The orbit and size distribution of small Solar System objects orbiting the Sun interior to the Earth's orbit

We present the first observational measurement of the orbit and size distribution of small Solar System objects whose orbits are wholly interior to the Earth's (Inner Earth Objects, IEOs, with aphelion <0.983 AU). We show that we are able to model the detections of near-Earth objects (NEO) by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) using a detailed parameterization of the CSS survey cadence and detection efficiencies as implemented within the Jedicke et al. [Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Spahr, T., Petit, J.M., Bottke, W.F., 2003. Icarus 161, 17-33] survey simulator and utilizing the Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] model of the NEO population's size and orbit distribution. We then show that the CSS detections of 4 IEOs are consistent with the Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] IEO model. Observational selection effects for the IEOs discovered by the CSS were then determined using the survey simulator in order to calculate the corrected number and H distribution of the IEOs. The actual number of IEOs with H<18 (21) is 36±26 (530±240) and the slope of the H magnitude distribution (∝¹⁰αH) for the IEOs is . The slope is consistent with previous measurements for the NEO population of αNEO=0.35±0.02 [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] and αNEO=0.39±0.013 [Stuart, J.S., Binzel, R.P., 2004. Icarus 170, 295-311]. Based on the agreement between the predicted and observed IEO orbit and absolute magnitude distributions there is no indication of any non-gravitational effects (e.g. Yarkovsky, tidal disruption) affecting the known IEO population.     

Integrated scenarios of acidification and climate change in Asia and Europe

Two integrated assessment models, one for climate change on a global scale (IMAGE 2) and another for the regional analysis of the impacts of acidifying deposition (RAINS), have been linked to assess the impacts of reducing sulphur emission on ecosystems in Asia and Europe. While such reductions have the beneficial effect of reducing the deposition of acidifying compounds and thus the exceedance of critical loads of ecosystems, they also reduce the global level of sulphate aerosols and thus enhance the impact of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, and consequently increase the risk of potential vegetation changes. The calculations indicate that about 70% of the ecosystems in Asia would be affected by either acid deposition or climate change in the year 2100 (up from 20% in 1990) for both sulphur emission scenarios (controlled and uncontrolled), whereas in Europe the impacted area would remain at a level of about 50%, with a dip early next century. More generally, the effects of reducing sulphur emissions and thus enhancing climate change would about balance for the Asian region, whereas for Europe the desirable impact of sulphur emission reductions would greatly outweigh its undesirable effects.     

Risk-based characterisation of an urban building site

The evaluation of the underground soil stratigraphy is a key aspect in geotechnical site characterisation. However, these means of site exploration are only pinholing subsoil conditions and expert knowledge is needed to understand subsoil conditions in order to build a reliable geological-geotechnical model. This contribution employs a geostatistical simulation methodology for the simulation of random fields representing geological uncertainty. This combines borehole data and expert knowledge via a mathematical framework. Moreover a risk-based site characterisation scheme is developed for urban site characterisation. This novel characterisation scheme offers additional insight into the effects of large-scale, geological spatial variability by using fragility curves to quantify these effects.     

Spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of M9.0 megathrust earthquake sequences of wood‐frame houses in Victoria,British Columbia,Canada

Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management.     

Magnetic fabrics in rocks from the Möll-Drau Valley (Carinthia,Austria)

A large suite of rock cores was collected from localities lying on linear profiles across the Möll-Drau Valley (in Carinthia, Austria) for a fabric study to determine the nature of the Möll-Drau Line (MDL) and its place in the Alpine Orogeny. The fabrics of the region show a dominant N-S compression direction in the Kreuzeck Group which transforms to a NE-SW compression direction within the Reisseck Group. This and the large number of prolate sites in the Reisseck Group indicate an overthrusting of the Eastalpine units (Kreuzeck Altkristallin) on to the Penninic units (Reisseck group). The geological and radiometric observations of the MDL suggest that the MDL is an uplifting shear line. If this is so, the magnetic fabrics suggest that this uplift was active after the main N-S compression of the Alpine Orogeny. The complete absence of fabric overprinting due to this uplift also suggests that the activity on the Line was relatively friction free. The distinct fabric differences within the Goldeck and Kreuzeck units indicate that they may have undergone individual block type movements and rotations.     

Visual analytics of delays and interaction in movement data

The analysis of interaction between movement trajectories is of interest for various domains when movement of multiple objects is concerned. Interaction often includes a delayed response, making it difficult to detect interaction with current methods that compare movement at specific time intervals. We propose analyses and visualizations, on a local and global scale, of delayed movement responses, where an action is followed by a reaction over time, on trajectories recorded simultaneously. We developed a novel approach to compute the global delay in subquadratic time using a fast Fourier transform (FFT). Central to our local analysis of delays is the computation of a matching between the trajectories in a so-called delay space. It encodes the similarities between all pairs of points of the trajectories. In the visualization, the edges of the matching are bundled into patches, such that shape and color of a patch help to encode changes in an interaction pattern. To evaluate our approach experimentally, we have implemented it as a prototype visual analytics tool and have applied the tool on three bidimensional data sets. For this we used various measures to compute the delay space, including the directional distance, a new similarity measure, which captures more complex interactions by combining directional and spatial characteristics. We compare matchings of various methods computing similarity between trajectories. We also compare various procedures to compute the matching in the delay space, specifically the Fréchet distance, dynamic time warping (DTW), and edit distance (ED). Finally, we demonstrate how to validate the consistency of pairwise matchings by computing matchings between more than two trajectories.     

Estimating surface runoff and groundwater recharge in an urban catchment using a water balance approach

Hydrogeology Journal - Land-use changes often have significant impact on the water cycle, including changing groundwater/surface-water interactions, modifying groundwater recharge zones, and...     

Erratum to: Simulating the impacts of climate change, prices and population on California’s residential electricity consumption

We discovered an error in the computer code generating the simulation results in section 5 of Auffhammer and Aroonruengsawat (Clim Chang 109(Supplement 1):191–210, 2011). While four out of five main findings are unaffected, the simulated impacts of climate change on annual residential electricity consumption are an order of magnitude smaller, which is consistent with findings in the previous literature.     

Relativistic satellite orbits: central body with higher zonal harmonics

Satellite orbits around a central body with arbitrary zonal harmonics are considered in a relativistic framework. Our starting point is the relativistic Celestial Mechanics based upon the first post-Newtonian approximation to Einstein’s theory of gravity as it has been formulated by Damour et al. (Phys Rev D 43:3273–3307, 1991; 45:1017–1044, 1992; 47:3124–3135, 1993; 49:618–635, 1994). Since effects of order \((\mathrm{GM}/c^2R) \times J_k\) with \(k \ge 2\) for the Earth are very small (of order \( 7 \times 10^{-10}\,\times \,J_k\)) we consider an axially symmetric body with arbitrary zonal harmonics and a static external gravitational field. In such a field the explicit \(J_k/c^2\)-terms (direct terms) in the equations of motion for the coordinate acceleration of a satellite are treated first with first-order perturbation theory. The derived perturbation theoretical results of first order have been checked by purely numerical integrations of the equations of motion. Additional terms of the same order result from the interaction of the Newtonian \(J_k\)-terms with the post-Newtonian Schwarzschild terms (relativistic terms related to the mass of the central body). These ‘mixed terms’ are treated by means of second-order perturbation theory based on the Lie-series method (Hori–Deprit method). Here we concentrate on the secular drifts of the ascending node \(<\!{\dot{\Omega }}\!>\) and argument of the pericenter \(<\!{\dot{\omega }}\!>\). Finally orders of magnitude are given and discussed.