Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies

Over 40 studies that analyse future GHG emissions allowances or reduction targets for different regions based on a wide range of effort-sharing approaches and long-term concentration stabilization levels are compared. This updates previous work undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Regional reduction targets differ significantly for each effort-sharing approach. For example, in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 1990 region, new proposals that emphasize the equity principles of responsibility, capability, and need, and those based on equal cumulative per capita emissions (carbon budgets), lead to relatively stringent emissions reduction targets. In order to reach a low concentration stabilization level of 450?ppm CO₂e, the allowances under all effort sharing approaches in OECD1990 for 2030 would be approximately half of the emissions of 2010 with a large range, roughly two-thirds in the Economies in Transition (EIT), roughly at the 2010 emissions level or slightly below in Asia, slightly above the 2010 level in the Middle East and Africa and well below the 2010 level in Latin America. For 2050, allowances in OECD1990 and EIT would be a fraction of today's emissions, approximately half of 2010 emission levels in Asia, and possibly less than half of the 2010 level in Latin America.

Policy relevance

The concept of equity and the stringency of future national GHG reduction targets are at the heart of the current debate on the new international climate change agreement to be adopted in 2015. Policy insights gained from an analysis of over 40 studies, which have quantitatively analysed the proposed GHG reduction targets, are presented. It is found that the outcome of effort-sharing approaches is often largely determined by the way the equity principle is implemented and that the distributional impacts of such approaches can be significantly different depending on the criteria used, the stabilization level and shape of the global emissions pathway. However, the current literature only covers a small proportion of the possible allocation approaches. There should thus be an in-depth modelling comparison to ensure consistency and comparability of results and inform decision making regarding the reduction of GHG emissions.     

Spatiotemporal changes in cadmium contamination in the Seine estuary (France)

Cadmium (Cd) is among the major contaminants in the Seine estuary. In the biota, the RNO (Réseau National d’Observation, the French Mussel-Watch) has shown that Cd concentrations in mussels living at the mouth of the estuary are related to changes in inputs to this area of phosphogypsum, a calcium sulphate that is a by-product of the phosphoric acid naturally enriched with Cd. In the water column, Cd concentrations at several key estuary sites show a very marked trend toward decreased contamination in the particles as well as in the dissolved phase. The behavior of Cd in the estuary has been studied between 1991 and 1998 in the framework of the scientific program Seine-Aval. This program has highlighted punctual Cd inputs in the estuarine water column. The partition of Cd between the dissolved and the particulate phase, previously described in various estuaries, is characterized by an intense phenomenon of solubilization in the mixing zone freshwater-seawater, but the colloidal Cd fraction remains low along the whole salinity gradient, about 5% to 10% of the apparent dissolved fraction. Although the decrease of inputs induced a fall of Cd concentrations in the water column, laboratory experiments show that the estuarine particles are far from being exhausted in Cd. Despite continuous efforts to reduce the urban and industrial inputs into the estuarine and coastal waters, the Seine estuary still remains very contaminated by Cd.     

Geochemistry of Pliocene/Pleistocene basalts along the Central Anatolian Fault Zone (CAFZ), Turkey

Abstract

Pliocene-Pleistocene volcanism accompanied strike-slip-related transtensional deformation along the K?z?l?rmak fault segment of the Central Anatolian fault zone (CAFZ) in the west of ?ark??la (Sivas-central Turkey). These volcanic rocks are represented by alkali olivine basalts. They can be divided into four different sub-groups on the basis of their Zr, Nb, TiO₂ contents. A primitive mantle-normalized incompatible trace element diagram for four subgroups shows close similarity to typical OIB pattern. Some of the incompatible trace element ratios (Ce/Y, Zr/Nb, La/Ba, La/Nb) are also akin to OIB values. Highly fractionated REE patterns (La/Yb_N=24.7–9.2) with no Eu anomaly are the main features of the alkali basalts and are comparable to alkaline volcanism in continental rift zones. On the basis of Al₂O₃/TiO₂, Nb/Y, Zr/Y Zr/Nb ratios, the geochemical differences among four sub-groups can be explained by variable degrees of partial melting of compositionally similar mantle source. Th/Nb, Th/Y, Nb/Y ratios and the primitive mantle-normalized trace element diagram suggests significant amount of crustal involvement for most of the alkali olivine basalts erupted along the CAFZ. Rupture of the continental lithosphere by strike-slip-related transtensional deformation might have caused decompressional partial melting of the asthenospheric mantle and generating alkali olivine basalts in this region. © 2001 Éditions scientifiques et médicales Elsevier SAS.     

Dominant amphipods of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows display considerable trophic diversity

Gut content examination and trophic markers (fatty acids, stable isotopes of C and N) were combined to delineate the diet of the dominant species of amphipods from Mediterranean Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows and to highlight trophic diversity among this community. Our results indicate that, although all dominant species heavily relied on macroalgal epiphytes, considerable interspecific dietary differences existed. Carbon stable isotope ratios notably showed that some of the amphipod species favored grazing on epiphytes from leaves or litter fragments (Apherusa chiereghinii, Aora spinicornis, Gammarus aequicauda), while others such as Dexamine spiniventris preferred epiphytes from rhizomes. The remaining amphipods (Caprella acanthifera, Ampithoe helleri and Gammarella fucicola) readily consumed both groups. In addition, SIAR modeling suggested that most species had a mixed diet, and relied on several food items. Fatty acid analysis and gut contents revealed that contributions of microepiphytic diatoms and of benthic and suspended particulate organic matter to the diet of amphipods were anecdotal. None of the examined species seemed to graze on their seagrass host [low 18:2(n‐6) and 18:3(n‐3) fatty acids contents], but Gammarus aequicauda partly relied on seagrass leaf detritus, as demonstrated by the lesser ¹³C‐depletion of their tissues. Overall, our findings suggest that amphipods, because of their importance in the transfer of organic matter from primary producers and detritus to higher rank consumers, are key items in P. oceanica‐associated food webs.     

The mid-depth circulation of the northwestern tropical Atlantic observed by floats

A comprehensive analysis of velocity data from subsurface floats in the northwestern tropical Atlantic at two depth layers is presented: one representing the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW, pressure range 600–1050 dbar), the other the upper North Atlantic Deep Water (uNADW, pressure range 1200–2050 dbar). New data from three independent research programs are combined with previously available data to achieve blanket coverage in space for the AAIW layer, while coverage in the uNADW remains more intermittent. Results from the AAIW mainly confirm previous studies on the mean flow, namely the equatorial zonal and the boundary currents, but clarify details on pathways, mostly by virtue of the spatial data coverage that sets float observations apart from e.g. shipborne or mooring observations. Mean transports in each of five zonal equatorial current bands is found to be between 2.7 and 4.5 Sv. Pathways carrying AAIW northward beyond the North Brazil Undercurrent are clearly visible in the mean velocity field, in particular a northward transport of 3.7 Sv across 16°N between the Antilles islands and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. New maps of Lagrangian eddy kinetic energy and integral time scales are presented to quantify mesoscale activity. For the uNADW, mean flow and mesoscale properties are discussed as data availability allows. Trajectories in the uNADW east of the Lesser Antilles reveal interactions between the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) and the basin interior, which can explain recent hydrographic observations of changes in composition of DWBC water along its southward flow.     

Prediction of impact pressure induced by breaking waves on vertical cylinders in random seas

This paper presents a method to statistically predict the magnitude of impact pressure (including extreme values) produced by deep water waves breaking on a circular cylinder representing a column of an ocean structure. Breaking waves defined here are not those whose tops are blown off by the wind but those whose breaking is associated with steepness. The probability density function of wave period associated with breaking waves is derived for a specified wave spectrum, and then converted to the probability density function of impact pressure. Impacts caused by two different breaking conditions are considered; one is the impact associated with waves breaking in close proximity to the column, the other is an impact caused by waves approaching the column after they have broken. As an example of the application of the present method, numerical computations are carried out for a wave spectrum obtained from measured data in the North Atlantic.     

Residence times in river basins as determined by analysis of long-term tritium records

The US Geological Survey has maintained a network of stations to collect samples for the measurement of tritium concentrations in precipitation and streamflow since the early 1960s. Tritium data from outflow waters of river basins draining 4500–75000 km² are used to determine average residence times of water within the basins. The basins studied are the Colorado River above Cisco, Utah; the Kissimmee River above Lake Okeechobee, Florida; the Mississippi River above Anoka, Minnesota; the Neuse River above Streets Ferry Bridge near Vanceboro, North Carolina; the Potomac River above Point of Rocks, Maryland; the Sacramento River above Sacramento, California; the Susquehanna River above Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. The basins are modeled with the assumption that the outflow in the river comes from two sources—prompt (within-year) runoff from precipitation, and flow from the long-term reservoirs of the basin. Tritium concentration in the outflow water of the basin is dependent on three factors: (1) tritium concentration in runoff from the long-term reservoir, which depends on the residence time for the reservoir and historical tritium concentrations in precipitation; (2) tritium concentrations in precipitation (the within-year runoff component); (3) relative contributions of flow from the long-term and within-year components. Predicted tritium concentrations for the outflow water in the river basins were calculated for different residence times and for different relative contributions from the two reservoirs. A box model was used to calculate tritium concentrations in the long-term reservoir. Calculated values of outflow tritium concentrations for the basin were regressed against the measured data to obtain a slope as close as possible to 1. These regressions assumed an intercept of zero and were carried out for different values of residence time and reservoir contribution to maximize the fit of modeled versus actual data for all the above rivers. The final slopes of the fitted regression lines ranged from 0.95 to 1.01 (correlation coefficient > 0.96) for the basins studied. Values for the residence time of waters within the basins and average relative contributions of the within-year and long-term reservoirs to outflow were obtained. Values for river basin residence times ranged from 2 years for the Kissimmee River basin to 20 years for the Potomac River basin. The residence times indicate the time scale in which the basin responds to anthropogenic inputs. The modeled tritium concentrations for the basins also furnish input data for urban and agricultural settings where these river waters are used.     

Construction of three-phase data to model multiphase flow in porous media: Comparing an optimization approach to the finite element approach

Multiphase flow modelling is a major issue in the assessment of groundwater pollution. Three-phase flows are commonly governed by mathematical models that associate a pressure equation with two saturation equations. These equations involve a number of secondary variables that reflect the fluid behaviour in a porous medium. To improve the computational efficiency of multiphase flow simulators, several simplified reformulations of three-phase flow equations have been proposed. However, they require the construction of new secondary variables adapted to the reformulated flow equations. In this article, two different approaches are compared to quantify these variables. A numerical example is given for a typical fine sand.     

Ice-Core Study of the Link between Sea-Salt Aerosol,Sea-Ice Cover and Climate in the Antarctic Peninsula Area

Three ice cores and a set of snow pit samples collected on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 1979, 1981 and 1991 have been analyzed for water stable isotope content D or ¹⁸O (isotopic temperature) and major chemical species. A reliable and detailed chronological scale has been established first for the upper 24.5 m of water equivalent (1990–1943) where various data sets can be compared, then extended down to 59.5 m of water equivalent (1847) with the aid of seasonal variations and the sulphate peak reflecting the 1883 Krakatoa volcanic eruption. At James Ross Island, sea-salt aerosol is generally produced by ice-free marine surfaces during the summer months, although some winter sea-salt events have been observed. For the upper part of the core (1990–1943), correlations (positive or negative) were calculated between isotopic temperature, chloride content (a sea-salt indicator), sea-ice extent, regional atmospheric temperature changes and atmospheric circulation. The D and chloride content correlation was then extended back to 1847, making it possible to estimate decadal sea-ice cover fluctuations over the study period. Our findings suggest that ice-core records from James Ross Island reflect the recent warming and sea-ice decrease trends observed in the Antarctic Peninsula area from the mid-1940s.