Comparing predictive capability of statistical and deterministic methods for landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study in the northern Apennines (Reggio Emilia Province, Italy)

Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km² in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.     

Socioeconomic impacts of environmental risks in the western Makran zone (Chabahar,Iran)

Natural Hazards - The western Makran subduction zone is capable of producing considerable tsunami run-up heights that penetrate up to 5 km inland. In this study, we show how climate change...     

Using UAV acquired photography and structure from motion techniques for studying glacier landforms: application to the glacial flutes at Isfallsglaciären

Glacier and ice sheet retreat exposes freshly deglaciated terrain which often contains small‐scale fragile geomorphological features which could provide insight into subglacial or submarginal processes. Subaerial exposure results in potentially rapid landscape modification or even disappearance of the minor‐relief landforms as wind, weather, water and vegetation impact on the newly exposed surface. Ongoing retreat of many ice masses means there is a growing opportunity to obtain high resolution geospatial data from glacier forelands to aid in the understanding of recent subglacial and submarginal processes. Here we used an unmanned aerial vehicle to capture close‐range aerial photography of the foreland of Isfallsglaciären, a small polythermal glacier situated in Swedish Lapland. An orthophoto and a digital elevation model with ~2 cm horizontal resolution were created from this photography using structure from motion software. These geospatial data was used to create a geomorphological map of the foreland, documenting moraines, fans, channels and flutes. The unprecedented resolution of the data enabled us to derive morphological metrics (length, width and relief) of the smallest flutes, which is not possible with other data products normally used for glacial landform metrics mapping. The map and flute metrics compare well with previous studies, highlighting the potential of this technique for rapidly documenting glacier foreland geomorphology at an unprecedented scale and resolution. The vast majority of flutes were found to have an associated stoss‐side boulder, with the remainder having a likely explanation for boulder absence (burial or erosion). Furthermore, the size of this boulder was found to strongly correlate with the width and relief of the lee‐side flute. This is consistent with the lee‐side cavity infill model of flute formation. Whether this model is applicable to all flutes, or multiple mechanisms are required, awaits further study. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

3 Ma以来轨道尺度东亚冬季风演化的模拟研究

轨道尺度东亚冬季风变率对认识第四纪东亚环境演化和北半球冰盖演化具有重要的作用。文章利用德国波茨坦气候影响研究所的中等复杂程度地球系统模式(CLIMBER-2)对过去3 Ma气候和环境的模拟结果,探讨了轨道尺度东亚冬季风演化特征及其变化机制。采用两种指数反映东亚冬季风强度,分别指示中纬度西风强度(EAWMU)和东亚北风强度(EAWMV)。CLIMBER-2较好地模拟出了3 Ma以来地球冰期-间冰期旋回特征,以及第四纪以来全球变冷趋势。东亚冬季风在过去3 Ma以来呈现逐渐增强的趋势,EAWMV和EAWMU分别在约2.6 Ma和约1.5 Ma突然增强。EAWMV(EAWMU)在约2.2 Ma(约1.5 Ma)之前主要以20 ka岁差周期为主导,约2.2~1.0 Ma(约1.5~1.0 Ma)的转型期以41 ka倾角周期和20 ka岁差周期为主导,约1.0 Ma之后则均出现100 ka、41 ka和20 ka这3个轨道周期特征,并以100 ka偏心率周期为主导。在约2.2 Ma(约1.5 Ma)之前,EAWMV(EAWMU)主要受控于太阳辐射的直接强迫作用,北半球冰盖的作用相对较弱,在此之后北半球冰盖起主导作用,太阳辐射的直接强迫作用相对较弱。因此,第四纪东亚冬季风与北半球冰盖存在复杂的耦合关系,当冰盖规模较小时,它们的关系很弱;反之,当冰盖规模较大时,它们的联系加强。