Application of LPW and SAI SAFNWC/MSG satellite products in pre-convective environments

The Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imagery (SEVIRI) instrument, on board the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), is a radiometer with eight infrared (IR) spectral bands. Seven of these channels are used to retrieve Layer Precipitable Water (LPW) and Stability Analysis Imagery (SAI). Both products are the PGE07 and the PGE08 of SAFNWC (Satellite Application Facility on support to Nowcasting and Very Short-Range Forecasting). The authors at Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (INM) have developed the LPW and SAI algorithms, in the SAFNWC framework. Both products are retrieved using statistical retrieval based on neural networks. The main advantage of these algorithms versus physical retrieval algorithms is the independence from the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The LPW provides information on the water vapor contained in a vertical column of unit cross-section area in three layers in the troposphere (low, middle and high) and in the total layer in cloud free areas. The SAI provides estimations of the atmospheric instability in cloud free areas, in particular the Lifted Index (LI).The stability and precipitable water obtained with both products are routinely generated every 15 min at a satellite horizontal resolution of 3 km in NADIR. A significant advantage of these MSG products, compared to traditional measurements such as radiosondes, is their ability to measure high resolution temporal and spatial variations of atmospheric stability and moisture in pre-convective environments. The main disadvantage is that they do not have the vertical resolution of radiosonde. The MSG moisture and stability time trend fields are especially useful during the period preceding the outbreak of convection due to the high resolution. Once the outbreak of convection occurs, the products calculated in the clear air pixels surrounding the convective system will allow to foresee the evolution of the convection.     

Three-dimensional evolution of worms and chimneys in the Galactic disc

Three-dimensional modelling of the flow of gas and plasma in a section of the Galaxy has been carried out to study the evolution and formation of Galactic chimneys and worms. It is found that clustered supernovae located on either side of the Galactic plane are sources for the formation of well-collimated chimneys, having widths of ∼     . The thick gas disc may have a role in the collimation of chimneys. Channel maps of disc gas, obtained from the simulations, show the presence of sheet-like structures running perpendicular to the Galactic plane and resembling worms. Worms are believed to result from the break-up of the shells and supershells. However, the simulations show that although some worms correlate well with the debris of broken shells/supershells, others do not. They are cold gas that has been accelerated in the disc and rise on to the thick gas disc.     

The winter anomaly in ionospheric absorption and the D-region ion chemistry

A detailed analysis of the D-region ion composition measurements performed by Zbinden et al. (1975), during a winter day of high ionospheric absorption, has been carried out. The study examines the interactive mesosphere-D-region processes which occur in such anomalous conditions and their implication for water cluster ion chemistry. Two clustering regimes for NO⁺ have been observed in the data. Association with N₂ is identified as the dominant process below 76 km. Between 76 and 78 km altitude the effective loss rate of NO⁺ drops by two orders of magnitude. Above 77 km, the three-body reaction NO⁺ + CO₂+M→NO⁺CO₂+M seems to be the main NO⁺ loss. A mesospheric temperature profile could be derived from the ion composition data. This indicates the presence of a strong inversion above 76 km altitude. The wavelike structure obtained, is shown to be consistent with in situ winter temperature measurements. The sharp suppression of the N₂ association reaction could, thus, be explained by an increase in the collisional break-up of the NO⁺N₂ ion because of the enhanced temperature. In conclusion, our study indicates that, besides the increase in the production of NO⁺ and O₂⁺, due to an enhancement in the minor ionizable constituents, an additional thermal mesosphere-D-region interaction seems necessary to explain this winter anomalous ion composition data.     

Possible detection of an old bipolar shell associated with η Carinae

Continuum-subtracted dereddened images in the light of several atomic lines show the presence of an extended bipolar nebula surrounding η Carinae with size ∼100×45 arcsec² (1.3×0.5 pc²). This feature is best delineated in [O  iii ] 5007. The geometrical disposition and mass of the shell suggest that it was formed by mass ejections from η Carinae. The dynamic age of the nebula is ∼13 000/ V ₇ yr, where V ₇ is the mean expansion velocity in 100 km s⁻¹, and its mass is between 5 and 10 M_⊙. The nebula is photoionized and composed of unprocessed material. The major axes of the nebula and of the Homunculus are nearly perpendicular. We also report the discovery of elongated emission knots prominent in [N  ii ] located 64 to 100 arcsec away from η Carinae, which implies that they were ejected either centuries ago or at a more recent date but with extremely large velocities.     

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of mesoscale model downscaled hydro‐meteorological variables for discharge prediction

Precipitation and Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) are the most important variables for rainfall–runoff modelling. However, it is not always possible to get access to them from ground‐based measurements, particularly in ungauged catchments. This study explores the performance of rainfall and ETo data from the global European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA interim reanalysis data for the discharge prediction. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model coupled with the NOAH Land Surface Model is used for the retrieval of hydro‐meteorological variables by downscaling ECMWF datasets. The conceptual Probability Distribution Model (PDM) is chosen for this study for the discharge prediction. The input data and model parameter sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimations are taken into account for the PDM calibration and prediction in the case study catchment in England following the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. The goodness of calibration and prediction uncertainty is judged on the basis of the p‐factor (observations bracketed by the prediction uncertainty) and the r‐factor (achievement of small uncertainty band). The overall analysis suggests that the uncertainty estimates using WRF downscaled ETo have slightly smaller p and r values (p= 0.65; r= 0.58) as compared to ground‐based observation datasets (p= 0.71; r= 0.65) during the validation and hence promising for discharge prediction. On the contrary, WRF precipitation has the worst performance, and further research is needed for its improvement (p= 0.04; r= 0.10). Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fluvial transport of suspended sediment and organic carbon during flood events in a large agricultural catchment in southwest France

Water draining from a large agricultural catchment of 1 110 km² in southwest France was sampled over an 18‐month period to determine the temporal variability in suspended sediment (SS) and dissolved (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) transport during flood events, with quantification of fluxes and controlling factors, and to analyze the relationships between discharge and SS, DOC and POC. A total of 15 flood events were analyzed, providing extensive data on SS, POC and DOC during floods. There was high variability in SS, POC and DOC transport during different seasonal floods, with SS varying by event from 513 to 41 750 t; POC from 12 to 748 t and DOC from 9 to 218 t. Overall, 76 and 62% of total fluxes of POC and DOC occurred within 22% of the study period. POC and DOC export from the Save catchment amounted to 3090 t and 1240 t, equivalent to 1·8 t km^?2 y^?1 and 0·7 t km^?2 y^?1, respectively. Statistical analyses showed that total precipitation, flood discharge and total water yield were the major factors controlling SS, POC and DOC transport from the catchment. The relationships between SS, POC and DOC and discharge over temporal flood events resulted in different hysteresis patterns, which were used to deduce dissolved and particulate origins. In both clockwise and anticlockwise hysteresis, POC mainly followed the same patterns as discharge and SS. The DOC‐discharge relationship was mainly characterized by alternating clockwise and anticlockwise hysteresis due to dilution effects of water originating from different sources in the whole catchment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic radar rainfall nowcasts using empirical and theoretical uncertainty models

Weather radar has a potential to provide accurate short‐term (0–3 h) forecasts of rainfall (i.e. radar nowcasts), which are of great importance in warnings and risk management for hydro‐meteorological events. However, radar nowcasts are affected by large uncertainties, which are not only linked to limitations in the forecast method but also because of errors in the radar rainfall measurement. The probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting approach attempts to quantify these uncertainties by delivering the forecasts in a probabilistic form. This study implements two forms of probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting for a hilly area in the south of Manchester, namely, the theoretically based scheme [ensemble rainfall forecasts (ERF)‐TN] and the empirically based scheme (ERF‐EM), and explores which one exhibits higher predictive skill. The ERF‐TN scheme generates ensemble forecasts of rainfall in which each ensemble member is determined by the stochastic realisation of a theoretical noise component. The so‐called ERF‐EM scheme proposed and applied for the first time in this study, aims to use an empirically based error model to measure and quantify the combined effect of all the error sources in the radar rainfall forecasts. The essence of the error model is formulated into an empirical relation between the radar rainfall forecasts and the corresponding ‘ground truth’ represented by the rainfall field from rain gauges measurements. The ensemble members generated by the two schemes have been compared with the rain gauge rainfall. The hit rate and the false alarm rate statistics have been computed and combined into relative operating characteristic curves. The comparison of the performance scores for the two schemes shows that the ERF‐EM achieves better performance than the ERF‐TN at 1‐h lead time. The predictive skills of both schemes are almost identical when the lead time increases to 2 h. In addition, the relation between uncertainty in the radar rainfall forecasts and lead time is also investigated by computing the dispersion of the generated ensemble members. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.