability of at least 0.95. The influence is characterized by a time delay of about two years. No inverse influence is found with a similar degree of reliability. Results of estimating the coupling between the ENSO and the NAO depend on the type of index that is used to describe the NAO. The ENSO effect on the NAO is detected with sufficient confidence when the NAO index is chosen to be a larger scale characteristic. However, when a more local index of the NAO is used, no statistically significant coupling to the ENSO is found. Increasing the length of the analyzed ENSO and NAO series (over more than 100 yr) does not lead to any more reliable detection of coupling. Analysis of the data for different time intervals during 1950–2004 has revealed a strengthening of the ENSO effect on the NAO, although this inference is not reliable.     

Contribution of Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to Surface Air Temperature Trends

The contributions of radiative forcing of greenhouse gases (GHG) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to the trends in global surface air temperature (GST) and surface air temperature for different latitude bands are estimated. Instrumental observational data obtained since the middle of the 19th century and three-component autoregressive models are used. Characteristics of influences of both factors on GST (Wiener–Granger causality) are obtained. The contribution of AMO over the length intervals of 15–30 years appears comparable in absolute value to the contribution of GHG and sometimes even exceeds it, while its contribution over 60-year and longer periods is insignificant. During the recent decades, GHG contribute stronger to the trends of GST and tropical surface air temperature, while their contribution to the trends in surface air temperature in the middle and high latitudes is smaller.     

Satellite Monitoring of Wildfires and Emissions into the Atmosphere of Combustion Products in Russia: Relation to Atmospheric Blockings

Doklady Earth Sciences - Using satellite and reanalysis data, estimates of the significant relationship between the wildfire areas and associated pyrogenic emissions of combustion products with...     

Connections of Precipitable Water Vapor and Total Ozone Anomalies over European Russia with the North Atlantic Oscillation: Specific Features of Summer 2010

Based on the measurements of precipitable water vapor (PWV) and total column ozone (TCO) from the MODIS satellite instruments (Aqua/Terra platforms), the connections between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the anomalies in PWV and TCO over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 are analyzed. It is found that the PWV (TCO) anomalies over the northern ER in summer 2010 positively (negatively) correlated with the NAO, and the local correlations reached 0.68 (–0.55). The physical mechanisms of the correlations are discussed. A comparative analysis of the relationships between the NAO and the regional PWV and TCO anomalies over ER during the summer seasons of 2000–2015 is carried out.     

Estimating climate changes in the northern hemisphere in the 21st century under alternative scenarios of anthropogenic forcing

Possible changes in the climate characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere in the 21st century are estimated using a climate model (developed at the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (OIAP), Russian Academy of Sciences) under different scenarios of variations in the atmospheric contents of greenhouse gases and aerosols, including those formed at the OIAP on the basis of SRES emission scenarios (group I) and scenarios (group II) developed at the Moscow Power Engineering Institute (MPEI). Over the 21st century, the global annual mean warming at the surface amounts to 1.2?C2.6°C under scenarios I and 0.9?C1.2°C under scenarios II. For all scenarios II, starting from the 2060s, a decrease is observed in the rate of increase in the global mean annual near-surface air temperature. The spatial structures of variations in the mean annual near-surface air temperature in the 21st century, which have been obtained for both groups of scenarios (with smaller absolute values for scenarios II), are similar. Under scenarios I, within the extratropical latitudes, the mean annual surface air temperature increases by 3?C7°C in North America and by 3?C5°C in Eurasia in the 21st century. Under scenarios II, the near-surface air temperature increases by 2?C4°C in North America and by 2?C3°C in Eurasia. An increase in the total amount of precipitation by the end of the 21st century is noted for both groups of scenarios; the most significant increase in the precipitation rate is noted for the land of the Northern Hemisphere. By the late 21st century, the total area of the near-surface permafrost soils of the land of the Northern Hemisphere decreases to 3.9?C9.5 10⁶ km² for scenarios I and 9.7?C11.0 × 10⁶ km² for scenarios II. The decrease in the area of near-surface permafrost soils by 2091?C2100 (as compared to 2001?C2010) amounts to approximately 65% for scenarios I and 40% for scenarios II. By the end of the 21st century, in regions of eastern Siberia, in which near-surface permafrost soils are preserved, the characteristic depths of seasonal thawing amount to 0.5?C2.5 m for scenarios I and 1?C2 m for scenarios II. In western Siberia, the depth of seasonal thawing amounts to 1?C2 m under both scenarios I and II.     

Specific features of the 2010 summer heat formation in the European territory of Russia in the context of general climate changes and climate anomalies

Specific features of the extreme summer heat of 2010 in the European part of Russia are analyzed against the background of global and regional climate changes taking into account antropogenic influences and natural anomalies related, in particular, to the El Niño/La Niña phenomena. The tendencies of the characteristics of the activity of blocking anticyclones (blockings) responsible for the formation of drought regimes and the increase in the fire hazard at midlatitudes are estimated in connection with climate changes.