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EMD方法在广西夏季降水量预测中的应用

对广西夏季降水量进行EMD分解后,利用均生函数相关法,比较不同IMF分量组合建模的预测,不同组合试验预测显示,用前二个IMF分量组合建模预测是最佳的组合方案。经对2001—2010年共10年广西夏季降水量实际预测检验表明,趋势预测准确率达70%以上,对夏季降水量预测较有参考价值。为基层台站的气候预测及服务提供一个客观预测方法。     

夏季贝加尔湖南侧环流异常的前兆信号

利用1978—2012年NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,对夏季贝加尔湖南侧环流异常的前兆信号进行分析。结果表明:前期冬季印度尼西亚到西太平洋地区对流与夏季贝加尔湖南侧反气旋式环流异常存在一致的变化,为预测夏季贝加尔湖南侧环流异常的前兆信号之一。即当前期冬季印度尼西亚到西太平洋地区对流活动偏强时,夏季对流区北抬至青藏高原西侧,进而有利于贝加尔湖南侧反气旋式环流异常的发生和维持。但是,进一步研究表明,夏季西印度洋对流活动异常将干扰青藏高原及其西侧的对流上升运动对贝加尔湖环流的影响。当夏季西印度洋对流偏强时,前期冬季印度尼西亚到西太平洋对流和夏季青藏高原西侧对流变化表现出不一致。偏强的西印度洋对流将干扰青藏高原及其西侧的对流上升运动对贝加尔湖环流的影响,进而不利于贝加尔湖南侧反气旋式环流异常的形成。当夏季西印度洋对流异常弱时,前期冬季印度尼西亚到西太平洋地区的对流可能引起夏季贝加尔湖南侧环流异常,两者呈现一致的变化;但当夏季西印度洋对流强盛时,将可能改变上述两者的变化关系。     

The distribution of chlorophyll a and its influencing factors in different regions of the Bering Sea

The distribution of chlorophyll a(Chl a) and its relationships with physical and chemical parameters in different regions of the Bering Sea were discussed in July 2010. The results showed the seawater column Chl a concentrations were 13.41–553.89 mg/m2 and the average value was 118.15 mg/m2 in the study areas. The horizontal distribution of Chl a varied remarkably from basin to shelf in the Bering Sea. The regional order of Chl a concentrations from low to high was basin, slope, outer shelf, inner shelf, and middle shelf. The vertical distribution of Chl a was grouped mainly from single-peak type in basin, slope, outer shelf, and middle shelf, where the deep Chl a maxima(DCM) layer was observed at 25–50 m, 30–35 m, 36–44 m, and 37–47 m, respectively. The vertical distribution of Chl a mainly had three basic patterns: standard single-peak type, surface maximum type, and bottom maximum type in the inner shelf. The analysis also showed that the transportation of ocean currents may control the distribution of Chl a, and the effects were not simple in the basin of the Bering Sea. There was a positive correlation between Chl a and temperature, but no significant correlation between Chl a and nutrients. The Bering Sea slope was an area deeply influenced by slope current. Silicate was the factor that controlled the distribution of Chl a within parts of the water in the slope. Light intensity was an important environmental factor in controlling seawater column Chl a in the shelf, where Chl a was limited by nitrate rather than phosphate within the upper water. Meanwhile, there was a positive relationship between Chl a and salinity. Algal blooms broke out at Sta. B6 of the southwestern St. Lawrence Island and Stas F6 and F11 in the middle of the Bering Strait.     

南海北部深水区新生代岩浆岩分布规律及其与海底地质灾害的相关性

前人对南海北部新生代陆缘盆地结构、构造样式和期次等做了大量的研究工作,但对于具体体现内动力过程的岩浆活动关注较少,尤其是北部深水区的研究鲜有涉及。本文基于二维地震剖面的解译分析,将南海北部新生代岩浆岩划分为3个集中分布区:琼东南-西沙区、神狐区和东沙区。各区域岩浆岩的产出状态有所差异,其中琼东南-西沙区岩浆岩的平面展布规律性极强,主要受右行右阶的走滑断裂控制;神狐区岩浆岩位于NW向与NE向断裂的交汇处,侵位空间受先存断裂制约;东沙区岩浆岩的产生与东沙运动期间区域伸展过程有直接关系。作为内动力的表征,岩浆作用对于海底地形地貌具有重要的改造作用,与活动断裂、海底滑坡、浅层气等海底地质灾害也具有成因上的关联。     

以黑体为目标的能见度参考标准试验研究

黑体为目标的能见度测量是从科西米德定律出发,通过工业相机对黑体目标物进行拍摄,建立黑体和背景天空的数学模型,求得能见度。分析表明:当能见度小于30 km,黑体黑度和CCD(change-coupled device)工业相机的面非均匀性对该方法测得的能见度造成的误差约为3.7%。该方法与前向散射能见度仪测量进行对比,能见度变化趋势上具有一致性;但在高能见度时,黑体能见度测量值大于前向散射能见度测量值,低能见度时,黑体测量值小于前向散射能见度测量值。     

大量气象数据小文件自适应优化传输

为满足气象实时资料传输中大量气象数据小文件的高时效传输需求,对其中的数据传输服务进行优化,提出一种基于实时网络状况的自适应数据传输优化方法。该方法采用优化网络传输协议并使用文件压缩技术,通过获取网络传输线路上的实时参数,实时调整压缩参数和网络传输参数以优化传输性能。在自适应压缩时,通过试验分析和归纳,确立了气象数据小文件标准为文件小于50 KB;根据网络实时状况,设计了基于实时网络状况自适应调整压缩等级的算法。在自适应传输参数调优中,研究了TCP缓冲区大小和TCP并发连接数在GridFTP协议中的重要性,针对实时网络状况,分别设计了自适应调整TCP缓冲区大小和TCP并发连接数的算法,算法提升传输性能65%。对以上提出各自适应参数调整算法进行试验验证表明,融合压缩和网络传输的自适应调优方法能显著提升气象小数据文件的传输性能近500倍。     

Turbulent flux observations and modelling over a shallow lake and a wet grassland in the Nam Co basin,Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau plays an important role in the global water cycle and is strongly influenced by climate change. While energy and matter fluxes have been more intensely studied over land surfaces, a large proportion of lakes have either been neglected or parameterised with simple bulk approaches. Therefore, turbulent fluxes were measured over wet grassland and a shallow lake with a single eddy-covariance complex at the shoreline in the Nam Co basin in summer 2009. Footprint analysis was used to split observations according to the underlying surface, and two sophisticated surface models were utilised to derive gap-free time series. Results were then compared with observations and simulations from a nearby eddy-covariance station over dry grassland, yielding pronounced differences. Observations and footprint integrated simulations compared well, even for situations with flux contributions including grassland and lake. The accessibility problem for EC measurements on lakes can be overcome by combining standard meteorological measurements at the shoreline with model simulations, only requiring representative estimates of lake surface temperature.     

Spectrum Analysis of Wind Profiling Radar Measurements

Unlike previous studies on wind turbulence spectrum in the planetary boundary layer, this investigation focuses on high-altitude （1-5 km） wind energy spectrum and turbulence spectrum under various weather conditions. A fast Fourier transform （FFT） is used to calculate the wind energy and turbulence spectrum density at high altitudes （1-5 km） based on wind profiling radar （WPR） measurements. The turbulence spectrum under stable weather conditions at high altitudes is expressed in powers within a frequency range of 2 × 10-5-10-3 s-1, and the slope b is between -0.82 and -1.04, indicating that the turbulence is in the transition from the energetic area to the inertial sub-range. The features of strong weather are reflected less obviously in the wind energy spectrum than in the turbulence spectrum, with peaks showing up at different heights in the latter spectrum. Cold windy weather appears over a period of 1.5 days in the turbulence spectrum. Wide-range rainstorms exhibit two or three peaks in the spectrum over a period of 15-20 h, while in severe convective weather conditions, there are two peaks at 13 and 9 h. The results indicate that spectrum analysis of wind profiling radar measurements can be used as a supplemental and helpful method for weather analysis.