Measuring and interpreting heat fluxes from shallow volcanic bodies using vertical temperature profiles: a preliminary test

 To test the potential of heat flux prospecting in active volcanic areas using shallow temperature data taken along vertical profiles, we carried out two thermal profile surveys, one not far from Yasur cone on Tanna Island, and another inside the caldera of Ambrym (New Hebrides arc, southwestern Pacific). The basic steady heat flux of internal volcanic origin was determined, taking into account both conductive and convective heat transfers. At both locations there exists, over small distances, significant differences in the heat flux. These differences correspond to shallow sources of heat. The use of a network of vertical profiles allowed: (a) heat flux mapping; (b) location of shallow volcanic heat sources; and (c) observation of the detailed structure of the heat release at quiescent but active volcanoes. Received: 18 July 1997 / Accepted: 13 May 1998     

Magnetostratigraphy of the lower Triassic volcanics from deep drill SG6 in western Siberia: evidence for long-lasting Permo–Triassic volcanic activity

The deep drill hole SG6 in western Siberia (66°N, 78.5°E) penetrated 1.1  km of lower Triassic basalts, which are possibly an extension of the central Siberian Permo– Triassic flood basalt province. About 300 samples of these basalts were progressively demagnetized and measured. Principal component analysis often shows multiple magnetizations carried by haematite and magnetite. The corrected mean inclinations are +77° and −77° for the haematite component. A magnetostratigraphic scale was derived and showed a N–R–N–R–N succession. This is quite different from the Noril'sk and Taimyr typical polarity scale, R–N.
  The basalts found in the SG6 deep drill hole are slightly younger than those of central Siberia and Taimyr. They correspond to middle–upper Induan age, whereas the Noril'sk and Taimyr sections correspond to an uppermost Permian and lower Induan age. Altogether they indicate that, after a high output rate of volcanic material near the Permo–Triassic boundary, this activity slowed down drastically on the Siberian platform and Taimyr, but persisted for several million years in western Siberia.     

Geothermal Characterization of the St. Lawrence Lowlands Sedimentary Basin,Québec,Canada

Defining temperature at depth to identify geothermal resources relies on the evaluation of the Earth heat flow based on equilibrium temperature measurements as well as thermal conductivity and heat generation rate assessment. Such high-quality geothermal data can be sparse over the region of interest. This is the case of the St. Lawrence Lowlands sedimentary basin covering 20,000 km² to the south of Québec, Canada, and enclosing only three wells up to a depth of 500 m with equilibrium heat flow measurements. However, more than 250 oil and gas exploration wells have been drilled in this area, providing for this study (parce que c'est 93 sinon) 81 locations with bottom-hole temperature up to a depth of 4300 m, however, not at equilibrium. Analyzing these data with respect to the deep geothermal resource potential of this sedimentary basin requires evaluating the thermal conductivity and heat generation rate of its geological units to properly extrapolate temperature downward. This was done by compiling literature and recent thermal conductivity measurements in outcrop and core samples as well as new heat generation rate estimates from spectral gamma ray logs to establish a first thermal assessment of geological units deep down into the basin. The mean thermal conductivity of the thermal units varies from 2.5 to 6.3 W/m·K, with peak values in the basal sandstones, while the heat generation rate varies from 1.6 to 0.3 µW/m³, decreasing from the upper caprocks toward the base of the sequence. After correcting the bottom-hole temperatures for drilling disturbance with the Harrison correction and subsequently for paleoclimate variations, results indicate a mean geothermal gradient of 23.1 °C/km, varying from 14 to 40 °C/km. Evaluating the basin thermal state from oil and gas data is a significant challenge facilitated by an understanding of its thermal properties.     

Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource.     

Ice-Core Study of the Link between Sea-Salt Aerosol,Sea-Ice Cover and Climate in the Antarctic Peninsula Area

Three ice cores and a set of snow pit samples collected on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 1979, 1981 and 1991 have been analyzed for water stable isotope content D or ¹⁸O (isotopic temperature) and major chemical species. A reliable and detailed chronological scale has been established first for the upper 24.5 m of water equivalent (1990–1943) where various data sets can be compared, then extended down to 59.5 m of water equivalent (1847) with the aid of seasonal variations and the sulphate peak reflecting the 1883 Krakatoa volcanic eruption. At James Ross Island, sea-salt aerosol is generally produced by ice-free marine surfaces during the summer months, although some winter sea-salt events have been observed. For the upper part of the core (1990–1943), correlations (positive or negative) were calculated between isotopic temperature, chloride content (a sea-salt indicator), sea-ice extent, regional atmospheric temperature changes and atmospheric circulation. The D and chloride content correlation was then extended back to 1847, making it possible to estimate decadal sea-ice cover fluctuations over the study period. Our findings suggest that ice-core records from James Ross Island reflect the recent warming and sea-ice decrease trends observed in the Antarctic Peninsula area from the mid-1940s.     

Investigating the Halogen Chemistry From High-Latitude Nighttime Stratospheric Measurements of OClO and NO2

Two cases of simultaneous nighttime measurements of NO₂ and OClO in the winter polar stratosphere are analyzed in order to test our present knowledge of halogen chemistry in the presence of high amount of NO₂ at low temperature. Comparisons with Lagrangian model calculations using several hypotheses are performed. First simulations, using the admitted constant rates of chemical reaction, strongly underestimate the measured OClO while the NO₂ profiles are correctly reproduced. If uncertainties in actinic fluxes calculations are taken into account, simulation results do not show a significant reduction of the underestimation. A better agreement can be achieved if the formation of unstable isomers of ClONO₂ and of BrONO₂ occurs in the cold conditions of the polar stratosphere. An approximate value of the branching ratios of the channels leading to ClONO₂ and ClOONO, and to BrONO₂ and BrOONO, necessary to reproduce both OClO and NO₂ is given and discussed.     

Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies

Over 40 studies that analyse future GHG emissions allowances or reduction targets for different regions based on a wide range of effort-sharing approaches and long-term concentration stabilization levels are compared. This updates previous work undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Regional reduction targets differ significantly for each effort-sharing approach. For example, in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 1990 region, new proposals that emphasize the equity principles of responsibility, capability, and need, and those based on equal cumulative per capita emissions (carbon budgets), lead to relatively stringent emissions reduction targets. In order to reach a low concentration stabilization level of 450?ppm CO₂e, the allowances under all effort sharing approaches in OECD1990 for 2030 would be approximately half of the emissions of 2010 with a large range, roughly two-thirds in the Economies in Transition (EIT), roughly at the 2010 emissions level or slightly below in Asia, slightly above the 2010 level in the Middle East and Africa and well below the 2010 level in Latin America. For 2050, allowances in OECD1990 and EIT would be a fraction of today's emissions, approximately half of 2010 emission levels in Asia, and possibly less than half of the 2010 level in Latin America.

Policy relevance

The concept of equity and the stringency of future national GHG reduction targets are at the heart of the current debate on the new international climate change agreement to be adopted in 2015. Policy insights gained from an analysis of over 40 studies, which have quantitatively analysed the proposed GHG reduction targets, are presented. It is found that the outcome of effort-sharing approaches is often largely determined by the way the equity principle is implemented and that the distributional impacts of such approaches can be significantly different depending on the criteria used, the stabilization level and shape of the global emissions pathway. However, the current literature only covers a small proportion of the possible allocation approaches. There should thus be an in-depth modelling comparison to ensure consistency and comparability of results and inform decision making regarding the reduction of GHG emissions.     

The role of the land use, land use change and forestry sector in achieving Annex I reduction pledges

Annex I Parties may receive credits or debits from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities, contributing to achieving individual emission reduction targets. In the Durban climate negotiations, Parties agreed new LULUCF accounting rules for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (CP2). By using these new rules, this paper presents key differences among Parties at the minimum (assuming no additional action) and potential (assuming additional actions) contribution of the forest-related LULUCF activities in achieving the pledges for 2020. Overall, the potential contribution of LULUCF is relatively modest (up to about 2 % of 1990 emissions) for the EU, the Annex I Parties likely joining the CP2, and for the Annex I Parties that joined the CP1 as a whole. However, for specific Parties, LULUCF can make a substantial contribution to achieving the pledges. For New Zealand, for instance, the potential contribution of future LULUCF credits may equal 33 % of its 1990 emission level. For Australia, the pledges are expressed relative to 2000 emission levels including LULUCF emissions. Given that LULUCF emissions have strongly declined between 1990 and 2000, and a further decline in foreseen by 2020 (based on Australia’s projections), the minimum contribution of LULUCF to meet the Australian pledges appears to be about 19 % and 7 % relative to its 1990 and 2000 emission level, respectively. A further 3 % potential contribution is estimated from additional actions.     

Climate benefits of changing diet

Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO₂-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.