Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies

Most estimates of the skill of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) for forecasting seasonal climate anomalies have been based on simulations with actual observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as lower boundary forcing. Similarly estimates of the climatological response characteristics of AGCMs used for seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction generally rest on historical simulations using "perfect" SST forecasts. This work examines the errors and biases introduced into the seasonal precipitation response of an AGCM forced with persisted SST anomalies, which are generally considered to constitute a good prediction of SST in the first three-month season. The added uncertainty introduced by the persisted SST anomalies weakens, and in some cases nullifies, the skill of atmospheric predictions that is possible given perfect SST forcing. The use of persisted SST anomalies also leads to changes in local signal-to-noise characteristics. Thus, it is argued that seasonal-to-interannual forecasts using AGCMs should be interpreted relative to historical runs that were subject to the same strategy of boundary forcing used in the current forecast in order to properly account for errors and biases introduced by the particular SST prediction strategy. Two case studies are examined to illustrate how the sensitivity of the climate response to predicted SSTs may be used as a diagnostic to suggest improvements to the predicted SSTs.     

High-levels of microplastic pollution in a large,remote, mountain lake

Despite the large and growing literature on microplastics in the ocean, little information exists on microplastics in freshwater systems. This study is the first to evaluate the abundance, distribution, and composition of pelagic microplastic pollution in a large, remote, mountain lake. We quantified pelagic microplastics and shoreline anthropogenic debris in Lake Hovsgol, Mongolia. With an average microplastic density of 20,264 particles km⁻², Lake Hovsgol is more heavily polluted with microplastics than the more developed Lakes Huron and Superior in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Fragments and films were the most abundant microplastic types; no plastic microbeads and few pellets were observed. Household plastics dominated the shoreline debris and were comprised largely of plastic bottles, fishing gear, and bags. Microplastic density decreased with distance from the southwestern shore, the most populated and accessible section of the park, and was distributed by the prevailing winds. These results demonstrate that without proper waste management, low-density populations can heavily pollute freshwater systems with consumer plastics.     

贵州剑河乌溜-曾家崖寒武系第5阶全球层型剖面及点位研究的新资料

贵州剑河八郎乌溜—曾家崖寒武系第5阶底界潜在的全球层型剖面及点位上下的动物群(三叶虫和无铰纲腕足类)有显著的变化;研究的剖面厚约4.5m,穿过首现点位Oryctocephalus indicus。经逐层化石的采集和深入的研究,证实在寒武系第4阶或寒武系第2统顶部Ovatoryctocara granulata-Bathynotus holopygus带与寒武系第5阶或寒武系第3统底部Oryctocephalus indicus带之间大约有20cm的贫化石间隔区。这一动物群的突变是在均一的岩相中发生的,表明该剖面是建立寒武系第5阶(或第3统)底界的全球层型剖面和点位(GSSP)理想剖面。     

Resurrecting beach ridge archaeology: Parallel depositional records from St. Lawrence Island and Cape Krusenstern,Western Alaska

Archaeological sites on gravel beach ridge plains offer a treacherously facile method of reconstructing cultural chronology based on the assumption that settlements were preferentially situated nearest the sea. the initial phase of beach ridge methodology in Alaska dates from its 1930s use by Henry Collins at St. Lawrence Island and its 1950s use by Louis Giddings in Kotzebue Sound. Numerous questions of cultural and depositional chronology remain unresolved. At Gambell, on St. Lawrence Island, three sets of ridges span the period since about 2000 B.P., with a prominent disconformity after Punuk culture times at ca. 1100 B.P. Reviewing the ¹⁴C dates (n = 83) we find that the Gambell sequence (n = 50) broadly parallels that of Kotzebue Sound, especially in the similar erosional disconformity at 1200-1000 B.P., related to increased storminess in the North Pacific. the Cape Krusenstern sequence is only loosely constrained by ¹⁴C dates (n = 33) disproportionately concentrated on 7 of the 114 ridge fragments. the dating of early Choris culture is especially problematic, which seems to occur both before and after the Old Whaling culture, well-dated at 2900-2800 B.P. on the 53rd ridge. However, reanalyzing the depositional sequence, we find that some of the more easterly Choris ridges probably represent erosional events after the Old Whaling occupation.