Probabilistic radar rainfall nowcasts using empirical and theoretical uncertainty models

Weather radar has a potential to provide accurate short‐term (0–3 h) forecasts of rainfall (i.e. radar nowcasts), which are of great importance in warnings and risk management for hydro‐meteorological events. However, radar nowcasts are affected by large uncertainties, which are not only linked to limitations in the forecast method but also because of errors in the radar rainfall measurement. The probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting approach attempts to quantify these uncertainties by delivering the forecasts in a probabilistic form. This study implements two forms of probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting for a hilly area in the south of Manchester, namely, the theoretically based scheme [ensemble rainfall forecasts (ERF)‐TN] and the empirically based scheme (ERF‐EM), and explores which one exhibits higher predictive skill. The ERF‐TN scheme generates ensemble forecasts of rainfall in which each ensemble member is determined by the stochastic realisation of a theoretical noise component. The so‐called ERF‐EM scheme proposed and applied for the first time in this study, aims to use an empirically based error model to measure and quantify the combined effect of all the error sources in the radar rainfall forecasts. The essence of the error model is formulated into an empirical relation between the radar rainfall forecasts and the corresponding ‘ground truth’ represented by the rainfall field from rain gauges measurements. The ensemble members generated by the two schemes have been compared with the rain gauge rainfall. The hit rate and the false alarm rate statistics have been computed and combined into relative operating characteristic curves. The comparison of the performance scores for the two schemes shows that the ERF‐EM achieves better performance than the ERF‐TN at 1‐h lead time. The predictive skills of both schemes are almost identical when the lead time increases to 2 h. In addition, the relation between uncertainty in the radar rainfall forecasts and lead time is also investigated by computing the dispersion of the generated ensemble members. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determination of the Concentration of Carbonic Species in Natural Waters: Results from a World‐Wide Proficiency Test

The results of an international interlaboratory proficiency test for the determination of carbonic species are presented. Eight laboratories analysed twelve water samples (four synthetic waters, one lake water, four geothermal waters, one seawater and two petroleum waters) by two methods: (a) individual laboratory analytical procedure and (b) acid–base titration curves in tabular form following a standardised protocol. In case (b), the concentrations of carbonic species were calculated by the organiser using the (1) Hydrologists' method, (2) Geochemists' method and/or (3) initial pH and total alkalinity method. For synthetic waters, the averaged % trueness and precision of measurement of the two methods were (trueness = 7.6, precision = 9.4) and (9.0, 3.4) for total alkalinity, and (6.6, 31.0) and (7.8, 6.1) for carbonic alkalinity, respectively. This indicates that the total alkalinity calculation procedure is in general correct in the individual laboratory method, but the carbonic alkalinity calculation procedure has serious problems. The measurements of total alkalinity for lake and seawaters were in agreement in both the methods; however, the individual laboratory measurement method for geothermal and petroleum waters was conceptually incorrect. Thus, the analytical procedures for the determination of carbonic species were reviewed. To apply the Hydrologists' and/or Geochemists' methods, the location of NaHCO₃EP and H₂CO₃EP is necessary, even for samples with pH lower than that of NaHCO₃EP, and a backward titration curve after complete removal of CO₂ must be performed. The initial pH and total alkalinity method is appropriate where a complete analysis of species that contribute to the alkalinity is known.     

LavAtmos: An open-source chemical equilibrium vaporization code for lava worlds

To date, over 500 short-period rocky planets with equilibrium temperatures above 1500 K have been discovered. Such planets are expected to support magma oceans, providing a direct interface between the interior and the atmosphere. This provides a unique opportunity to gain insight into their interior compositions through atmospheric observations. A key process in doing such work is the vapor outgassing from the lava surface. LavAtmos is an open-source code that calculates the equilibrium chemical composition of vapor above a dry melt for a given composition and temperature. Results show that the produced output is in good agreement with the partial pressures obtained from experimental laboratory data as well as with other similar codes from literature. LavAtmos allows for the modeling of vaporization of a wide range of different mantle compositions of hot rocky exoplanets. In combination with atmospheric chemistry codes, this enables the characterization of interior compositions through atmospheric signatures.     

Climate controls on rainfall isotopes and their effects on cave drip water and speleothem growth: the case of Molinos cave (Teruel,NE Spain)

The interpretation of stable isotopes in speleothems in terms of past temperature variability or precipitation rates requires a comprehensive understanding of the climatic factors and processes that influence the δ¹⁸O signal in the way through the atmosphere to the cave, where carbonate precipitates acquiring its final isotopic composition. This study presents for the first time in the Iberia Peninsula an integrated analysis of the isotopic composition of rainfall (δ¹⁸O_p) during 2010–2012 years and, through a detailed monitoring survey, the transference of the primary isotopic signal throughout the soil and epikarst into the Molinos cave (Teruel, NE Spain). Both air temperature and amount of precipitation have an important effect on δ¹⁸O_p values, clearly imprinting a seasonal variability modulated by an amount effect when rainfall events are more frequent or intense. Air mass history and atmospheric circulation influences are considered through the study of weather types, synoptic-scale climate patterns and large-scale atmospheric circulation indexes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Western Mediterranean Oscillation) revealing a dominant source effect on δ¹⁸O_p values in this region where tropical North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean are the two moisture source regions. A delay of 2–3 months occurs between the dripwater oxygen isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O_d) respect to δ¹⁸O_p values as a consequence of large residence time in the epikarst. Limited calcite precipitates are found from winter to spring when δ¹⁸O_d values are less negative and dripwater rates are constant. This study suggests that NE Iberian δ¹⁸O_calcite proxy records are best interpreted as reflecting a combination of parameters, not just paleotemperature or paleorainfall and, if extending present-day situation towards the recent past, a biased signal towards winter values should be expected in Molinos speleothem records.     

Evaluation of the contamination of platinum in estuarine and coastal sediments (Tagus Estuary and Prodelta, Portugal)

Platinum contamination in estuarine and coastal sediments has been evaluated in three cores collected from the Tagus Estuary and Prodelta shelf sediments. Elevated concentrations, up to 25-fold enrichment compared to background values, were found in the upper layers of the estuarine sediments. The degree of Pt enrichment in the estuarine sediments varied depending on the proximity to vehicular traffic sources, with a maximum concentration of 9.5 ng g⁻¹. A considerable decrease of Pt concentrations with depth indicated the absence of significant contamination before the introduction of catalytic converters in automobiles. Platinum distribution in the Tagus Prodelta shelf sediment core showed no surface enrichment; instead a sub-surface maximum at the base of the mixed layer suggested the possibility of post-depositional mobility, thereby blurring the traffic-borne contamination signature in coastal sediments.     

Influence of multiple stressors on the auto-remediation processes occurring in salt marshes

Due to increasing global population, salt marshes have been subjected to multiple stressors such as increasing nutrient loadings and historical contamination. In order to better understand how does the salt marsh plants auto-remediation capacity (phytoaccumulation of metals) is affected by cultural eutrophication, an experiment was performed under controlled conditions. Plants were exposure to equal metal concentrations (Zn, Cu, and Ni - micronutrients, and Cd - class B metal) simulating historical contamination and three different concentrations of nitrogen (nitrate) simulating steps of cultural eutrophication. According to our study, under the tested concentrations, cultural eutrophication does not seem to affect Zn, Cu and Ni phytoremediation of H. portulacoides, but the ecosystem service of Cd phytoremediation seems to be promoted. Nevertheless, Cd high toxicity and bioaccumulation should be taken into account, as well as the vulnerability of salt marsh ecosystems, whose reduction will have drastic consequences to the ecosystem health.