Comparison of three geostatistical methods for hydrofacies simulation: a test on alluvial sediments

The hydrodispersive properties of porous sediments are strongly influenced by the heterogeneity at fine scales, which can be modeled by geostatistical simulations. In order to improve the assessment of the properties of three different geostatistical simulation methods (Sequential indicator simulation, SISIM; Transition probability geostatistical simulation, T-PROGS; Multiple point simulation, MPS) a comparison test at different scales was performed for a well-exposed aquifer analogue. In the analysed volume (approximately 30,000?m³) four operative hydrofacies have been recognised: very fine sand and silt, sand, gravelly sand and open framework gravel. Several equiprobable realizations were computed with SISIM, MPS and T-PROGS for a test volume of approximately 400?m³ and for the entire volume, and the different outcomes were compared with visual inspection and connectivity analysis of the very or poorly permeable structures. The comparison of the different simulations shows that the geological model is best reproduced when the simulations are realised separately for each highest rank depositional element and subsequently merged. Moreover, the three methods yield different images of the volume; in particular MPS is efficient in mapping the geometries of the most represented hydrofacies, whereas SISIM and T-PROGS can account for the distribution of the less represented facies.     

Quantitative methods for estimating flood fatalities: towards the introduction of loss-of-life estimation in the assessment of flood risk

Risk, including flood risk, can be defined as ??the combination of the probability of an event and its consequences??. Assessing and managing the risk from flooding should explicitly include the estimation of impacts to people. Extensive research is currently ongoing looking at both quantitative and qualitative approaches for assessing flood impacts on people. Although there is some literature available on such approaches, examples of methodological and routinely applications of these methodologies as part of flood risk assessments are rare. This paper focuses on quantitative approaches for estimating impacts of flooding to people, notably on methods for assessing fatality numbers associated with flooding. Three methods for assessing losses of life are discussed in detail. The methods discussed here constitute the forefront of research in Canada, UK and The Netherlands. These methods provide an assessment of the physical consequences of flooding on people and can be used to introduce the impacts to people as quantitative metric for the assessment of flood risk. In this paper, the three methodologies are discussed and applied in a UK case study reproducing the 1953 East Coast flood event. This study aims to provide a comprehensive comparison on both the reliability and the applicability of the methods. We analyse possible added values on using of these methods in systematic analyses, aiming to provide guidelines for applying these methods for flood fatality risk assessment.     

Seismic waves generated by oscillating buildings: analysis of a release test

A three-stories, base-isolated building located in Rapolla (Potenza, Italy) was tested with a snap-back experiment. Free-field measures were performed using 3D seismometers, located at 10 and 50 m from the buildings in direction of motion and at 10 m from the building in direction transverse to the motion. At each measurement point it was possible to separate the soil amplification effects from two source terms, due to the base-isolated building and to the reaction block. The ground motion was noticeable: at 10 m in the longitudinal direction it was comparable with a small size, near-field earthquake.     

Exponential decay and exciter profile of fast pulses in type IV events

Some fast bursts occurring at 237 MHz during type IV events in association with sawtooth pulsations have been studied. These bursts, when occurring sufficiently isolated from the adjacent pulsating activity, appear to have an exponential decay phase similar to that of fast type III bursts.A computational procedure, based on Fourier transform techniques, has been applied; it allows the computation, for every observed point in the time profile, of the corresponding value for the logarithmic derivative and for the exciter function. The results so far obtained show that the time decay value is of the same order observed for normal type III's. As the bursts studied appear clearly not to be type III's (mainly for their total polarization), but isolated components of pulsation groups, this result may be an interesting indicator of the emission mechanism (plasma waves excitation and its abrupt stop) involved in type IV decimetric pulsations.Proceedings of the Workshop on Radio Continua during Solar Flares, held at Duino (Trieste), Italy, 27–31 May, 1985.     

The climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Italy

In this work 10 years of reports collected by weather amateurs are used to define a preliminary climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Italy. The results show behaviors different from those observed in other countries. Generally, tornadoes and waterspouts are more frequent in late summer and autumn than in the other seasons. The seasonality of tornadoes and waterspouts appears different for different Italian zones, in particular in the Po Valley and Friulian plain and coast (south to the Alps) tornadoes and waterspouts are more frequent in spring and early summer while in the Tirrenian and Ionian coasts (western and southern Italy), tornadoes and waterspouts are more frequent in late summer and autumn. As observed in other studies (Brooks, H., E. and Doswell, C. A. III, 2001. Some aspects of the international climatology of tornadoes by damage classification. Atmos. Res., 56, 191–201.) Italian tornadoes and waterspouts are statistically weaker than in other countries but this difference cannot be completely ascribed to the presence of waterspouts. The “CAPE Storm-Relative-Helicity diagrams” and “Shear Magnitude diagrams” obtained for Italian tornadoes and waterspouts show different characteristics than those obtained for US. The cause of these differences is still unknown, it can rely in the sample selection (problems with the concept of proximity sounding) or in a real climatic effect.     

Quantum-mechanical modeling of minerals at high pressures. The role of the Hamiltonian in a case study: the beryl (Al4Be6Si12O36)

Ab initio calculations of the beryl structure at room and higher pressures, and of its equation of state, have been performed both at the Hartree–Fock (HF) and density functional (DFT) level. In the latter case, three different hybrid HF/DFT Hamiltonians have been employed, in which the exact non-local exchange contribution increases from 20% (B3LYP Hamiltonian, indicated with the symbol F20) to 50% (F50) and 60% (F60). Within the DFT series, the equilibrium volume (V ₀) increases as the HF exchange contribution decreases; with respect to the experimental datum, F20 overestimates V ₀ by 2.9%, whereas F60 underestimates it by 0.9%; F50 (and HF) volume is very close to the experimental datum (error less than −0.1%). All four Hamiltonians overestimate the bulk modulus (K ₀); with respect to the experimental datum (obtained in the present work) [K ₀=179(1) GPa], the F20 Hamiltonian leads to the smallest error (+2.7%); the corresponding errors for the F50, F60 and HF Hamiltonians are +13.2, +16.2 and +16.3%, respectively. In the case of F20, in spite of the small error in K ₀, the relatively large error in V ₀ leads to an incorrect P(V) equation of state, which significantly overestimates the pressure at a given volume, compared to the experimental one at the same volume; the maximum error in the pressure range investigated is at the largest pressure (P _max=26.4 GPa) and amounts to +34.8%. The corresponding errors for the F50, F60 and HF Hamiltonians are +12.9, +5.7 and +15.5%.     

Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment at the basin scale

We propose a probabilistic model to determine landslide hazard at the basin scale. The model predicts where landslides will occur, how frequently they will occur, and how large they will be. We test the model in the Staffora River basin, in the northern Apennines, Italy. For the study area, we prepare a multi-temporal inventory map through the interpretation of multiple sets of aerial photographs taken between 1955 and 1999. We partition the basin into 2243 geo-morpho-hydrological units, and obtain the probability of spatial occurrence of landslides by discriminant analysis of thematic variables, including morphological, lithological, structural and land use. For each mapping unit, we obtain the landslide recurrence by dividing the total number of landslide events inventoried in the unit by the time span of the investigated period. Assuming that landslide recurrence will remain the same in the future, and adopting a Poisson probability model, we determine the exceedance probability of having one or more landslides in each mapping unit, for different periods. We obtain the probability of landslide size by analysing the frequency–area statistics of landslides, obtained from the multi-temporal inventory map. Assuming independence, we obtain a quantitative estimate of landslide hazard for each mapping unit as the joint probability of landslide size, of landslide temporal occurrence and of landslide spatial occurrence.