Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission

The potential impact of climate warming on patterns of malaria transmission has been the subject of keen scientific and policy debate. Standard climate models (GCMs) characterize climate change at relatively coarse spatial and temporal scales. However, malaria parasites and the mosquito vectors respond to diurnal variations in conditions at very local scales. Here we bridge this gap by downscaling a series of GCMs to provide high-resolution temperature data for four different sites and show that although outputs from both the GCM and the downscaled models predict diverse but qualitatively similar effects of warming on the potential for adult mosquitoes to transmit malaria, the predicted magnitude of change differs markedly between the different model approaches. Raw GCM model outputs underestimate the effects of climate warming at both hot (3-fold) and cold (8–12 fold) extremes, and overestimate (3-fold) the change under intermediate conditions. Thus, downscaling could add important insights to the standard application of coarse-scale GCMs for biophysical processes driven strongly by local microclimatic conditions.     

Economic‐Development Stakeholder Perspectives on Boomtown Dynamics in the Eagle Ford Shale,Texas

Unconventional oil and gas production in the United States reversed a decades‐old trend of rising oil imports, provided an argument for lifting the U.S. crude oil export ban and motivated the development of domestic natural gas export facilities. But the most visible impact of unconventional‐hydrocarbon extraction is the creation of boomtowns in rural regions. Despite widespread media coverage, scholarly analysis of boomtowns is restricted to regional econometric studies with little attention to how economic stakeholders understand and respond to booming economies. Here we analyze interviews with key economic stakeholders in the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. Respondents consider their community's economic success relative to the price of oil and indicate concerns about the deterioration of roads, high housing demand, and skyrocketing wages. We also re‐examine John Gilmore's foundational work on boomtowns in the 1970s in the context of contemporary unconventional extraction.     

The 16th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate and 6th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere Meeting

1. Overview In June 2021, the 16th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate (WAMC) and the 6th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) Meeting (http://polarmet.osu.edu/WAMC;021/) were held online and hosted by the Polar Meteorology Group at Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus,Ohio (Fig. 1).     

Flow Over Hills with Variable Roughness

The effect of variable roughness length upon the flow characteristics over hills is investigated. The changes considered herein cover a range of flow configurations such as the change from a forested (rough) valley with a moderately smooth hilltop to a grassy valley (smooth) with a “spiky” (rough) mountain top. The effect of moving the roughness with respect to the hill is also considered. Although many of the flow features change when the position of the roughness change is varied with respect to the hill these changes have very little impact upon the global properties used within orographic drag parametrization schemes.     

Is public awareness and perceived threat of climate change associated with governmental mitigation targets?

Social scientists and science communicators are concerned about the apparent discrepancy between the scientific consensus on climate change (Anderegg et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:12107–12109, 2010; Doran and Zimmerman EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 90:22–3, 2009) and the general public’s views (Knight Environ Sociol 2:101–113, 2016; Lee et al. Nat Clim Chang 5:1014–1020, 2015). It is reasoned that increased public awareness and perceived threat of climate change may pressure governments to enact policy to counteract climate change (e.g. setting stringent carbon emissions targets). Despite a logical link between public awareness and government-set emissions targets, this relationship remains untested. We examined the relationship between public awareness about and perceived threat of climate change and governmental emissions targets across 71 countries and 1 region. We found a positive association between the proportions of a country’s population that are aware of climate change and the unconditional emissions reduction targets set by that country in the Paris Agreement (Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, the proportion of people in a country who perceive climate change as a personal threat was not associated with higher emissions reduction targets. Our results suggest that public awareness may be an important part of garnering the public support required for policies designed to mitigate climate change to succeed.     

Chaoborus (Diptera: Chaoboridae) mandibles—paleolimnological indicators of the historical status of fish populations in acid-sensitive lakes

Paleolimnological analyses of Chaoborus mandibles were used to assess the status of fish populations over the previous 150 to 300 years in five lakes from the Adirondack region of New York State. Windfall Pond (pH 6.5) has not acidified and currently has viable fish populations. Big Moose Lake (pH 5.0) has acidified in recent years, and the number of fish populations declined from 14 in the 1930's to seven in the early 1980's. The occurrence of only migratory Chaoborus (subgenus Sayomyia) in the cores indicated the long term presence of fish populations in Windfall Pond and Big Moose Lake. Brooktrout Lake (pH 5.0), Deep Lake (pH 4.7) and Upper Wallface Pond (pH 4.8) have all acidified in recent years, and all three are currently fishless. Chaoborus (Sayomyia) was present throughout the Brooktrout Lake core, but the entirely limnetic species, C. americanus, appeared in the topmost interval in the core. The appearance of C. americanus in the top of the core indicated a recent elimination of fish from Brooktrout Lake, probably during the 1970's. Elimination of fish by the 1940's was inferred for Deep Lake because C. americanus appeared above the 1930 level and replaced C. trivittatus as the dominant. Dominance of C. americanus throughout the Upper Wallface Pond core indicated that planktivorous fish were never present. These results strongly suggest that stratigraphic analyses of Chaoborus mandibles provide a useful assessment of the general status of historical fish populations in Adirondack lakes. The technique should be useful in other regions, as well as for applications other than those concerning lake acidification.This is the eleventh of a series of papers to be published by this journal which is a contribution of the Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification (PIRLA) project. Drs. D.F. Charles and D.R. Whitehead are guest editors for this series.     

Black–White and Hispanic–White Segregation in U.S. Counties

Residential segregation in metropolitan areas has been the subject of much research, but this article analyzes patterns of white–black and white–Hispanic segregation in counties across the United States. Our purpose was to understand county variations in this one dimension of inequality. Conceiving of segregation as relative inequality of access to neighborhood resources, we measured segregation in 2000 by the index of dissimilarity (D) calculated by blocks, mapped the index values, and correlated them with census variables. Three filters enabled us to eliminate counties with characteristics that could have corrupted the analyses, leaving us with more than 1,000 counties in each analysis. Both minority groups were less segregated from whites in the West and South and in metropolitan counties. Lower segregation was strongly associated with higher minority socioeconomic status and higher percentages of minorities living in housing built in the 1990s, and Hispanic–white segregation was lower where more Hispanics were U.S.-born or English proficient. The racial threat hypothesis was supported only weakly and inconsistently. Mapping made it possible to identify regional and local patterns of high and low segregation as well as the lower segregation of suburban counties in some large metropolitan areas.