The maximum expected earthquake magnitudes in different future time intervals of six seismotectonic zones of Iran and its surroundings

One of the crucial components in seismic hazard analysis is the estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude and associated uncertainty. In the present study, the uncertainty related to the maximum expected magnitude μ is determined in terms of confidence intervals for an imposed level of confidence. Previous work by Salamat et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 174:763-777, 2017) shows the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible magnitude m_max for high levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones of Iran. In this work, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude μ is calculated in a predefined finite time interval and imposed level of confidence. For this, we use a conceptual model based on a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitudes with constant b-value and calculate the posterior distribution of μ for the time interval T_f in future. We assume a stationary Poisson process in time and a Gutenberg-Richter relation for magnitudes. The upper bound of the magnitude confidence interval is calculated for different time intervals of 30, 50, and 100 years and imposed levels of confidence α?=?0.5, 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01. The posterior distribution of waiting times T_f to the next earthquake with a given magnitude equal to 6.5, 7.0, and 7.5 are calculated in each zone. In order to find the influence of declustering, we use the original and declustered version of the catalog. The earthquake catalog of the territory of Iran and surroundings are subdivided into six seismotectonic zones Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh, and Makran. We assume the maximum possible magnitude m_max?=?8.5 and calculate the upper bound of the confidence interval of μ in each zone. The results indicate that for short time intervals equal to 30 and 50 years and imposed levels of confidence 1???α?=?0.95 and 0.90, the probability distribution of μ is around μ?=?7.16???8.23 in all seismic zones.     

Declustering of Iran earthquake catalog (1983–2017) using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model

The main goal of this article is to decluster Iranian plateau seismic catalog by the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and compare the results with some older methods. For this purpose, Iranian plateau bounded in 24°–42°N and 43°–66°E is subdivided into three major tectonic zones: (1) North of Iran (2) Zagros (3) East of Iran. The extracted earthquake catalog had a total of 6034 earthquakes (Mw?>?4) in the time span 1983–2017. The ETAS model is an accepted stochastic approach for seismic evaluation and declustering earthquake catalogs. However, this model has not yet been used to decluster the seismic catalog of Iran. Until now, traditional methods like the Gardner and Knopoff space–time window method and the Reasenberg link-based method have been used in most studies for declustering Iran earthquake catalog. Finally, the results of declustering by the ETAS model are compared with result of Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5):1363–1367, 1974), Uhrhammer (Earthq Notes 57(1):21, 1986), Gruenthal (pers. comm.) and Reasenberg (Geophys Res 90:5479–5495, 1985) declustering methods. The overall conclusion is difficult, but the results confirm the high ability of the ETAS model for declustering Iranian earthquake catalog. Use of the ETAS model is still in its early steps in Iranian seismological researches, and more parametric studies are needed.     

A three-dimensional drift pushover method for unsymmetrical plan buildings

The drift pushover analysis method for tall and regular buildings is extended in this paper to the third dimension. The focus of study is on the structures with important torsional response. For this purpose, 10, 15, 20 and 30-story steel moment frame buildings having unsymmetrical plans with 5–30% eccentricity ratios are studied. For evaluation of accuracy, nonlinear dynamic response of the buildings is determined under a consistent suit of earthquake ground motions. The maxima of the story drifts and shears and cumulative plastic hinge rotations of stories are calculated under the ground motions and their averages along with those of the modal pushover procedure are compared with the results of the presented method. The comparative analysis establishes the good accuracy of the three dimensional drift pushover method.     

Recent development of the earthquake strong motion-intensity catalog and intensity prediction equations for Iran

This study aims to develop a new earthquake strong motion-intensity catalog as well as intensity prediction equations for Iran based on the available data. For this purpose, all the sites which had both recorded strong motion and intensity values throughout the region were first searched. Then, the data belonging to the 306 identified sites were processed, and the results were compiled as a new strong motion-intensity catalog. Based on this new catalog, two empirical equations between the values of intensity and the ground motion parameters (GMPs) for the Iranian earthquakes were calculated. At the first step, earthquake “intensity” was considered as a function of five independent GMPs including “Log (PHA),” “moment magnitude (M_W),” “distance to epicenter,” “site type,” and “duration,” and a multiple stepwise regression was calculated. Regarding the correlations between the parameters and the effectiveness coefficients of the predictors, the Log (PHA) was recognized as the most effective parameter on the earthquake “intensity,” while the parameter “site type” was removed from the equations since it was determines as the least significant variable. Then, at the second step, a simple ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was fitted only between the parameters intensity and the Log (PHA) which resulted in more over/underestimated intensity values comparing to the results of the multiple intensity-GMPs regression. However, for rapid response purposes, the simple OLS regression may be more useful comparing to the multiple regression due to its data availability and simplicity. In addition, according to 50 selected earthquakes, an empirical relation between the macroseismic intensity (I₀) and M_W was developed.     

Utilization of waste coral for biodiesel production via transesterification of soybean oil

In the present study, the waste coral was utilized as a source of calcium oxide for transesterification of soybean oil into biodiesel (methyl esters). Characterization results revealed that the main component of the waste coral is calcium carbonate which transformed into calcium oxide when calcined above 700 °C. The Box–Behnken design of experiment was carried out, and the results were analyzed using response surface methodology. Calcination temperature, methanol– soybean oil molar ratio and catalyst concentration were chosen as variables. The methyl ester content (wt%) was response which must be maximized. A second-order model was obtained to predict methyl ester content as a function of these variables. Each variable was placed in the three low, medium and high levels (calcination temperature of 700, 800 and 900 °C; catalyst concentration of 3, 6 and 9 wt%; methanol-to-oil ratios of 12:1, 18:1 and 24:1). The optimum conditions from the experiment were found that the calcination temperature of 900 °C, catalyst concentration of 6 wt% and methanol-to-oil ratio of 12:1. Under these conditions, methyl ester content reached to 100 wt%. The waste catalyst was capable of being reused up to 4 times without much loss in the activity.     

Seismic ground amplification induced by box-shaped tunnels

The growing use of underground structures, specifically to facilitate urban transportation, highlights the need to scrutinize the effects of such spaces on the seismic ground response as well as the surrounding buildings. In this regard, the seismic ground amplification variations in the vicinity of single and twin box-shaped tunnels subjected to SV waves have been investigated by the finite difference method. To evaluate the effects, generalizable dimensionless diagrams based on the results of parametric numerical analysis considering factors such as variations in the tunnels’ depth, the distances between the tunnels, tunnel lining flexibility, and input wave frequency, have been presented. In addition, to assess the effects of underground box-shaped tunnels on the response spectrum of the ground surface, seven selected accelerograms have been matched based on a specific design spectrum for the stiff soil condition of Eurocode 8 (CEN, 2006). The results underline the significant amplification effect of the box-shaped tunnels on the ground motions, specifically in the case of horizontal twin tunnels, which should be given more attention in current seismic design practices for surface structures.

     

Tracing water resources flows by complementary use of hydrological and water accounting models

Historically, there has been a dispute over water allocation between users and policymakers in Iran's Zayandeh-Roud Basin (ZRB). In this study, we used the “System of Environmental-Economic Accounting for Water” (SEEAW) framework in combination with the hydrologic model “Soil and Water Assessment Tool” (SWAT) to achieve the water balance in ZRB. We used SEEAW to combine a wide range of water-related statistics across stakeholders and SWAT to evaluate the unknown agricultural water use. The SWAT model is calibrated based on the stream flows and crop yields in the basin. The model assess the renewable water of the basin into two components, about 363 and 70 mm as green and blue water, respectively. Also results from the physical water supply and water use tables demonstrates that the agricultural sector uses 78% of the total renewable freshwater, followed by the residential, 16%, and the industrial sector, 6%. The flows of water from source to services in ZRB are traced based on the water supply and water use tables. The flow diagram shows that 8 MCM of industrial reused water was transferred to the agricultural sector, and 137 MCM and 18 MCM of water from the wastewater treatment plants to the agricultural and industrial sectors, respectively. Furthermore, the results show that the index of the basin dependence on groundwater resources is high (61%), the value of water stress is high (0.88) and the dependence of the basin on transboundary water resources is 30%. Therefore, this method is highly beneficial for achieving a conceptual water balance in disputed basins without enough agricultural water uses data.     

Strong motion dataset of Turkey: data processing and site classification

Strong motion records of Turkey are studied in order to prepare a catalog to be used as a database for further studies (for instance empirical attenuation laws). The network started to be installed in 1973, and the first record was obtained in 1976. The instruments are of SMA-1 analog recorders and SIG SM-2 and GeoSys GSR-16 digital types. Out of a total of 426 records released on the web sites of the General Directorate of the Disaster Affairs and of Kandili Observatory, a set of 210 records was selected with a satisfactory quality, for which it was possible to associate correctly determined source parameters (source magnitudes and epicentral distances). Most of the records are obtained from around North and East Anatolian Fault zones, as well as from western and southwestern parts of Turkey. The main outcome of this paper is a strong motion catalog of Turkey, with the indication of site conditions, of the frequency band of the reliability of the records, peak values of acceleration, velocity and displacements, source parameters (magnitude, epicentral and macroseismic distances), intensity and finally the fault plane solutions whenever possible. The aim is to have, with other regional dataset, a homogenous and good quality dataset.     

Assessment of reference evapotranspiration across an arid urban environment having poor data monitoring system

Estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in urban areas is challenging but essential in arid urban climates. To evaluate ET₀ in an urban environment and non-urban areas, air temperature and relative humidity were measured at five different sites across the arid city of Isfahan, Iran, over 4 years. Wind speed and sunshine hours were obtained from an urban surrounding weather station over the same period and used to estimate ET₀. Calculated ET₀ was compared with satellite-based ET₀ retrieved from the MOD16A2 PET product. Although MODIS PET was strongly correlated with the Valiantzas equation, it overestimated ET₀ and showed average accuracy (r = 0.93–0.94, RMSE = 1.18–1.28 mm/day, MBE = 0.73–0.84 mm/day). The highest ET₀ differences between an urban green space and a non-urban area were 1.1 and 0.87 mm/day, which were estimated by ground measurements and MODIS PET, respectively. The sensitivity of ET₀ to wind speed and sunshine hours indicated a significant effect on cumulative ET₀ at urban sites compared to the non-urban site, which has a considerable impact on the amount of irrigation required in those areas. Although MODIS PET requires improvement to accurately reflect field level microclimate conditions affecting ET₀, it is beneficial to hydrological applications and water resource managers especially in areas where data is limited. In addition, our results indicated that using limited data methods or meteorological data from regional weather stations, leads to incorrect estimation of ET₀ in urban areas. Therefore, decision-makers and urban planners should consider the importance of precisely estimating ET₀ to optimize management of urban green space irrigation, especially in arid and semi-arid climates such as the city of Isfahan.     

An Improved Workflow for Permeability Estimation from Image Logs with Uncertainty Quantification

Natural Resources Research - Production forecasts are extremely sensitive to the spatial distribution of certain reservoir parameters, especially permeability, which controls fluid flow and...