Teleseismic Source Parameters of the Rigan County Earthquakes and Evidence for a New Earthquake Fault

Two medium-sized earthquakes occurred on 20 December 2010 and 27 January 2011 in Rigan County, Kerman Province, southeastern Iran. According to the dislocation grid search method results, the first event was nearly strike-slip including reverse component (strike 115°, dip 50°, and rake ?5°) whereas the second event had some amount of reverse component (strike 125°, dip 75°, and rake ?5°). Based on synthetic Green’s function deconvolution and aftershock distribution, the down-dip-propagated rupture migrated toward southeast districts with low population distribution, confirming the reason for low casualties. Meanwhile, the aftershock distribution indicates the existence of a new earthquake fault for which we suggest the name “Rigan earthquake fault.” However, the same aftershock distribution indicates that the second mainshock was inevitably triggered by the first one, most probably along the continuation of the Bam earthquake fault.     

Geodetic deformation vs. seismic strain deduced by historical earthquakes across the Alborz Mountains

Historical seismicity is used in order to map spatial distribution of seismic moment released by past earthquakes and to compare strain rate deduced from seismicity to those measured by geodetic GPS survey. Spatial analyses are performed on the seismicity of northern boundary of Central Iranian Block which coincides with the Alborz Mountains. This belt has been responsible for several catastrophic earthquakes in the past. In this study, the records of historical and instrumental earthquakes in the Alborz Mountains are used to calculate and plot geographical distribution of seismic moment released in time. A two-dimensional distribution function is proposed and used here to spread seismic moment along causative tectonic features. Using accumulated seismic moment, average slip rates across active faults are estimated for 32 sub-zones along the Alborz Mountains and western Kopet Dag. Seismic moment released by historical and recent earthquakes on this belt accounts for slip rate of 3–5 mm/year which is in good agreement with the geodetic vectors recently deduced from GPS survey in this region. The study also reveals geographical variations of slip rates along some 900 km length of this zone based on seismic history. The results are compared against finding from similar study in this region. Portions of Central and Eastern Alborz show lower seismic strain rate which could imply aseismic motion or overdue earthquakes. Completeness of historical earthquake catalogue and its reliability with regard to earthquake magnitudes, locations, and rupturing systems are among many plausible factors controlling the credibility of such results. Therefore, any conclusions derived from these results remain as reliable as the data and assumptions used for the analyses.     

Development and application of a stochastic optimization model for groundwater management: crop pattern and conjunctive use consideration

The need for irrigation water in arid and semi-arid regions is mostly supplied by groundwater. Furthermore, the agricultural development in these areas is not generally based on a comprehensive plan, which can cause aquifers depletion. On the other hand, to properly manage an aquifer and to have an optimal crop plan, the stochastic nature of the different parameters of a groundwater system such as groundwater recharge and water demands should be taken into consideration. In this paper, we develop an explicit stochastic optimization model for Firouzabad aquifer in Iran. This formulation is based on the first and second moment analysis for groundwater head which has been initially proposed for surface water resources management by Fletcher and Ponnambalam. We extend the model to create a new random withdrawal policy for conjunctive use setting in which the randomness in available precipitation is taken into account. The interesting point is that the model provides the respective probabilities of shortage and surplus without imposing the extra decision variables into the optimization model. A genetic-based algorithm is used to solve the stochastic nonlinear and non-convex formulation. The outcome results indicate that the current crop pattern should be changed, that is, the allocated areas of some crops have to be meaningfully reduced. Finally, to validate our model efficiency, we demonstrate that how much close the statistical characteristics obtained from the optimization model are to those estimated from the Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the optimal benefits obtained using the proposed optimization model are as suitable as the benefits achieved using the corresponding Monte Carlo-based optimization model.     

Predicting seismic permanent displacement of soil walls under surcharge based on limit analysis approach

Seismic permanent displacement of the soil walls plays an important role in design of these structures. Due to the increase in growth of urban areas and the limitations in use of flat grounds, many structures are built near slopes and retaining walls. During earthquakes, these structures can apply an additional surcharge on the wall. The intensity and location of the surcharge is of considerable importance on the seismic displacements of the soil wall. In this study, by using the limit analysis and upper bound theorem, seismic permanent displacement of the soil wall under surcharge has been analyzed. Thus, a formulation is presented for calculating the yield acceleration and seismic displacement for different surcharge conditions. The effect of seismic acceleration, surcharge intensity, its location and soil properties is investigated. A parameter called the “displacement coefficient” is proposed, and is a potential modification for Newmark’s sliding-block method.     

Effective calculation of gravity effects of uniform triangle polyhedra

Uniform tetrahedra are commonly used elementary bodies for gravity calculations from which arbitrary polyhedra can be composed. A simple derivation of the gravity effect is presented for the apex P of the tetrahedron expanded from P to an arbitrarily oriented plane triangle. Integration of its potential effect in a rotated coordinate system applies vector algebra and renders the anomalous potential depending on the distance of P over the triangle plain and a function of the triangle coordinates. Partial differentiation by moving P infinitesimally in z-direction leads to two terms, a simple and a complex one; they can be understood as describing the same difference from two points of view: leaving P at the apex of the changed polyhedron or moving P off the unchanged polyhedron. Both views imply the same shape change and the sum over the polyhedron is thus numerically equal. Hence we need to calculate only the one of the terms of the differential which is simpler. The calculation of the gravity effect is numerically simplified and more stable. This has been tested for many models and is demonstrated by two examples.