Estimation of the economic impact of temperature changes induced by a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of <Emphasis Type="Italic">FUND</Emphasis>

The integrated assessment model FUND 2.8n is applied in an assessment to estimate the magnitude of the general market and non-market impacts of temperature changes caused by a possible shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC). The monetized impacts of this change in environmental conditions are determined for 207 individual countries for two scenarios: one warming scenario in which the THC weakens but remains intact, and another in which the THC breaks down. Eight different response patterns are identified. The dominant pattern is that a THC shutdown has an offsetting effect on the underlying warming trend. Depending on whether the impacts of warming are initially beneficial or detrimental, the economic effects of a THC shutdown show distinct regional variability. Key economic sectors affected are water resources and energy consumption, as well as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases among health impacts. The maximum national impact of a shutdown of the THC turns out to be of the magnitude of a few per cent of GDP, but the average global impact is much smaller. The results indicate that the temperature effect of a THC shutdown does not create an insurmountable economic threat on a global scale, but may cause severe damages to individual countries. However, a consideration of other climatic impacts such as precipitation and sea level changes is likely to alter the identified trends in economic development.     

青藏高原东缘活动构造

青藏高原东缘由岷山断块和龙门山构造带构成。以活动构造地貌学为主线,在解析该地区主干断裂晚第四纪以来活动的地质地貌表现的基础上,对一批断裂运动学和史前强震活动的定量数据进行分析研究,结果表明:在岷山断块中,虎牙断裂的平均左旋滑动速率为1.4 mm/a,垂直滑动速率为0.3 mm/a。岷江断裂的平均垂直滑动速率介于0.37 mm/a~0.53 mm/a之间,左旋位错量与垂直位错量大致相当;在龙门山构造带中,茂汶-汶川断裂、北川-映秀断裂和彭县-灌县断裂的平均垂直滑动速率均在1 mm/a左右,且几条主干断裂的右旋位错量与垂直位错量相当。结合震源机制解结果和GPS测量资料,建立晚新生代以来青藏高原东缘向南东方向逸出的构造变形模式。     

World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology at the NOAA Paleoclimatology Program,Boulder, CO

Conclusion The World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology, located in the NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, is committed to providing the scientific community with easy access to all paleoenvironmental data. Efforts to make archived data readily available include international coordination of data acquisition, management, and distribution, sponsoring workshops and data cooperatives to facilitate the compilation of important data sets, development of a browse and visualization software package (PaleoVu), and dispersal of archived data on magnetic media or over ANONYMOUS FTP/INTERNET. The program publishes a semi-annual newsletter that highlights latest developments and accomplishments in the area of paleoenvironmental data for global change research. Contributions to the newsletter are welcome from researchers describing their efforts to coordinate the free flow of paleoclimate data throughout the international scientific community.For information on the program or to be added to the mailing list contact Mrs Mildred England (phone: 303-497-6227; Fax: 303 497-6513; e-mail: MKE@mail.ngdc.noaa.gov), NOAA National Geophysical Data Center, Paleoclimatology Program/World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology, 325 Broadway, E/GC Boulder, CO 80303 USA     

A near-infrared survey of IRAS sources in the South Galactic Cap

The paper describes the JHK colours of late-type stars which were investigated as part of a survey of South Galactic Cap (b < -30°) IRAS sources selected on the basis of their 12/25µm flux ratios as high mass-loss candidates. Near-infrared two-colour diagrams provide an effective technique for distinguishing between various groups of late-type stars. Such diagrams are also useful in indicating which stars are likely to be peculiar and worthy of more detailed study. The late-type stars isolated by this survey comprise: 61 Mira variables (3 of which are carbon stars with very thick shells), 3 young stellar objects, 4 interacting binaries, 2 semi-regular carbon variables and 154 oxygen-rich giants.     

Multi-wavelength observations of Asteroid 2100 Ra-Shalom

We observed near-Earth asteroid (NEA) 2100 Ra-Shalom over a six-year period, obtaining rotationally resolved spectra in the visible, near-infrared, thermal-infrared, and radar wavelengths. We find that Ra-Shalom has an effective diameter of Deff=2.3±0.2 km, rotation period P=19.793±0.001 h, visual albedo pv=0.13±0.03, radar albedo , and polarization ratio μc=0.25±0.04. We used our radar observations to generate a three-dimensional shape model which shows several structural features of interest. Based on our thermal observations, Ra-Shalom has a high thermal inertia of ∼10³ J m⁻² s^−0.5 K⁻¹, consistent with a coarse or rocky surface and the inferences of others [Harris, A.W., Davies, J.K., Green, S.F., 1998. Icarus 135, 441-450; Delbo, M., Harris, A.W., Binzel, R.P., Pravec, P., Davies, J.K., 2003. Icarus 166, 116-130]. Our spectral data indicate that Ra-Shalom is a K-class asteroid and we find excellent agreement between our spectra and laboratory spectra of the CV3 meteorite Grosnaja. Our spectra show rotation-dependent variations consistent with global variations in grain size. Our radar observations show rotation-dependent variations in radar albedo consistent with global variations in the thickness of a relatively thin regolith.     

Towards a detailed distal tephrostratigraphy in the Central Mediterranean: The last 20,000 yrs record of Lago Grande di Monticchio

A detailed compilation of distal tephrostratigraphy comprising the last 20,000 yrs is given for the Central Mediterranean region. A total of 47 distinct ash layers identified in the maar lake sediments of Lago Grande di Monticchio (Basilicata, Southern Italy) are compared with proximal and distal terrestrial-marine tephra deposits in the circum-central Mediterranean region. The results of these studies provide valuable information for reconstructing the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene dispersal of pyroclastic deposits from south Italian explosive volcanoes, in particular Somma-Vesuvius, the Campi Flegrei caldera, Ischia Island and Mount Etna. Prominent tephras are discussed with respect to their reliability as dating and correlation tools in sedimentary records. Ashes from Plinian eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius (i.e. Avellino, Mercato, Greenish, Pomici di Base), for instance, are well-defined by their distribution patterns and their unique composition. The widespread Y-1 tephra from Mount Etna, on the other hand, derived most likely from two distinct Plinian events with changing wind conditions, and therefore becomes a less reliable stratigraphic marker. Statistical–numerical calculations are presented in order to discriminate between Holocene tephras from the Campi Flegrei caldera (i.e. Astroni 1–3, Agnano Monte Spina, Averno 1, Lagno Amendolare), since these ashes are characterized by an almost indistinguishable chemical fingerprint. As a highlight, numerous Campanian eruptions of proposed low-intensity have been identified in the distal site of Monticchio suggesting a revision of existing tephra dispersal maps and re-calculation of eruptive conditions. In summary, the tephra record of Monticchio is one of the key successions for linking both, terrestrial records from Central-southern Italy and marine sequences from the Tyrrhenian, Adriatic and Ionian Seas.     

Early microbial biofilm formation on marine plastic debris

An important aspect of the global problem of plastic debris pollution is plastic buoyancy. There is some evidence that buoyancy is influenced by attached biofilms but as yet this is poorly understood. We submerged polyethylene plastic in seawater and sampled weekly for 3 weeks in order to study early stage processes. Microbial biofilms developed rapidly on the plastic and coincided with significant changes in the physicochemical properties of the plastic. Submerged plastic became less hydrophobic and more neutrally buoyant during the experiment. Bacteria readily colonised the plastic but there was no indication that plastic-degrading microorganisms were present. This study contributes to improved understanding of the fate of plastic debris in the marine environment.     

Is there a superior conceptual groundwater model structure for baseflow simulation?

Previous work has shown that streamflow response during baseflow conditions is a function of storage, but also that this functional relationship varies among seasons and catchments. Traditionally, hydrological models incorporate conceptual groundwater models consisting of linear or non‐linear storage–outflow functions. Identification of the right model structure and model parameterization however is challenging. The aim of this paper is to systematically test different model structures in a set of catchments where different aquifer types govern baseflow generation processes. Nine different two‐parameter conceptual groundwater models are applied with multi‐objective calibration to transform two different groundwater recharge series derived from a soil‐atmosphere‐vegetation transfer model into baseflow separated from streamflow data. The relative performance differences of the model structures allow to systematically improve the understanding of baseflow generation processes and to identify most appropriate model structures for different aquifer types. We found more versatile and more aquifer‐specific optimal model structures and elucidate the role of interflow, flow paths, recharge regimes and partially contributing storages. Aquifer‐specific recommendations of storage models were found for fractured and karstic aquifers, whereas large storage capacities blur the identification of superior model structures for complex and porous aquifers. A model performance matrix is presented, which highlights the joint effects of different recharge inputs, calibration criteria, model structures and aquifer types. The matrix is a guidance to improve groundwater model structures towards their representation of the dominant baseflow generation processes of specific aquifer types. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.