台风菲特暴雨诊断分析

"菲特"台风暴雨具有阶段性特征,包括台风远距离降水、台风倒槽和内螺旋雨带降水、台风外部螺旋雨带降水、台风残留低压环流与冷空气相互作用降水4个阶段。利用地面观测、气象雷达观测、NCEP分析资料,对"菲特"台风暴雨环流形势进行了分析。引导台风东移的高压东西部具有不同热力属性,东部暖性深厚、西部冷性浅薄。浅薄冷高压阻挡登陆台风继续西移,延长台风倒槽和外围螺旋雨带的降水时间。"丹娜丝"台风的靠近,有利于东南风水汽输送的增强。副热带高压的增强,在黄海上空逼近东移高空槽形成稳定的高空急流。文章提出与传统垂直风切变大、高空急流强的冷空气阻挡型不同的侵入型冷空气和台风相互作用形势。侵入型冷空气从低层入侵,影响台风残留低压的外围环流。在低压外围环流的北部形成较强的东北风,并与海上的东风对峙辐合形成海岸锋。冷空气侵入型的空间不对称特征明显:对流有效位能东高西低,垂直风切变西北高东南低。残留低压的中层受冷空气影响较小,沿海地区的东南风持续的时间更长。中层高位涡区与地面海岸锋的互应,为变性的台风残留低压暴雨提供有利条件。     

Socio-political and ecological stresses on traditional pastoral systems: A review

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Pastoralism is a viable socio-economic system-shaped by landless and agro-pastoral communities in many pastoral regions of the world. This system is mainly based...     

Risk assessment of a vertical breakwater using possibility and evidence theories

This paper proposes a preliminary investigation of possibility and evidence theories in a risk analysis of a vertical breakwater. The results obtained from both theories are presented and compared to the Monte Carlo simulations. This study indicates that the evidence theory approach is more flexible than the possibility theory approach and may provide a useful tool for a joint handling of variability and imprecision in the computation of risk. On the other hand, the possibility theory approach may have a good potential to be used for risk assessment of coastal structures, when sufficient data are not available.     

Return period and risk calculations for ocean wave energy applications

The statistical behavior of wave energy at a site strongly depends on the wave characteristics. Wave energy converters fail to produce energy when there are no sufficiently available wave heights. Hence, evaluation of return periods and risk values of the minimum wave height becomes important for wave energy studies. A time index representing the minimum wave height is proposed here for ocean wave applications. Persistence plays a significant role in the calculation of return period and risk. Although ignoring the serial independence makes calculations easy, it leads to overestimations of the real status. In this paper, return periods and risk values are compared with each other by taking into consideration independent and dependent situations. Application of the study is achieved for the stations located in the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.     

Comparative study of epiphytic algal communities on Typha latifolia L. and Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Steud in the shallow Gala Lake (European Part of Turkey)

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - The aim of this study was to determine the species composition, biodiversity and, relative abundance of epiphytic algae and their relationship with...     

Age of the Pomeranian ice‐marginal position in northeastern Germany determined by Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating of glaciofluvial sediments

Lüthgens, C., Böse, M. & Preusser, F. 2011: Age of the Pomeranian ice‐marginal position in northeastern Germany determined by Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating of glaciofluvial sediments. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2011.00211.x. ISSN 0300‐9843 The Pomeranian ice margin is one of the most prominent ice‐marginal features of the Weichselian glaciation in northern Europe. Previous results of surface‐exposure dating (SED) of this ice margin disagree with established chronologies and ice retreat patterns, i.e. are much younger than previously expected. We crosscheck the age of the Pomeranian ice‐marginal position in northeastern Germany using single‐grain quartz Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating of glaciofluvial sediments. OSL dating indicates an active ice margin between 20.1±1.6 ka and 19.4±2.4 ka forming outwash plains attributed to the Pomeranian ice‐marginal position. On the basis of these results, we suggest a critical reassessment of previous SED data available for the Pomeranian ice‐marginal position within their respective regional geomorphological contexts. From a process‐based point of view, SED ages derived from glacigenic boulders document the stabilization of the landscape after melting of dead ice and landscape transformation under periglacial conditions rather than the presence of an ice margin. SED indicates a first phase of boulder stabilization at around 16.4±0.7 ka, followed by landscape stabilization within the area attributed to the recessional Gerswalder subphase around 15.2±0.5 ka. A final phase of accumulation of glaciolacustrine and glaciofluvial sediments at around 14.7±1.0 ka documents the melting of buried dead ice at that time.     

Interpolation de variables régionales et cartographie automatique: modèle triangulaire hydrologique (MTH) / Interpolation of regional variables and automatic drawing of isoplets

Abstract

The degree of relationship between hydrological variables being independent of time series properties is especially related to the distance between gauging stations of these variables. The linear character of these variables without extreme deviation in time makes possible the use of a new method of interpolation. Following is an explanation of a method which generalizes methods of linear interpolation of two points. Computing the variable values at each point, automatic drawing of isoplets and the water height in a basin can be easily computed by this method.     

Spillway design floods in Sweden: I. New guidelines

Abstract

The new Swedish guidelines for the estimation of design floods for dams and spillways are presented, with emphasis on high-hazard dams. The method is based on a set of regional design precipitation sequences, rescaled for basin area, season and elevation above sea level, and a full hydrological model. A reservoir operation strategy is also a fundamental component of the guidelines. The most critical combination of flood generating factors is searched by systematically inserting the design precipitation sequence into a ten year climatological record, where the initial snowpack has been replaced by a statistical 30-year snowpack. The new guidelines are applicable to single reservoir systems as well as more complex hydroelectric schemes, and cover snowmelt floods, rain floods and combinations of the two. In order to study the probabilities of the computed floods and to avoid regional inconsistencies, extensive comparisons with observed floods and frequency analyses have been carried out.