A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe

Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations including spatial–temporal rainfall scenarios and single-site temperature and potential evapotranspiration scenarios for hydrological impact assessment in the Dommel catchment (1,350 km²) in The Netherlands and Belgium. A multi-site stochastic rainfall model combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator have been used for the first time with the change factor approach to downscale projections of change derived from eight Regional Climate Model (RCM) experiments for the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 2071–2100. For winter, all downscaled scenarios show an increase in mean daily precipitation (catchment average change of +9% to +40%) and typically an increase in the proportion of wet days, while for summer a decrease in mean daily precipitation (−16% to −57%) and proportion of wet days is projected. The range of projected mean temperature is 7.7°C to 9.1°C for winter and 19.9°C to 23.3°C for summer, relative to means for the control period (1961–1990) of 3.8°C and 16.8°C, respectively. Mean annual potential evapotranspiration is projected to increase by between +17% and +36%. The magnitude and seasonal distribution of changes in the downscaled climate change projections are strongly influenced by the General Circulation Model (GCM) providing boundary conditions for the RCM experiments. Therefore, a multi-model ensemble of climate change scenarios based on different RCMs and GCMs provides more robust estimates of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for hydrological impact assessments, at both regional and local scale.     

Consistent Two-Equation Closure Modelling for Atmospheric Research: Buoyancy and Vegetation Implementations

A self-consistent two-equation closure treating buoyancy and plant drag effects has been developed, through consideration of the behaviour of the supplementary equation for the length-scale-determining variable in homogeneous turbulent flow. Being consistent with the canonical flow regimes of grid turbulence and wall-bounded flow, the closure is also valid for homogeneous shear flows commonly observed inside tall vegetative canopies and in non-neutral atmospheric conditions. Here we examine the most often used two-equation models, namely and E − ω (where is the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy, E, and is the specific dissipation), comparing the suggested buoyancy-modified closure against Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. Assessment of the closure implementing both buoyancy and plant drag together has been done, comparing the results of the two models against each other. It has been found that the E − ω model gives a better reproduction of complex atmospheric boundary-layer flows, including less sensitivity to numerical artefacts, than does the model. Re-derivation of the equation from the ω equation, however, leads to the model implementation that produces results identical to the E − ω model. Overall, numerical results show that the closure performs well, opening new possibilities for application of such models to tasks related to the atmospheric boundary layer—where it is important to adequately account for the influences of both vegetation and atmospheric stability.     

Long-Term Mean Wind Profiles Based on Similarity Theory

We provide general forms for long-term mean wind profiles from similarity-based wind profiles, beginning with a probabilistic adaptation of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. We develop an analytical formulation for the stability distributions prevailing in the atmospheric surface layer, which in turn facilitates the derivation of a long-term mean wind profile based on Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. The modelled stability distributions exhibit good agreement with measurements from sites having different local conditions. The long-term wind profile formulation is further extended to include the influence of the depth of the atmospheric boundary layer (h), which becomes relevant for heights above h/3, and the resultant long-term ‘tall’ profile form also matches observations.     

Numerical simulations of hot halo gas in galaxy mergers

Galaxy merger simulations have explored the behaviour of gas within the galactic disc, yet the dynamics of hot gas within the galaxy halo have been neglected. We report on the results of high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations of colliding galaxies with metal-free hot halo gas. To isolate the effect of the halo gas, we simulate only the dark matter halo and the hot halo gas over a range of mass ratios, gas fractions and orbital configurations to constrain the shocks and gas dynamics within the progenitor haloes. We find that (i) a strong shock is produced in the galaxy haloes before the first passage, increasing the temperature of the gas by almost an order of magnitude to   T ∼ 10^6.3 K  . (ii) The X-ray luminosity of the shock is strongly dependent on the gas fraction; it is  ≳10³⁹ erg s⁻¹  for halo gas fractions larger than 10 per cent. (iii) The hot diffuse gas in the simulation produces X-ray luminosities as large as  10⁴² erg s⁻¹  . This contributes to the total X-ray background in the Universe. (iv) We find an analytic fit to the maximum X-ray luminosity of the shock as a function of merger parameters. This fit can be used in semi-analytic recipes of galaxy formation to estimate the total X-ray emission from shocks in merging galaxies. (v) ∼10–20 per cent of the initial gas mass is unbound from the galaxies for equal-mass mergers, while 3–5 per cent of the gas mass is released for the 3:1 and 10:1 mergers. This unbound gas ends up far from the galaxy and can be a feasible mechanism to enrich the intergalactic medium with metals.     

Economic benefit of the protection program for the Steller sea lion

This paper examines willingness to pay (WTP) for an endangered species across geographically nested samples using the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM). The three samples range from (1) the boroughs that contain critical habitat for the Steller sea lion to (2) the state that contains these boroughs to and (3) the entire United States. Depending on the assumptions of the model, WTP varies tremendously from sample to sample. WTP for the United States is the highest and it is the lowest for the boroughs. The null hypotheses that mean WTP estimates are greater then zero were rejected for the boroughs and the state but were not rejected for the United States based on the 95% confidence intervals.     

Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene lake‐level fluctuations in the Lahontan Basin,Nevada: Implications for the distribution of archaeological sites

The Great Basin of the western U.S. contains a rich record of Late Pleistocene and Holocene lake‐level fluctuations as well as an extensive record of human occupation during the same time frame. We compare spatial‐temporal relationships between these records in the Lahontan basin to consider whether lake‐level fluctuations across the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition controlled distribution of archaeological sites. We use the reasonably well‐dated archaeological record from caves and rockshelters as well as results from new pedestrian surveys to investigate this problem. Although lake levels probably reached maximum elevations of about 1230–1235 m in the different subbasins of Lahontan during the Younger Dryas (YD) period, the duration that the lakes occupied the highest levels was brief. Paleoindian and Early Archaic archaeological sites are concentrated on somewhat lower and slightly younger shorelines (_1220–1225 m) that also date from the Younger Dryas period. This study suggests that Paleoindians often concentrated their activities adjacent to large lakes and wetland resources soon after they first entered the Great Basin. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Holocene vegetation dynamics and hydrological variability in forested peatlands of the Clay Belt,eastern Canada,reconstructed using a palaeoecological approach

Forested peatlands are widespread in boreal regions of Canada, and these ecosystems, which are major terrestrial carbon sinks, are undergoing significant transformations linked to climate change, fires and human activities. This study targets millennial‐scale vegetation dynamics and related hydrological variability in forested peatlands of the Clay Belt south of James Bay, eastern Canada, using palaeoecological data. Changes in peatland vegetation communities were reconstructed using plant macrofossil analyses, and variations in water‐table depths were inferred using testate amoeba analyses. High‐resolution analyses of macroscopic charcoal >0.5 mm were used to reconstruct local fire history. Our data showed two successional pathways towards the development of present‐day forested peatlands influenced by autogenic processes such as vertical peat growth and related drying, and allogenic factors such as the occurrence of local fires. The oldest documented peatland initiated in a wet rich fen around 8000 cal. a BP shortly after land emergence and transformed into a drier forested bog rapidly after peat inception that persisted over millennia. In the second site, peat started to accumulate from ~5200 cal. a BP over a mesic coniferous forest that shifted into a wet forested peatland following a fire that partially consumed the organic layer ~4600 cal. a BP. The charcoal records show that fires rarely occurred in these peatlands, but they have favoured the process of forest paludification and influenced successional trajectories over millennia. The macrofossil data suggest that Picea mariana (black spruce) persisted on the peatlands throughout their development, although there were periods of more open canopy due to local fires in some cases. This study brings new understanding on the natural variability of boreal forested peatlands which may help predict their response to future changes in climate, fire regimes and anthropogenic disturbances.     

Sources of variability in springwater chemistry in Fool Creek,a high-elevation catchment of the Rocky Mountains,Colorado, USA

Springs are the point of origin for most headwater streams and are important regulators of their chemical composition. We analysed solute concentrations of water emerging from 57 springs within the 3 km² Fool Creek catchment at the Fraser Experimental Forest and considered sources of spatial variation among them and their influence on the chemical composition of downstream water. On average, calcium and acid neutralizing capacity (bicarbonate-ANC) comprised 50 and 90% of the cation and anion charge respectively, in both spring and stream water. Variation in inorganic chemical composition among springs reflected distinct groundwater sources and catchment geology. Springs emerging through glacial deposits in the upper portion of the catchment were the most dilute and similar to snowmelt, whereas lower elevation springs were more concentrated in cations and ANC. Water emerging from a handful of springs in a geologically faulted portion of the catchment were more concentrated than all others and had a predominant effect on downstream ion concentrations. Chemical similarity indicated that these springs were linked along surface and subsurface flowpaths. This survey shows that springwater chemistry is influenced at nested spatial scales including broad geologic conditions, elevational and spatial attributes and isolated local features. Our results highlight the role of overlapping factors on solute export from headwater catchments.     

The Fernow Experimental Forest,West Virginia,USA: Insights,datasets, and opportunities

Long-term experimental watershed studies have significantly influenced our global understanding of hydrological processes. The discovery and characterization of how stream water quantity and quality respond to a changing environment (e.g. land-use change, acidic deposition) has only been possible due to the establishment of catchments devoted to long-term study. One such catchment is the Fernow Experimental Forest (FEF) located in the headwaters of the Appalachian Mountains in West Virginia, a region that provides essential freshwater ecosystem services to eastern and mid-western United States communities. Established in 1934, the FEF is among the earliest experimental watershed studies in the Eastern United States that continues to address emergent challenges to forest ecosystems, including climate change and other threats to forest health. This data note describes available data and presents some findings from more than 50 years of hydrologic research at the FEF. During the first few decades, research at the FEF focused on the relationship between forest management and hydrological processes—especially those related to the overall water balance. Later, research included the examination of interactions between hydrology and soil erosion, biogeochemistry, N-saturation, and acid deposition. Hydro-climatologic and water quality datasets from long-term measurements and data from short-duration studies are publicly available to provide new insights and foster collaborations that will continue to advance our understanding of hydrology in forested headwater catchments. As a result of its rich history of research and abundance of long-term data, the FEF is positioned to continue to advance understanding of forest ecosystems in a time of unprecedented change.     

The Quadrennial Ozone Symposium 2016

<正>1.Overview The 2016 Quadrennial Ozone Symposium(QOS-2016)was held on 4–9 September 2016 in Edinburgh,UK.The Symposium was organized by the International Ozone Commission(IO3C),the NERC Centre for EcologyHydrology and the University of Edinburgh,and was co-sponsored by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics,the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric