The spatial correlation between earthquakes and landslides in Hokkaido (Japan), a GIS-based analysis of the past and the future

Although earthquakes are thought to be one of the factors responsible for the occurrence of landslides in Hokkaido, there exist no enough records which can allow correlating many of the old slope failures in the island with earthquakes. In the absence of these records, an attempt was done in this study to use the abundance, frequency, magnitude, depth, and distribution of historical earthquakes to deduce that many of the slope failures in the region were triggered by strong and continuous seismicity. The determination of the zones of influences of selected earthquakes using an existing empirical function has also supported this conclusion. Moreover, the use of a 10% probability of exceedance of earthquake intensity in 50 years, and the geological and slope maps has allowed preparing a landslide hazard map which explains the role of future earthquakes in the formation of slope failures. The result indicates a high probability of occurrences of landslides in the hilly regions of the southeastern part of Hokkaido due to expected strong seismicity and earthquake intensities in these areas. On the other hand, the low level of intensity in the north has given rise to low probability of landslide hazard. There are also places in the center of the island and high intensity regions in the east where the probability of landslide hazard was influenced by the contribution of the geological and slope maps.     

Comparative analysis of contributing parameters for rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal

In the Himalaya, people live in widely spread settlements and suffer more from landslides than from any other type of natural disaster. The intense summer monsoons are the main factor in triggering landslides. However, the relations between landslides and slope hydrology have not been a focal topic in Himalayan landslide research. This paper deals with the contributing parameters for the rainfall-triggered landslides which occurred during an extreme monsoon rainfall event on 23 July 2002, in the south-western hills of Kathmandu valley, in the Lesser Himalaya, Nepal. Parameters such as bedrock geology, geomorphology, geotechnical properties of soil, and clay mineralogy are described in this paper. Landslide modeling was performed in SEEP/W and SLOPE/W to understand the relationship of pore water pressure variations in soil layers and to determine the spatial variation of landslide occurrence. Soil characteristics, low angle of internal friction of fines in soil, medium range of soil permeability, presence of clay minerals in soil, bedrock hydrogeology, and human intervention were found to be the main contributing parameters for slope failures in the region.     

Motion of iron sulfide inclusions inside a shock‐melted chondrule

Abstract— We calculated the trajectories of molten spheres of iron sulfide inclusions inside a melted chondrule during the nebular shock wave heating. Our calculations included the effects of high‐velocity internal flow in the melted chondrule and apparent gravitational force caused by the drag force of nebular gas flow. The calculated results show that large iron sulfide inclusions, which have radii 0.23 times larger than those of the parent chondrules, must reach the surface of the melted chondrule within a short period of time (<<1 s). This effect will provide us with very important information about chondrule formation by nebular shock wave heating.     

Does the gas flow through a porous dust aggregate help its growth in a protoplanetary disk?

Sekiya and Takeda [2003, Earth Planets Space 55, 263-269] showed that the hydrodynamic gas flow around a dust aggregate larger than the mean free path of gas molecules prevents the growth of the body. In contrast to Wurm et al. [2004, Astrophys. J. 606, 983-987], we argue that this conclusion is not altered even if we take account of the effect of the flow through a porous dust aggregate.     

GIS-based weights-of-evidence modelling of rainfall-induced landslides in small catchments for landslide susceptibility mapping

Landslide susceptibility mapping is a vital tool for disaster management and planning development activities in mountainous terrains of tropical and subtropical environments. In this paper, the weights-of-evidence modelling was applied, within a geographical information system (GIS), to derive landslide susceptibility map of two small catchments of Shikoku, Japan. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of weights-of-evidence modelling in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps in relatively small catchments having an area less than 4 sq km. For the study area in Moriyuki and Monnyu catchments, northeast Shikoku Island in west Japan, a data set was generated at scale 1:5,000. Relevant thematic maps representing various factors (e.g. slope, aspect, relief, flow accumulation, soil depth, soil type, land use and distance to road) that are related to landslide activity were generated using field data and GIS techniques. Both catchments have homogeneous geology and only consist of Cretaceous granitic rock. Thus, bedrock geology was not considered in data layering during GIS analysis. Success rates were also estimated to evaluate the accuracy of landslide susceptibility maps and the weights-of-evidence modelling was found useful in landslide susceptibility mapping of small catchments.     

Spatio-temporal evolution of Coulomb stress in the Pacific slab inverted from the seismicity rate change and its tectonic interpretation in Hokkaido, Northern Japan

We estimated spatio-temporal evolution of Coulomb stress within the subducted Pacific slab in Hokkaido from the analysis of seismicity rate change. For this purpose we used earthquake catalog from the Institute of Seismology and Volcanology (ISV), Hokkaido University for the period 1993/4/1–2006/12/31 after relocating to compensate location errors due to the heterogeneous P- and S-wave structure beneath Hokkaido. We found that spatial pattern of Coulomb stress change inverted from the seismicity rate change is comparable with static change in Coulomb stress estimated from dislocation models. Our results and analyses reveal important insights on spatio-temporal pattern of deformation of the subducted Pacific slab in terms of Coulomb stress change. We found that the 2003 Tokachi Oki earthquake (Mw = 8.0) pervasively perturbed Coulomb stress in a regional scale with a significant impact to trigger the 2004 Kushiro Oki earthquake. The 2004 Kushiro Oki earthquake (Mw = 7.0) is another significant stressing event that changed the pattern of Coulomb stress in the area. We found that stressing events with magnitude smaller than 7.0 has minimal impact on Coulomb stress change in the Pacific slab. Similarly, comparatively deep focused large earthquakes could not change Coulomb stress significantly. Further the pattern of Coulomb stress change after the 2003 Tokachi Oki earthquake correlates the pattern of afterslip distribution in Hokkaido.     

Using El Niño/Southern Oscillation Climate Data to Predict Rice Production in Indonesia

Despite the strong signal of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to seasonal rice production and food security in the region have not been well developed or widely used in a policy context. This study successfully measures the connections among sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and rice production in Indonesia during the past three decades. Regression results show particularly strong connections on Java, where 55% of the country's rice is grown. Two-thirds of the interannual variance in rice plantings and 40% of the interannual variance in rice production during the main (wet) season on Java are explained by year-to-year fluctuations in SSTAs measured 4 and 8 months in advance, respectively. These effects are cumulative; during strong El Niño years, production shortfalls in the wet season are not made up later in the crop year. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative predictions of ENSO's effects on rice harvests can provide an additional tool for managing food security in one of the world's most populous and important rice-producing countries.     

Volcanism in the Sumisu Rift, I. Major element, volatile, and stable isotope geochemistry

A bimodal volcanic suite with KAr ages of 0.05–1.40 Ma was collected from the Sumisu Rift using alvin. These rocks are contemporaneous with island arc tholeiite lavas of the Izu-Ogasawara arc 20 km to the east, and provide a present day example of volcanism associated with arc rifting and back-arc basin initiation. Major element geochemistry of the basalts is most similar to that of basalts found in other, more mature back-arc basins, which indicates that back-arc basins need not begin their magmatic evolution with lavas bearing strong arc signatures.Volatile concentrations distinguish Sumisu Rift basalts from island arc basalts and MORB. H₂O contents, which are at least four times greater than in MORB, suppress plagioclase crystallization. This suppression results in a more mafic fractionating assemblage, which prevents Al₂O₃ depletion and delays the initiation of Fe₂O_3^(tot) and TiO₂ enrichment. However, unlike arc basalts,Fe^3+/ΣFe ratios are only slightly higher than in MORB and are insufficient to cause magnetite saturation early enough to suppress Fe₂O_3^(tot) and TiO₂ enrichment. Thus, major element trends are more similar to those of MORB than arcs.H₂O, CO₂ and S are undersaturated relative to pure phase solubility curves, indicating exsolution of an H₂O-rich mixed gas phase. HighH₂O/S, highδD, and low (MORB-like)δ³⁴S ratios are considered primary and distinctive of the back-arc basin setting.     

Seasonal changes in the mesozooplankton biomass and community structure in subarctic and subtropical time-series stations in the western North Pacific

Seasonal changes in mesozooplankton biomass and their community structures were observed at time-series stations K2 (subarctic) and S1 (subtropical) in the western North Pacific Ocean. At K2, the maximum biomass was observed during the spring when primary productivity was still low. The annual mean biomasses in the euphotic and 200- to 1000-m layers were 1.39 (day) and 2.49 (night) g C m^?2 and 4.00 (day) and 3.63 (night) g C m^?2, respectively. Mesozooplankton vertical distribution was bimodal and mesopelagic peak was observed in a 200- to 300-m layer; it mainly comprised dormant copepods. Copepods predominated in most sampling layers, but euphausiids were dominant at the surface during the night. At S1, the maximum biomass was observed during the spring and the peak timing of biomass followed those of chlorophyll a and primary productivity. The annual mean biomasses in the euphotic and 200- to 1000-m layers were 0.10 (day) and 0.21 (night) g C m^?2 and 0.47 (day) and 0.26 (night) g C m^?2, respectively. Copepods were dominant in most sampling layers, but their mean proportion was lower than that in K2. Mesozooplankton community characteristics at both sites were compared with those at other time-series stations in the North Pacific and with each other. The annual mean primary productivities and sinking POC fluxes were equivalent at both sites; however, mesozooplankton biomasses were higher at K2 than at S1. The difference of biomasses was probably caused by differences of individual carbon losses, population turnover rates, and trophic structures of communities between the two sites.