Inelastic seismic demand estimation of wood-frame houses subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences

An active aftershock sequence, triggered by a large mainshock, can cause major destruction to urban cities. It is important to quantify the aftershock effects in terms of nonlinear responses of realistic structural models. For this purpose, this study investigates the aftershock effects on seismic fragility of conventional wood-frame houses in south-western British Columbia, Canada, using an extensive set of real mainshock-aftershock earthquake records. For inelastic seismic demand estimation, cloud analysis and incremental dynamic analysis are considered. A series of nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out by considering different seismic input cases and different analysis approaches. The analysis results indicate that consideration of aftershocks leads to 5–20 % increase of the median inelastic seismic demand curves when a moderate degree of structural response is induced. The findings of this investigation facilitate the extension of the existing approaches for inelastic seismic demand estimation to incorporate the aftershock effects.     

Pipe–soil interaction for segmented buried pipelines subjected to dip faults

This paper describes an investigation of pipe–soil interaction equations suggested by currently used pipeline seismic design codes and the applicability of these equations to segmented pipelines. The results of computer‐aided analyses were compared to results obtained in full‐scale experiments on a segmented ductile iron pipeline 93 mm in diameter and 15 m in length. The pipeline was installed 600 mm below the ground surface in a sandy soil compacted to two different subgrade reaction values. The type of fault considered was a reverse fault with an intersection angle of 60° with the pipeline, and the fault movement was a total of 350 mm in three same steps in the fault trace direction. The findings of this study demonstrate the necessity of considering the nature of soil behavior in pipe–soil interaction equations and the effects of connection joints on the integrated response of pipelines to fault‐induced ground deformations. A new combination of equations constituting a direction‐wise selection from among the equations proposed by currently used guidelines is introduced as a new series to describe pipe–soil interaction for segmented pipelines and is verified using the results of full‐scale experiments. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The El Salvador and Philippines Tsunamis of August 2012: Insights from Sea Level Data Analysis and Numerical Modeling

We studied two tsunamis from 2012, one generated by the El Salvador earthquake of 27 August (Mw 7.3) and the other generated by the Philippines earthquake of 31 August (Mw 7.6), using sea level data analysis and numerical modeling. For the El Salvador tsunami, the largest wave height was observed in Baltra, Galapagos Islands (71.1 cm) located about 1,400 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 9 and 19 min. Numerical modeling indicated that most of the tsunami energy was directed towards the Galapagos Islands, explaining the relatively large wave height there. For the Philippines tsunami, the maximum wave height of 30.5 cm was observed at Kushimoto in Japan located about 2,700 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 8, 12 and 29 min. Numerical modeling showed that a significant part of the far-field tsunami energy was directed towards the southern coast of Japan. Fourier and wavelet analyses as well as numerical modeling suggested that the dominant period of the first wave at stations normal to the fault strike is related to the fault width, while the period of the first wave at stations in the direction of fault strike is representative of the fault length.     

Inelastic displacement ratios for soil–structure systems allowed to uplift

The simultaneous effects of soil–structure interaction, foundation uplift and inelastic behavior of the superstructure on total displacement response of soil–structure systems are investigated. The superstructure is modeled as an equivalent single‐degree‐of‐freedom system with bilinear behavior mounted on a rigid foundation resting on distributed tensionless Winkler springs and dampers. It is well known that the behavior of soil–structure systems can be well described using a limited number of nondimensional parameters. Here, by introducing two new parameters, the concept is extended to inelastic soil–structure systems in which the foundation is allowed to uplift. An extensive parametric study is conducted for a wide range of the key parameters through nonlinear time history analyses. It is shown that while uplifting soil–structure systems experience excessive displacements, in comparison with systems that are not allowed to uplift, ductility demand in the superstructure generally decreases owing to foundation uplift. A new inelastic displacement ratio (IDR) is proposed in conjunction with a nonlinear static analysis of uplifting soil–structure systems. Simplified expressions are also provided to estimate the proposed IDR. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Future change in the frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulated by the PRECIS regional climate model

Climate change caused by anthropogenic activities has generated a variety of research focusing on investigating the past climate, predicting the future climate and quantifying the change in climate extreme events by using different climate models. Climate extreme events are valuable to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on human activities, agriculture and economy and are also useful to monitor the climate change on global scale. Here, a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation is used to study the future variations in the temperature extreme indices, particularly change in frequency of warm and cold spells duration over Pakistan. The analyses are done on the basis of simulating two 30 years simulations with the Hadley Center’s RCM PRECIS, at a horizontal resolution of 50 km. Simulation for the period 1961–1990 represents the recent climate and simulation for the period 2071–2100 represents the future climate. These simulations are driven by lateral boundary conditions from HadAM3P GCM of Hadley centre UK. For the validation of model, observed mean, maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1961–1990 at all the available stations in Pakistan are first averaged and are then compared with the PRECIS averaged grid-box data. Also the observed monthly gridded data set of Climate Research Unit (UK) data is used to validate the model. Temperature indices in the base period as well as in future are then calculated and the corresponding change is observed. Percentile based spatial change of temperature shows that in summer, increase in daily minimum temperature is more as compared to the increase of daily maximum temperature whereas in winter, the change in maximum temperature is high. The occurrence of annual cold spells shows significantly decreasing trend while for warm spells there is slight increasing trend over Pakistan.     

The off-site implications of deforestation on sedimentation rates and pollution in Abkenar open water (Anzali Lagoon,Caspian Sea) using radionuclide techniques and sediment quality indices

Abkenar open water(AOW)has a 35 km²distribution and is the largest part of the Anzali Lagoon in the southern coastal zone of the Caspian Sea.The effects of deforestation in the upstream basin of the AOW were assessed by measuring the rate of sedimentation,sediment contamination,and ecological risk for aquatic life and end-users using radioisotopes Cesium-137 and Lead-210.The chronology of the AOW sediment column was studied using the Constant Rate of Supply model.Correlations between environmental changes and the sedimentary regime of the study area highlight the contribution of the AOW authorized international and local wood harvesting companies pre-and-post 1950 in the catchment in terms of the rate of sediment supply and the influx of toxic metals.Historical evidence shows that two specific layers formed during World Wars I and II with the mean rates of 0.185±0.04(±STD)and 0.32±0.02 kg/(m²·y),respectively.The highest influx of alkali elements and toxic metals(nickel,cadmium,lead,zinc,and copper)into the basin occurred in 1945.Two layers of gray mud(16-50 cm)and organic-rich dark loss mud(0-16 cm)correlated well with the programmed wood harvesting projects.These layers accumulated from 1953 to 2000 with a mean rate of 0.6±0.2 and 2±0.7 kg/(m²·y).Thus,aquatic life and end-users have been exposed to moderate to extremely high levels of toxic metals and a moderate level of contamination since the 1950s.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping using precipitation data,Mazandaran Province,north of Iran

A tropical cyclone was formed over central northern Africa near Egypt, Libya and Crete, and it moved and deepened toward the north–northeast; meanwhile, the storm destroyed many regions in the west, southwest and central of Turkey. The cyclone carried huge dust from the north of Africa to Turkey and reduced the visibility to less than 1 km and raised the wind speed. As a result of severe storm, some meteorological stations have new extreme values that the strongest wind speed measured was 81 knots in the central region of Turkey. Medicane with wind speed 81 knots especially over Turkey is a rare event. This devastating cyclone carried exceptionally very strong winds (>80 kts) with favorable conditions to follow windstorm conceptual model. The cyclone caused adverse conditions such as excessive injuries, fatal incidents and forest fires. Mesoscale vortex formed and affected particularly the middle and western regions of Turkey. The vertical thermodynamic structure of storm is compared with April values of 40 years of datasets over Istanbul. Moreover, four different winds {measurement masts} of Istanbul Atatürk Airport are used for the microscale analysis of different meteorological parameters during deepened pressure level. In addition, divergence and vorticity of stormy weather are discussed in details during the effective time period of storm by solving equations and validated using ERA-40 reanalysis. We obtained many monitoring data sources such as ground base, radar, radiosonde and satellite display the values of the intensity of wind speed caused by cyclones of tropics have revealed similarities.