Probabilistic evaluation of climate change impacts on paddy rice productivity in Japan

Projecting the impacts of climate change includes various uncertainties from physical, biophysical, and socioeconomic processes. Providing a more comprehensive impact projection that better represents the uncertainties is a priority research issue. We used an ensemble-based projection approach that accounts for the uncertainties in climate projections associated with general circulation models (GCMs) and biophysical and empirical parameter values in a crop model. We applied the approach to address the paddy rice yield change in Japan in the 2050s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2081–2100) relative to the 1990s (1981–2000). Seventeen climate projections, nine (eight) climate projections performed by seven (six) GCMs conditional on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B (A2), were included in this projection. In addition, 50 sets of biophysical and empirical parameter values of a large-scale process-based crop model for irrigated paddy rice were included to represent the uncertainties of crop parameter values. The planting windows, cultivation practices, and crop cultivars in the future were assumed to be the same as the level in the baseline period (1990s). The resulting probability density functions conditioned on SRES A1B and A2 indicate projected median yield changes of +?17.2% and +?26.9% in Hokkaido, the northern part of Japan, in the 2050s and 2090s with 90% probability intervals of (??5.2%, +?40.3%) and (+?6.3%, +?51.2%), relative to the 1990s mean yield, respectively. The corresponding values in Aichi, on the Pacific side of Western Japan, are 2.2% and ??0.8%, with 90% probability intervals of (??15.0%, +?14.9%) and (??33.4%, +?17.9%), respectively. We also provided geographical maps of the probability that the future 20-year mean yield will decrease and that the future standard deviation of yield for 20 years will increase. Finally, we investigated the relative contributions of the climate projection and crop parameter values to the uncertainty in projecting yield change in the 2090s. The choice of GCM yielded a relatively larger spread of projected yield changes than that of the other factors. The choice of crop parameter values could be more important than that of GCM in a specific prefecture.     

Dispersion and attenuation of elastic waves due to multiple scattering from cracks

Multiple scattering from cracks is considered in the two-dimensional plane-strain condition. It is assumed that identical cracks are distributed uniformly in space and that the effective waves propagate normal to the crack surfaces. Then, the apparent dispersion and attenuation are calculated as functions of frequency for three independent modes of wave propagation: SV, P and SH.The calculated results show that, in each case, the attenuation coefficient Q^?1 takes a peak value when the wavelength is nearly twice the crack width, while phase velocity has a maximum deviation from the intrinsic value at a frequency lower than the peak frequency for Q^?1.     

Volatile elements in chondrites: metamorphism or nebular fractionation?

Three of the most highly metamorphosed meteorites of their respective classes, Shaw (LL7), Karoonda (C5), and Coolidge (C4), were analyzed by radiochemical neutron activation analysis for Ag, Au, Bi, Br, Cd, Cs, Ge, In, Ir, Ni, Os, Pd, Rb, Re, Sb, Se, Te, Tl, U, and Zn. Comparison with data by Lipschutz and coworkers on artificially heated primitive meteorites shows that the natural metamorphism of meteorites cannot have taken place in a system open to volatiles. Shaw, metamorphosed at 1300°C for >10⁶ yr, is less depleted in In, Bi, Ag, Te, Zn, and Tl than Krymka heated at 1000°C for 1 week. Karoonda, metamorphosed at 600°C for many millennia, is less depleted in Bi and Tl than Allende heated at 600°C for 1 week.Data on primordial noble gases also show that the volatile-element patterns of ordinary and carbonaceous chondrites were established by nebular condensation, and changed little if at all during metamorphism. For enstatite chondrites, the evidence is still incomplete, but seems to favor a nebular origin of the volatile pattern.The general constancy of Tl/Rb, Tl/Cs and Tl/U ratios in terrestrial and lunar rocks suggests that loss of volatile metals such as Tl is rare during normal magmatism or metamorphism. Only impact melts show such loss with any frequency.     

Iron–bentonite interactions in the Kawasaki bentonite deposit,Zao area,Japan

Greenish veins occurring in brecciated bentonite were found in the Kawasaki bentonite deposit of the Zao region in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. Their occurrence possibly indicates the interaction of bentonite with Fe-rich hydrothermal solutions. In order to prove the hypothesis and understand the long-term mineralogical and petrographic evolution of bentonite during such interactions, the greenish veins and the surrounding altered bentonite were analyzed using X-ray fluorescence (XRF), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD), electron probe micro-analysis (EPMA), scanning transmission electron microscopy with energy dispersed spectroscopy (STEM-EDS) and micro X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES). The greenish veins resulting from hydrothermal solution are composed of mixed-layer minerals consisting of smectite and glauconite (glaucony), pyrite and opal. The occurrences indicate that glaucony and pyrite formed almost simultaneously from hydrothermal solution prior to opal precipitation. The mineral assemblages of the greenish veins and their surroundings indicate that the hydrothermal activity had most likely taken place at a temperature of less than 100 °C and that the pH and Eh conditions of the reacted solution were neutral to alkaline pH and reducing. The unaltered bentonite is composed mainly of Al smectite and opal. These minerals coexist as a mixture within the resolution level of the microprobe analyses. On the other hand, the bentonite in contact with the greenish veins consists of discrete opal grains and dioctahedral Al smectite containing Fe and was altered mineralogically and petrographically by the hydrothermal activity. Both the clay minerals and the opal were formed by dissolution and subsequent precipitation from the interaction of the original bentonite with the hydrothermal solution.     

New buoy observation system for tsunami and crustal deformation

We have developed a new system for real-time observation of tsunamis and crustal deformation using a seafloor pressure sensor, an array of seafloor transponders and a Precise Point Positioning (PPP ) system on a buoy. The seafloor pressure sensor and the PPP system detect tsunamis, and the pressure sensor and the transponder array measure crustal deformation. The system is designed to be capable of detecting tsunami and vertical crustal deformation of ±8 m with a resolution of less than 5 mm. A noteworthy innovation in our system is its resistance to disturbance by strong ocean currents. Seismogenic zones near Japan lie in areas of strong currents like the Kuroshio, which reaches speeds of approximately 5.5 kt (2.8 m/s) around the Nankai Trough. Our techniques include slack mooring and new acoustic transmission methods using double pulses for sending tsunami data. The slack ratio can be specified for the environment of the deployment location. We can adjust slack ratios, rope lengths, anchor weights and buoy sizes to control the ability of the buoy system to maintain freeboard. The measured pressure data is converted to time difference of a double pulse and this simple method is effective to save battery to transmit data. The time difference of the double pulse has error due to move of the buoy and fluctuation of the seawater environment. We set a wire-end station 1,000 m beneath the buoy to minimize the error. The crustal deformation data is measured by acoustic ranging between the buoy and six transponders on the seafloor. All pressure and crustal deformation data are sent to land station in real-time using iridium communication.     

Structural characteristics controlling the seismicity crustal structure of southern Japan Trench fore-arc region, revealed by ocean bottom seismographic data

The Japan Trench is a plate convergent zone where the Pacific Plate is subducting below the Japanese islands. Many earthquakes occur associated with plate convergence, and the hypocenter distribution is variable along the Japan Trench. In order to investigate the detailed structure in the southern Japan Trench and to understand the variation of seismicity around the Japan Trench, a wide-angle seismic survey was conducted in the southern Japan Trench fore-arc region in 1998. Ocean bottom seismometers (15) were deployed on two seismic lines: one parallel to the trench axis and one perpendicular. Velocity structures along two seismic lines were determined by velocity modeling of travel time ray-tracing method. Results from the experiment show that the island arc Moho is 18–20 km in depth and consists of four layers: Tertiary and Cretaceous sedimentary rocks, island arc upper and lower crust. The uppermost mantle of the island arc (mantle wedge) extends to 110 km landward of the trench axis. The P-wave velocity of the mantle wedge is laterally heterogeneous: 7.4 km/s at the tip of the mantle wedge and 7.9 km/s below the coastline. An interplate layer is constrained in the subducting oceanic crust. The thickness of the interplate layer is about 1 km for a velocity of 4 km/s. Interplate layer at the plate boundary may cause weak interplate coupling and low seismicity near the trench axis. Low P-wave velocity mantle wedge is also consistent with weak interplate coupling. Thick interplate layer and heterogeneous P-wave velocity of mantle wedge may be associated with the variation of seismic activity.     

Forecasting the effects of global warming on radial growth of subalpine trees at the upper and lower distribution limits in central Japan

Effects of global warming on radial growth were examined for the subalpine tree species Abies veitchii (1600–2200 m?a.s.l.), A. mariesii (2000–2500 m?a.s.l.) and Betula ermanii (1600–2500 m?a.s.l.) in central Japan, by using dendrochronological techniques. Chronologies of tree-ring widths were examined for the three species and of maximum latewood densities for the two Abies species at their upper and lower distribution limits (total 10 chronologies). We developed multiple regression models to reproduce these chronologies from the monthly mean temperature and sum of precipitation. Of the 10 chronologies, growth-climate relations could not be modeled for tree-ring width chronologies of the three species at their lower distribution limits because of low correlation. Annual mean temperature and annual sum of precipitation will increase about 3 °C and 100 mm, respectively, by 2100 in central Japan, according to 18 climatic change scenarios (6 general circulation models ×3 greenhouse gasses emission scenarios). We predicted tree-ring widths and maximum latewood densities by substituting 18 climatic change scenarios into the growth-climate models. Maximum latewood densities and tree-ring widths of A. mariesii at the upper and lower distribution limits increased by 2100. The rates of the increase tended to be greater for scenarios with more greenhouse gas emission. By contrast, maximum latewood densities of A. veitchii and tree-ring widths of B. ermanii were unchanged by 2100, irrespective of the three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. This study showed that radial growth of the three species responds differently to global warming and their responses are predictable by dendrochronological models.     

Composition of rare earth elements in settling particles collected in the highly productive North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea: Implications for siliceous-matter dissolution kinetics and formation of two REE-enriched phases

Settling particles were sampled monthly for 1 year using an automated time-series sediment trap positioned at similar depths at two sites of high diatomaceous productivity in the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea. The particles were analyzed for rare earth elements (REEs) by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) with and without chemical treatment of the bulk samples to isolate siliceous fractions. The REE composition of the bulk samples is explained largely by the contribution of two distinct components: (i) carbonate with a higher REE concentration, a negative Ce anomaly and lighter REE (LREE) enrichment; (ii) opal with a lower REE concentration, a weaker negative Ce anomaly and heavier REE (HREE) enrichment.The siliceous fractions of settling particles are characterized by high Si/Al ratios (30-190), reflecting high diatom productivity at the studied sites. The La/Al ratio of the siliceous fraction is close to that of the upper crust, but the Lu/Al and Lu/La ratios are significantly higher than those of the upper crust or airborne particles, indicating the presence of excess HREEs in the siliceous fraction. Diatoms are believed to be important carriers of HREEs.The Ce anomaly, Eu anomaly, slope of the REE pattern, and ΣREE of the siliceous fraction vary exponentially with decreasing total mass flux. They can be well-reproduced according to the differential dissolution kinetics of elements in the order of Ce < lighter REEs (LREEs) < Eu = heavier REEs (HREEs) < Si from settling particles, where the dissolution rate is critically reduced through particle aggregation. This order is consistent with the vertical distribution of dissolved REEs and Si in oceans. The differential dissolution kinetics leads to HREE enrichment of the original diatoms and REE enrichment of dissolved diatoms. The Lu/Si ratio of the siliceous fraction of settling particles recovered from some of the highest diatom fluxes is identical to that of the two elements dissolved in deep seawater, providing further evidence for the dissolution of siliceous matter in deep water.     

Coseismic deformations of the Earth’s surface in Sakhalin related to the August 2, 2007, M w = 6.2 Nevelsk earthquake

The satellite radiointerferometry data revealed deformations of the coastal part of Sakhalin Island caused by the earthquake with M _w = 6.2 that occurred in the Tatar Strait near Nevelsk. Based on the joint analysis of the satellite and seismological data, dislocation models were contrived for the main shock and its strong aftershocks with the western dip of the fault planes. This made it possible to determine the source mechanisms and the geometrical parameters of the seismic ruptures and to calculate the coseismic vertical and horizontal displacements. In contrast to the one-dimensional model of the insular land displacements determined from the satellite radiointerferometry measurements, this provided a three-dimensional model of the surface deformations for the epicentral zone.     

AMS 14C ages and petrological features for solidified fractures with carbonates at coastal outcrops of Yakushima Island, Japan

This paper describes the petrological features and the ages of rock fractures filled mainly with carbonates at coastal outcrops of Yakushima Island, Japan. Microscopic observation and geochemical analysis were used to investigate the petrological features and the compositions of the fracture fillings. In addition, AMS ¹⁴C dating was also performed to estimate the ages of them. Microscopic study indicated that the fracture fillings contain not only cementing materials but also lithic fragments from host rock and bioclasts. SEM observation showed that the cements exhibit the characteristic textures of beachrocks. The cements were identified as Mg-calcite from XRD analysis. It was also observed from geochemical analysis that there were at least two stages of precipitation within the fractures. In addition, AMS ¹⁴C dating for seventeen samples of fracture fillings showed that the ages range from 2,460 to 5,130 years BP which is found to be younger than that of the uplifted coral at Yakushima Island (approximately 5,300–5,600 years BP). The results suggest that the fractures were solidified after the coral was uplifted.