Analyses on granular mass movement mechanics and deformation with distinct element numerical modeling: implications for large-scale rock and debris avalanches

A large-scale avalanche of Earth material is modeled here as a granular flow using a distinct element numerical model PFC ^2D. Such failures occur in a variety of geological settings and are known to occur frequently over geologic time-scales transporting significant volumes of material basinward. Despite this, they remain poorly understood. The model used here begins with a listric failure, typical of the flank collapse of a volcanic cone, and describes the movement of an assembly of several thousand particles from failure to deposition. Within the model, each particle possesses its own material properties and interacts with its immediate neighbors and/or the basal boundary during emplacement. The general mechanics of the particle assembly are observed by monitoring the stresses, displacements, and velocities of distinct sections of the avalanche body. We monitor the avalanches’ energy regime (e.g., gravitational influence, energy dissipation by friction, kinetic energy evolution, and avalanche body strain). The addition of colored markers of varying geometry to the pre-failure avalanche was also used to make qualitative observations on the internal deformation that occurs during avalanche emplacement. A general stretching and thinning of the avalanche is observed. Monitoring of vertical and horizontal variations in stress, strain, porosity, and relative particle stability indicate that the lower more proximal sections of the avalanche are subject to higher stresses. These stresses are observed to be most significant during the initial phases of failure but decline thereafter; a situation likely to be conducive to block fragmentation and in developing a basal shear layer in real-world events. The model also shows how an avalanche which is initially influenced purely by gravity (potential energy) develops into a fully flowing assemblage as downslope momentum is gained and kinetic energy increases. The horizontal transition where the failure meets the run-out surface is recognized as a key area in emplacement evolution. The model has particular relevance to volcanic flank collapses and consequently the implications of the model to these types of failure and the geological products that result are considered in detail although the model is relevant to any form of large-scale rock or debris avalanche.     

Cretaceous–Tertiary geology of the Gangdese Arc in the Linzhou area, southern Tibet

Knowledge of the Cretaceous–Tertiary history of upper crustal shortening and magmatism in Tibet is fundamental to placing constraints on when and how the Tibetan plateau formed. In the Lhasa terrane of southern Tibet, the widely exposed angular unconformity beneath uppermost Cretaceous–lower Tertiary volcanic-bearing strata of the Linzizong Formation provides an excellent geologic and time marker to distinguish between deformation that occurred before vs. during the Indo-Asian collision. In the Linzhou area, located  30 km north of the city of Lhasa, a > 3-km-thick section of the Linzizong Formation lies unconformably on Cretaceous and older rocks that were shortened by both northward- and southward-verging structures during the Late Cretaceous. The Linzizong Formation dips northward in the footwall of a north-dipping thrust system that involves Triassic–Jurassic strata and a granite intrusion in the hanging wall. U–Pb zircon geochronologic studies show that the Linzizong Formation ranges in age from 69 Ma to at least 47 Ma and that the hanging wall granite intrusion crystallized at  52 Ma, coeval with dike emplacement into footwall Cretaceous strata. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar thermochronologic studies suggest slow cooling of the granite between 49 and 42 Ma, followed by an episode of accelerated cooling to upper crustal levels beginning at  42 Ma. The onset of rapid cooling was coeval with the cessation of voluminous arc magmatism in southern Tibet and is interpreted be a consequence of either (1) Tertiary thrusting in this region or (2) regional rock uplift and erosion following removal of overthickened Gangdese arc lower crust and upper mantle or break-off of the Neo-Tethyan oceanic slab.     

Calcareous algae and cyanobacteria

Algae is an informal term used to describe a broad group of simple organisms from the plant kingdom. The organisms included within this grouping are aquatic photosynthetic biota with an extensive range of life habits and forms. These organisms range from micron-sized unicellular forms to giant seaweeds and kelps, which can grow to several metres long. Both benthic and planktonic modes of life are known and display a wide variety of life cycles.     

Ecological Modernization or Aristocratic Conservation? Exploring the Impact of Affluence on Carbon Emissions at the Local Level

Social scientists have debated how affluence impacts carbon emissions at the national level. We conduct an exploratory study at the subnational level to expose another dimension of the affluence–emissions debate. Based on the notion of aristocratic conservation, we hypothesize that affluence is positively related to carbon emissions from consumption activities but negatively related to emissions from production activities. We test these hypotheses using county-level data in the United States for the year 2002. A spatial regression analysis demonstrates that median household income is positively associated with consumption-based emissions; nevertheless, we find evidence of an environmental inequality Kuznets curve in the relationship between median household income and production-based emissions. This finding suggests that the wealthiest counties are able to displace certain types of emissions, specifically those related to energy and industrial production. We discuss the theoretical and political implications of these results.     

Copper Isotopic Analysis in Geological and Biological Reference Materials by MC‐ICP‐MS

The characterisation of relative copper isotope amount ratios (δ⁶⁵Cu) helps constrain a variety of geochemical processes occurring in the geosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere. The accurate and precise determination of δ⁶⁵Cu in matrix reference materials is crucial in the effort to validate measurement methods. With the goal of expanding the number and variety of available geological and biological materials, we have characterised the δ⁶⁵Cu values of ten reference materials by MC‐ICP‐MS using C‐SSBIN model for mass bias correction. SGR‐1b (Green River shale), DOLT‐5 (dogfish liver), DORM‐4 (fish protein), TORT‐3 (lobster hepatopancreas), MESS‐4 (marine sediment) and PACS‐3 (marine sediment) have for the first time been characterised for δ⁶⁵Cu. Additionally, four reference materials (with published δ⁶⁵Cu values) have been characterised: BHVO‐1 (Hawaiian basalt), BIR‐1 (Icelandic basalt), W‐2a (diabase) and Seronorm? Trace Elements Serum L‐1 (human serum). The reference materials measured in this study possess complex and varied matrices with copper mass fractions ranging from 1.2 µg g^?1 to 497 µg g^?1 and δ⁶⁵Cu values ranging from ?0.20‰ to 0.52‰ with a mean expanded uncertainty of ± 0.07‰ (U, k = 2), covering much of the natural copper isotope variability observed in the environment.     

Assessing vulnerability due to sea-level rise in Maui, Hawai‘i using LiDAR remote sensing and GIS

Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens islands and coastal communities due to vulnerable infrastructure and populations concentrated in low-lying areas. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data were used to produce high-resolution DEMs (Digital Elevation Model) for Kahului and Lahaina, Maui, to assess the potential impacts of future SLR. Two existing LiDAR datasets from USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) were compared and calibrated using the Kahului Harbor tide station. Using tidal benchmarks is a valuable approach for referencing LiDAR in areas lacking an established vertical datum, such as in Hawai‘i and other Pacific Islands. Exploratory analysis of the USACE LiDAR ground returns (point data classified as ground after the removal of vegetation and buildings) indicated that another round of filtering could reduce commission errors. Two SLR scenarios of 0.75 (best-case) to 1.9 m (worst-case) (Vermeer and Rahmstorf Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:21527–21532, 2009) were considered, and the DEMs were used to identify areas vulnerable to flooding. Our results indicate that if no adaptive strategies are taken, a loss ranging from $18.7 million under the best-case SLR scenario to $296 million under the worst-case SLR scenario for Hydrologically Connected (HC; marine inundation) and Hydrologically Disconnected (HD; drainage problems due to a higher water table) areas combined is possible for Kahului; a loss ranging from $57.5 million under the best-case SLR scenario to $394 million under the worst-case SLR scenario for HC and HD areas combined is possible for Lahaina towards the end of the century. This loss would be attributable to inundation between 0.55 km² to 2.13 km² of area for Kahului, and 0.04 km² to 0.37 km² of area for Lahaina.     

The gas content and buoyancy of strombolian ash plumes

Plinian plumes erupt with a bulk density greater than that of air, and depend upon air entrainment during their gas-thrust phase to become buoyant; if entrainment is insufficient, the column collapses into a potentially deadly pyroclastic flow. This study shows that strombolian ash plumes can be erupted in an initially buoyant state due to their extremely high initial gas content, and in such cases are thus impervious to column collapse. The high gas content is a consequence of decoupled gas rise in the conduit, in which particles are ultimately incidental. The relations between conduit gas flow, eruption style and plume density are explored here for strombolian scenarios and contrasted with conventional wisdom derived from plinian eruptions. Considering the inherent relation between gas content and initial plume density together with detailed measurements of plume velocities can help unravel ambiguities surrounding conduit processes, eruption styles and hazards at poorly understood volcanoes. Analysis of plume dynamics at Santiaguito volcano, Guatemala adds further support for a model involving decoupled gas rise in the conduit.     

Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission

The potential impact of climate warming on patterns of malaria transmission has been the subject of keen scientific and policy debate. Standard climate models (GCMs) characterize climate change at relatively coarse spatial and temporal scales. However, malaria parasites and the mosquito vectors respond to diurnal variations in conditions at very local scales. Here we bridge this gap by downscaling a series of GCMs to provide high-resolution temperature data for four different sites and show that although outputs from both the GCM and the downscaled models predict diverse but qualitatively similar effects of warming on the potential for adult mosquitoes to transmit malaria, the predicted magnitude of change differs markedly between the different model approaches. Raw GCM model outputs underestimate the effects of climate warming at both hot (3-fold) and cold (8–12 fold) extremes, and overestimate (3-fold) the change under intermediate conditions. Thus, downscaling could add important insights to the standard application of coarse-scale GCMs for biophysical processes driven strongly by local microclimatic conditions.     

Upstream—Downstream Shifts in Peak Recruitment of the Native Olympia Oyster in San Francisco Bay During Wet and Dry Years

Understanding the conditions that drive variation in recruitment of key estuarine species can be important for effective conservation and management of their populations. The Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida) is native to the Pacific coast of North America and has been a target of conservation efforts, though relatively little information on larval recruitment exists across much of its range. This study examined the recruitment of Olympia oysters at biweekly to monthly intervals at four sites in northern San Francisco Bay from 2010 to 2015 (except 2013). Mean monthly temperatures warmed at all sites during the study, while winter (January–April) mean monthly salinity decreased significantly during a wet year (2011), but otherwise remained high as a result of a drought. A recurring peak in oyster recruitment was identified in mid-estuary, in conditions corresponding to a salinity range of 25–30 and >16 °C at the time of settlement (April–November). Higher average salinities and temperatures were positively correlated with greater peak recruitment. Interannual variation in the timing of favorable conditions for recruitment at each site appears to explain geographic and temporal variation in recruitment onset. Higher winter/spring salinities and warmer temperatures at the time of recruitment corresponded with earlier recruitment onset within individual sites. Across all sites, higher winter/spring salinities were also correlated with earlier onset and earlier peak recruitment. Lower winter salinities during 2011 also resulted in a downstream shift in the location of peak recruitment.