Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms

By construction, the time series for radiative forcing that are used to run the 20c3m experiments, which are implemented by climate models, impart non-stationary movements (either stochastic or deterministic) to the simulated time series for global surface temperature. Here, we determine whether stochastic or deterministic trends are present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature by examining the time series for radiative forcing. Statistical tests indicate that the forcings contain a stochastic trend against the alternative hypothesis that the series are trend stationary with a one-time structural change. This result is consistent with the economic processes that impart a stochastic trend to anthropogenic emissions and the physical processes that integrate emissions in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the stochastic trend in the aggregate measure of radiative forcing also is present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature, which is consistent with the relation between these two variables that is represented by a zero dimensional energy balance model. Finally, we propose that internal weather variability imposed on the stochastic trend in radiative forcings is responsible for statistical results, which gives the impression that global surface temperature is trend stationary with a one-time structural change. We conclude that using the ideas of stochastic trends, cointegration, and error correction can generate reliable conclusions regarding the causes of changes in global surface temperature during the instrumental temperature record.     

A finite element approach to the simulation of hydraulic fractures with lag

We presented a finite‐element‐based algorithm to simulate plane‐strain, straight hydraulic fractures in an impermeable elastic medium. The algorithm accounts for the nonlinear coupling between the fluid pressure and the crack opening and separately tracks the evolution of the crack tip and the fluid front. It therefore allows the existence of a fluid lag. The fluid front is advanced explicitly in time, but an implicit strategy is needed for the crack tip to guarantee the satisfaction of Griffith's criterion at each time step. We enforced the coupling between the fluid and the rock by simultaneously solving for the pressure field in the fluid and the crack opening at each time step. We provided verification of our algorithm by performing sample simulations and comparing them with two known similarity solutions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A numerical model of the internal tide in knight inlet,British Columbia

Abstract

A two‐dimensional, hydrostatic numerical model of the tides in Knight Inlet is compared with observations of velocity and density obtained from three cyclesonde moorings. The observations from a fourth cyclesonde mooring were used to provide boundary data at the open end of the model. The time period in the fjord that the model simulates was a period of high, freshwater runoff, so that the fjord had a distinct, surface layer. The use of high, vertical resolution was avoided by attaching a homogeneous, fresh, surface layer to the top of the model. The density equation was linearized about a mean, fixed density field, and the mixing of density was not allowed.

The model reproduces the semidiurnal (M₂, S₂ and N₂) and diurnal (K₁ and O₁) velocity and density signals in the inlet. The shallow‐water constituents (M₄ and MK₃) are reproduced even though the density equation has been linearized. The fortnightly constituent (MSf) is poorly simulated. When the advection terms in the momentum equation are set to zero, the basic features of the semidiurnal and diurnal constituents are still reproduced, but the shallow‐water constituents are poorly simulated.

The energy flux along the inlet of the M₂ internal tide is insensitive to the advective terms in the momentum equation. The total rate of dissipation of M₂ energy is similar to the energy flux in the M₂ internal tide near the sill, which implies that, according to the model, most of the energy removed from the barotropic tide is fed into the internal tide. The majority of the energy in the M₂ internal tide is dissipated close to the sill of the inlet, but enough of the energy makes its way to the head of the inlet to reflect and set up a recognizable standing wave pattern.     

The use of proxy chemical records in Coral skeletons to ascertain past environmental conditions in Florida Bay

This paper will discuss the use of chemical proxies in coral skeletons to reconstruct the history of salinity (from the δ¹⁸O of the skeleton) and nutrients in the water (from the δ¹³C) in Florida Bay between 1824 and 1994. Monthly salinity and water temperature data collected since 1989 were used to establish a correlation between salinity, temperature, and the δ¹⁸O of the skeleton of the coralSolenastrea bournoni from Lignumvitae Basin in Florida Bay. This relationship explains over 50% of the variance in the δ¹⁸O of the skeleton. Assuming that interannual variations in the temperature of the water are small, we have applied this relationship to the δ¹⁸O measured in the coral skeleton collected from Lignumvitae Basin which has a record between 1824 and 1993. These data provide a revised estimate of salinity variation in Lignumvitae Basin for the period when historical records for salinity were not available, and show that the highest salinity events occurred in the past 30 yr. Using the relationships between the salinity in Lignumvitate Basin and other basins, obtained using a modern dataset, we are able to estimate ranges in salinity for other portions of Florida Bay. Skeletons of specimens of the coral speciesSiderastrea radians collected from other areas of Florida Bay show similar patterns in the δ¹⁸O over the past 10 yr, indicating that corals in most portions of Florida Bay are recording salinity variations in their skeletons and therefore support the idea that salinity variations in different portions of Florida Bay can be related. Fluorescence analysis of the coral from Lignumvitae Basin shows a large change in the magnitude of the 10-yr signal coincident with the construction of the railway, confirming that this event had a significant impact upon Florida Bay. The δ¹³C of the coral skeletons reveals a long-term history of the oxidation of organic material, fixation of carbon by photosynthesis (algal blooms), and the intrusion of marine water into the bay. Since the construction of the railway from Miami to Key West there has been a long-term decrease in the δ¹³C of the coral skeleton from Lignumvitae Basin, suggesting the increased oxidation of organic material in this area. This decrease in δ¹³C appears to have reached a minimum value around 1984 and has increased since this time in the western portions of Florida Bay. The increase may be related to the algal blooms prevalent in the area or alternatively could result from intrusion of more marine water. In the eastern areas, a small increase in the δ¹⁸C between 1984 and 1988 was followed by further decline suggesting more oxidation of organic material. We have also attempted to use the concentration of barium in the coral skeleton as a proxy indicator of the nutrient status in Florida Bay.     

Magnetic fabrics of the Bloodgood Canyon and Shelley Peak Tuffs,southwestern New Mexico: implications for emplacement and alteration processes

Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) of the middle Tertiary Bloodgood Canyon and Shelley Peak Tuffs of the Mogollon-Datil volcanic field has been used to (1) evaluate the ability of AMS to constrain flow lineations in low-susceptibility ash-flow tuffs; (2) establish a correlation between magnetic fabric, magnetic mineralogy, tuff facies, and characteristics of the depositional setting; and (3) constrain source locations of the tuffs. The tuffs are associated with the overlapping Bursum caldera and Gila Cliff Dwellings basin. The high-silica Bloodgood Canyon Tuff fills the Gila Cliff Dwellings basin and occurs as thin outcrops outside of the basin. The older Shelley Peak Tuff occurs as thin outcrops both along the boundary between the two structures, and outside of the complex. AMS data were collected from 16 sites of Bloodgood Canyon Tuff basin fill, 19 sites of Bloodgood Canyon Tuff outflow, and 11 sites of Shelley Peak Tuff. Sites were classified on the basis of within-site clustering of orientations of principal susceptibility axes, based on the categories of Knight et al. (1986). Most microscopically visible oxide minerals in the Bloodgood Canyon Tuff outflow and basin fill, and in the Shelley Peak Tuff are members of the hematite-ilmenite solid solution series. However, IRM acquisition data indicate that Bloodgood Canyon Tuff basin fill and Shelley Peak Tuff have magnetic mineralogy dominated by single- or pseudo-single-domain magnetite, and that the magnetic mineralogy of the Bloodgood Canyon Tuff outflow is dominated by hematite. Hematite in Bloodgood Canyon Tuff outflow is likely to be the result of deuteric and/or low-temperature alteration of magnetite and iron silicate minerals. Bulk magnetic susceptibility is higher in magnetite-dominated ash-flow tuff (Bloodgood Canyon Tuff basin fill and Shelley Peak Tuff) than it is in hematite-dominated ash-flow tuff (Bloodgood Canyon Tuff outflow). Bloodgood Canyon Tuff outflow has the highest total anisotropy (H) of the three units, followed by Shelley Peak Tuff and Bloodgood Canyon Tuff basin fill. All three ash-flow tuffs are genearlly characterized by oblate susceptibility ellipsoids, with those of the Bloodgood Canyon Tuff basin fill nearest to spherical. At high values of total anisotropy, Shelley Peak Tuff susceptibility ellipsoids attain a prolate shape; those of Bloodgood Canyon Tuff outflow attain an increasingly oblate shape. Three factors may influence differences in total anisotropy and susceptibility ellipsoid shape: (1) ash which travelled the greatest distance before deposition may show the best development of magnetic fabric, particularly of magnetic lineation; (2) deposition of ash in a closed basin may inhibit laminar flow throughout the sheet and the resulting development of flow textures; and (3) replacement of magnetite and iron silicates preferentially oriented within the foliation plane by hematite with strong crystalline anisotropy may enhance the magnetic susceptibility within that plane. Scatter in AMS axis orientation within sites may result from: (1) greater orientation inaccuracy in block-sampled than in fielddrilled samples; (2) rheomorphism; and (3) low accuracy of AMS measurement in low-susceptibility ashflow tuffs. Evaluation of flow lineation based on AMS of sites with well-clustered K ₁ axes indicates that (1) Bloodgood Canyon Tuff basin fill flowed along a generally northwest-southeast azimuth; (2) Shelley Peak Tuff located on the boundary of the Bursum caldera and the Gila Cliff Dwellings basin flowed along a nearly east-west azimuth; and (3) Bloodgood Canyon Tuff outflow sites have K ₁ susceptibility axes generally radial to the Bursum-Gila Cliff Dwellings complex, but within-site scatter of K ₁ orientations is generally too large to draw conclusions about flow lineation orientation. Limited petrographic work on pilot thin sections adds flow direction information to AMS-derived flow lineation information.     

Atmospheric mercury near Salmon Falls Creek Reservoir in southern Idaho

Gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) and reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) were measured over 2-week seasonal field campaigns near Salmon Falls Creek Reservoir in south-central Idaho from the summer of 2005 through the fall of 2006 and over the entire summer of 2006 using automated Tekran Hg analyzers. GEM, RGM, and particulate Hg (HgP) were also measured at a secondary site 90 km to the west in southwestern Idaho during the summer of 2006. The study was performed to characterize Hg air concentrations in the southern Idaho area for the first time, estimate Hg dry deposition rates, and investigate the source of observed elevated concentrations. High seasonal variability was observed with the highest GEM (1.91 ± 0.9 ng m⁻³) and RGM (8.1 ± 5.6 pg m⁻³) concentrations occurring in the summer and lower values in the winter (1.32 ± 0.3 ng m⁻³, 3.2 ± 2.9 pg m⁻³ for GEM, RGM, respectively). The summer-average HgP concentrations were generally below detection limit (0.6 ± 1 pg m⁻³). Seasonally averaged deposition velocities calculated using a resistance model were 0.034 ± 0.032, 0.043 ± 0.040, 0.00084 ± 0.0017 and 0.00036 ± 0.0011 cm s⁻¹ for GEM (spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively) and 0.50 ± 0.39, 0.40 ± 0.31, 0.51 ± 0.43 and 0.76 ± 0.57 cm s⁻¹ for RGM. The total annual RGM + GEM dry deposition estimate was calculated to be 11.9 ± 3.3 μg m⁻², or about 2/3 of the total (wet + dry) deposition estimate for the area. Periodic elevated short-term GEM (2.2–12 ng m⁻³) and RGM (50–150 pg m⁻³) events were observed primarily during the warm seasons. Back-trajectory modeling and PSCF analysis indicate predominant source directions to the SE (western Utah, northeastern Nevada) and SW (north-central Nevada) with fewer inputs from the NW (southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho).     

An objective analysis of the relationship between quality of life and socio-economic characteristics in Kumasi,Ghana

Increasing urbanisation and the growth of urban areas in cities in developing countries present major challenges for local governments, policy makers and urban planners even though the phenomenon offers opportunities. Studies focusing on the quality of life (QoL) help in assessing objectively, urban conditions which inform urban policy and planning. Using Kumasi as a case study, this paper investigates the relationship between quality of life and socio-economic characteristics such as gender, age, marital status, educational background, household income and housing type. To this end, the paper uses data from 500 households to examine the relationship between urban dwellers socio-economic characteristics and quality of life index in Kumasi. Findings indicated that objective QoL varied considerably with some of the socio-economic variables (household income and housing type) in the study area and these variables contributed significantly to the objective quality of life in Kumasi. The paper concludes that there are six (6) dimension of quality of life in Kumasi.     

Late Pleistocene glaciation of the Mt Giluwe volcano,Papua New Guinea

The Mt Giluwe shield volcano was the largest area glaciated in Papua New Guinea during the Pleistocene. Despite minimal cooling of the sea surface during the last glacial maximum, glaciers reached elevations as low as 3200 m. To investigate changes in the extent of ice through time we have re-mapped evidence for glaciation on the southwest flank of Mt Giluwe. We find that an ice cap has formed on the flanks of the mountain on at least three, and probably four, separate occasions. To constrain the ages of these glaciations we present 39 new cosmogenic ³⁶Cl exposure ages complemented by new radiocarbon dates. Direct dating of the moraines identifies that the maximum extent of glaciation on the mountain was not during the last glacial maximum as previously thought. In conjunction with existing potassium/argon and radiocarbon dating, we recognise four distinct glacial periods between 293–306 ka (Gogon Glaciation), 136–158 ka (Mengane Glaciation), centred at 62 ka (Komia Glaciation) and from >20.3–11.5 ka (Tongo Glaciation). The temperature difference relative to the present during the Tongo Glaciation is likely to be of the order of at least 5 °C which is a minimum difference for the previous glaciations. During the Tongo Glaciation, ice was briefly at its maximum for less than 1000 years, but stayed near maximum levels for nearly 4000 years, until about 15.4 ka. Over the next 4000 years there was more rapid retreat with ice free conditions by the early Holocene.     

An essay on the interactions between climate and society

There has been increasing concern about the lack of involvement by social scientists and humanists in a global change program, although many social scientists are already directly involved in various aspects of research on environmental change, and their research interests are clearly central to a global change research agenda. Based on a historical review, the role of social science disciplines as well as social science institutes in an emerging multidecadal global change program is discussed. Both “plan of action” and “plan of inaction” are suggested to avoid potential pitfalls due to the rush development of a social science program into the existing global climate change problem.